Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia

Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia

Tourism industry has become one of the main sources for Malaysia's income. It affects other sectors such as hotels, retail businesses and transportations. Thus, it is important to monitor the development of tourism industry, so that proper planning can be enforced. Therefore, forecasting by usi...

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Main Authors: Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum, Jamal, Nur Nabilah, Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah
Format: Conference or Workshop Item
Language:English
Published: Kulliyyah of Languages and Management, International Islamic University Malaysia 2019
Subjects:
H Social Sciences (General)
HA Statistics
Online Access:http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/
http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/
http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/10/ILTC%20TOURIST%20STATISTIC.pdf
id iium-77875
recordtype eprints
spelling iium-778752020-02-12T06:46:02Z http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/ Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum Jamal, Nur Nabilah Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah H Social Sciences (General) HA Statistics Tourism industry has become one of the main sources for Malaysia's income. It affects other sectors such as hotels, retail businesses and transportations. Thus, it is important to monitor the development of tourism industry, so that proper planning can be enforced. Therefore, forecasting by using time series analysis, which is the Box-Jenkins method will be discussed here to provide future information to support the decision-making processes. The forecast performance has been compared by using magnitude error measurements. The empirical result shown that SARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 is the best model in forecasting tourist arrivals with only 8% different between 12 of the actual and forecast values. Kulliyyah of Languages and Management, International Islamic University Malaysia 2019 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/10/ILTC%20TOURIST%20STATISTIC.pdf Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum and Jamal, Nur Nabilah and Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah (2019) Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia. In: 3rd International Language & Tourism Conference 2019, 18th - 19th October 2019, Pagoh Edu Hub, Muar, Johor. https://conference.iium.edu.my/iltc2019/
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Local University
institution International Islamic University Malaysia
building IIUM Repository
collection Online Access
language English
topic H Social Sciences (General)
HA Statistics
spellingShingle H Social Sciences (General)
HA Statistics
Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum
Jamal, Nur Nabilah
Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah
Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
description Tourism industry has become one of the main sources for Malaysia's income. It affects other sectors such as hotels, retail businesses and transportations. Thus, it is important to monitor the development of tourism industry, so that proper planning can be enforced. Therefore, forecasting by using time series analysis, which is the Box-Jenkins method will be discussed here to provide future information to support the decision-making processes. The forecast performance has been compared by using magnitude error measurements. The empirical result shown that SARIMA (0,1,0)(0,1,1)12 is the best model in forecasting tourist arrivals with only 8% different between 12 of the actual and forecast values.
format Conference or Workshop Item
author Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum
Jamal, Nur Nabilah
Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah
author_facet Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum
Jamal, Nur Nabilah
Abd Rahman, Nur Hidayah
author_sort Abd Rahman, Nur Haizum
title Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
title_short Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
title_full Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
title_fullStr Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed Modeling and forecasting: A case study of tourist arrivals in Malaysia
title_sort modeling and forecasting: a case study of tourist arrivals in malaysia
publisher Kulliyyah of Languages and Management, International Islamic University Malaysia
publishDate 2019
url http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/
http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/
http://irep.iium.edu.my/77875/10/ILTC%20TOURIST%20STATISTIC.pdf
first_indexed 2023-09-18T21:49:48Z
last_indexed 2023-09-18T21:49:48Z
_version_ 1777413692504145920

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