Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Penerbit Akademia Baru
2017
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf |
| Summary: | Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In
Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention
programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies
according to states and districts where cases are more distinct in urban and suburban
areas. Preparedness strategies of dengue cases could be more successful with some
comprehensive and technical analysis on disease incidences. Hence, the present study
analyses dengue cases using mathematical modelling in the state of Penang, one of the
more urbanised state. In particular, two time series models are fitted to the dengue
data from the region in order to identify the mathematical model that best describe
the data. Results show that both proposed models are able to represent the cases
rather well; however numerical inspection revealed that Double Exponential
Smoothing method is the better choice. Subsequently, the identified model is used to
make forecasting on the number of expected cases. Results show that dengue cases in
Penang are expected to increase gradually. |
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