Social Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in Latin America : Some Preliminary, and Surprisingly Optimistic, Conjectures
Surprisingly, the most severe economic crisis the world has seen since the great depression does not appear to have had as dramatic an impact on poverty in Latin America as might have been expected. The exceptions to this heartening assessment are...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2009/11/11953778/social-consequences-global-financial-crisis-latin-america-some-preliminary-surprisingly-optimistic-conjectures http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10957 |
| Summary: | Surprisingly, the most severe economic
crisis the world has seen since the great depression does
not appear to have had as dramatic an impact on poverty in
Latin America as might have been expected. The exceptions to
this heartening assessment are the countries geographically
and economically closest to the United States, chiefly
Mexico. Elsewhere, although poverty statistics for 2008-09
are not yet available, the data on output, unemployment and
real wages suggest relatively modest changes in poverty.
There are two candidate explanations for the
smaller-than-expected increases in poverty in Latin America:
lower output declines, deriving from enhanced protection
against external shocks; and a lower output elasticity of
poverty. If the latter is indeed observed when the required
data becomes available, the report conjecture that it may
reflect both the lower inflation rates now prevalent in the
region, and recent reforms in the social protection system.
For all their faults, the social protection systems in many
Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries now reach the
poor rather than only the middle-classes. The note concludes
arguing against complacency, and pointing to areas where
further research; and greater policy reform and
experimentation are needed. |
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