Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia

Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases...

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Main Authors:	Abas, Norzaida, Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah, Abdul Halim, Syafrina, Osman, Noor Shazwani
Format:	Article
Language:	English
Published:	Penerbit Akademia Baru 2017
Subjects:	QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf

id	iium-58363
recordtype	eprints
spelling	iium-583632018-01-12T12:17:22Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia Abas, Norzaida Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah Abdul Halim, Syafrina Osman, Noor Shazwani QA Mathematics Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases are more distinct in urban and suburban areas. Preparedness strategies of dengue cases could be more successful with some comprehensive and technical analysis on disease incidences. Hence, the present study analyses dengue cases using mathematical modelling in the state of Penang, one of the more urbanised state. In particular, two time series models are fitted to the dengue data from the region in order to identify the mathematical model that best describe the data. Results show that both proposed models are able to represent the cases rather well; however numerical inspection revealed that Double Exponential Smoothing method is the better choice. Subsequently, the identified model is used to make forecasting on the number of expected cases. Results show that dengue cases in Penang are expected to increase gradually. Penerbit Akademia Baru 2017-10 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf Abas, Norzaida and Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah and Abdul Halim, Syafrina and Osman, Noor Shazwani (2017) Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia. Journal of Advanced Research Design, 37 (1). pp. 9-15. ISSN 2289-7984 http://www.akademiabaru.com/doc/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	International Islamic University Malaysia
building	IIUM Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English
topic	QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	QA Mathematics Abas, Norzaida Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah Abdul Halim, Syafrina Osman, Noor Shazwani Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
description	Dengue fever is an endemic disease in many tropical and subtropical regions. In Malaysia, it is the leading public health challenge despite the extensive intervention programs by the related authorities. Distribution of dengue cases in Malaysia varies according to states and districts where cases are more distinct in urban and suburban areas. Preparedness strategies of dengue cases could be more successful with some comprehensive and technical analysis on disease incidences. Hence, the present study analyses dengue cases using mathematical modelling in the state of Penang, one of the more urbanised state. In particular, two time series models are fitted to the dengue data from the region in order to identify the mathematical model that best describe the data. Results show that both proposed models are able to represent the cases rather well; however numerical inspection revealed that Double Exponential Smoothing method is the better choice. Subsequently, the identified model is used to make forecasting on the number of expected cases. Results show that dengue cases in Penang are expected to increase gradually.
format	Article
author	Abas, Norzaida Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah Abdul Halim, Syafrina Osman, Noor Shazwani
author_facet	Abas, Norzaida Mohd Shamsuddin, Rafidah Abdul Halim, Syafrina Osman, Noor Shazwani
author_sort	Abas, Norzaida
title	Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_short	Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_full	Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_fullStr	Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia
title_sort	mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in penang, malaysia
publisher	Penerbit Akademia Baru
publishDate	2017
url	http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/58363/1/ARDV37_N1_P9_15.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T21:22:31Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T21:22:31Z
_version_	1777411976170831872

Mathematical modelling of dengue pattern in Penang, Malaysia

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