Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach

Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance...

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Main Authors:	M., Abdesselam, Karim, A.N. Mustafizul, Kays, H. M. Emrul, Sarker, R. A.
Format:	Article
Language:	English English
Published:	Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland 2014
Subjects:	T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management
Online Access:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf

id	iium-41840
recordtype	eprints
spelling	iium-418402017-09-07T07:52:04Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance of more accurate demand prediction cannot be exaggerated. This research presents a forecasting approach tailoring the multiplicative Holt-Winters method with growth adjustment through incorporation of fuzzy logic. The growth parameter of the time series values is adjusted with the conventional Holt-Winters method and tested for predicting the real-life demand of transformer tank experienced by a local company. The result obtained by applying the new approach shows a significant improvement in the accuracy of the forecasted demand and sheds light on further enhancement of the proposed method by optimizing other time series parameters through fuzzy logic application for possible application in prediction of demand having trend, seasonal and cyclical changes. Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland 2014 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf M., Abdesselam and Karim, A.N. Mustafizul and Kays, H. M. Emrul and Sarker, R. A. (2014) Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach. Advanced Materials Research, 529. pp. 402-407. ISSN 1022-6680 http://www.ttp.net/1660-9336.html doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.529.402
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	International Islamic University Malaysia
building	IIUM Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English English
topic	T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management
spellingShingle	T57 Applied mathematics. Quantitative methods. Operation research. System analysis TA190 Management of engineering works TS155 Production management M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A. Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
description	Irrespective of the type of items manufactured by an industry, environment is now becoming progressively more and more competitive than the past few decades. To sustain in this severe competition, companies have no choice but to manage their operations optimally and in this respect the importance of more accurate demand prediction cannot be exaggerated. This research presents a forecasting approach tailoring the multiplicative Holt-Winters method with growth adjustment through incorporation of fuzzy logic. The growth parameter of the time series values is adjusted with the conventional Holt-Winters method and tested for predicting the real-life demand of transformer tank experienced by a local company. The result obtained by applying the new approach shows a significant improvement in the accuracy of the forecasted demand and sheds light on further enhancement of the proposed method by optimizing other time series parameters through fuzzy logic application for possible application in prediction of demand having trend, seasonal and cyclical changes.
format	Article
author	M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A.
author_facet	M., Abdesselam Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Kays, H. M. Emrul Sarker, R. A.
author_sort	M., Abdesselam
title	Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
title_short	Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
title_full	Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
title_fullStr	Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
title_full_unstemmed	Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
title_sort	forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach
publisher	Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland
publishDate	2014
url	http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/1/%2329_AMM.529.402_Feb_2014.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/41840/4/41840_Forecasting%20demand_Scopus.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T20:59:47Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T20:59:47Z
_version_	1777410545934139392

Forecasting demand: development of a fuzzy growth adjusted holt-winters approach

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