A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component

The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing...

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Main Authors:	Kays, H. M.Emrul, Karim, A.N. Mustafizul, Che Daud, Mohd Radzi, Varela, Leonilde, Putnik, Göran, Machado, Jose
Format:	Article
Language:	English English English
Published:	Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) 2018
Subjects:	TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements TS Manufactures
Online Access:	http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf

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spelling	iium-639272019-01-24T01:29:56Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component Kays, H. M.Emrul Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Che Daud, Mohd Radzi Varela, Leonilde Putnik, Göran Machado, Jose TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements TS Manufactures The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing constants are incorporated by a recursion process to estimate and update the level (LT), growth rate (bT) and seasonal component (SNT). The current practice of integrating and/or determining the initial value of LT is a stationary process, as it restricts the scope of adjustment with the progression of time and, thereby, the forecasting accuracy is compromised, while the periodic updating of LT is avoided, presumably due to the computational complexity. To overcome this obstacle, a fuzzy logic-based prediction model is developed to evaluate LT dynamically and to embed its value into the conventional MHW approach. The developed model is implemented in the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox along with an optimal smoothing constant-seeking program. The new model, proposed as a collaborative approach, is tested with real-life data gathered from a local manufacturer and also for two industrial cases extracted from literature. In all cases, a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy is achieved. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) 2018-03-30 Article NonPeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf Kays, H. M.Emrul and Karim, A.N. Mustafizul and Che Daud, Mohd Radzi and Varela, Leonilde and Putnik, Göran and Machado, Jose (2018) A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 8 (4). pp. 1-28. ISSN 2076-3417 http://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/8/4/530 10.3390/app8040530
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Local University
institution	International Islamic University Malaysia
building	IIUM Repository
collection	Online Access
language	English English English
topic	TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements TS Manufactures
spellingShingle	TE Highway engineering. Roads and pavements TS Manufactures Kays, H. M.Emrul Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Che Daud, Mohd Radzi Varela, Leonilde Putnik, Göran Machado, Jose A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
description	The adoption of forecasting approaches such as the multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) model is preferred in business, especially for the prediction of future events having seasonal and other causal variations. However, in the MHW model the initial values of the time-series parameters and smoothing constants are incorporated by a recursion process to estimate and update the level (LT), growth rate (bT) and seasonal component (SNT). The current practice of integrating and/or determining the initial value of LT is a stationary process, as it restricts the scope of adjustment with the progression of time and, thereby, the forecasting accuracy is compromised, while the periodic updating of LT is avoided, presumably due to the computational complexity. To overcome this obstacle, a fuzzy logic-based prediction model is developed to evaluate LT dynamically and to embed its value into the conventional MHW approach. The developed model is implemented in the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox along with an optimal smoothing constant-seeking program. The new model, proposed as a collaborative approach, is tested with real-life data gathered from a local manufacturer and also for two industrial cases extracted from literature. In all cases, a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy is achieved.
format	Article
author	Kays, H. M.Emrul Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Che Daud, Mohd Radzi Varela, Leonilde Putnik, Göran Machado, Jose
author_facet	Kays, H. M.Emrul Karim, A.N. Mustafizul Che Daud, Mohd Radzi Varela, Leonilde Putnik, Göran Machado, Jose
author_sort	Kays, H. M.Emrul
title	A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_short	A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_full	A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_fullStr	A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_full_unstemmed	A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
title_sort	collaborative multiplicative holt-winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component
publisher	Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
publishDate	2018
url	http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/ http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/1/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_article.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/2/63927_A%20Collaborative%20Multiplicative%20Holt-Winters_scopus.pdf http://irep.iium.edu.my/63927/13/63927_A%20collaborative%20multiplicative%20Holt-Winters%20forecasting%20approach%20with%20dynamic%20fuzzy-level%20component_WOS.pdf
first_indexed	2023-09-18T21:30:40Z
last_indexed	2023-09-18T21:30:40Z
_version_	1777412489354412032

A collaborative multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting approach with dynamic fuzzy-level component

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