Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
One statement that can confidently be made about any transport project is that the costs and benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which surrounds the project the probabili...
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| Format: | Brief |
| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6371365/risk-uncertainty-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11793 |
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okr-10986-117932021-04-23T14:02:57Z Risk and Uncertainty Analysis Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James ANALYSIS PERIOD APPLICATIONS BRIDGE BRIDGES CALCULATION CAR OWNERSHIP CONFIDENCE LIMITS CONSTRUCTION CONSUMERS COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE ECONOMIC BOOM ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FUEL GENERATED TRAFFIC INCOME INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PASSENGER PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RATES RISK ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT RISK AVERSE RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PROFILES RISK TRANSFER RURAL ROADS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS STRUCTURES SUSTAINABILITY TRAFFIC TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC RISK TRAFFIC VOLUME TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT PROJECTS TUNNELS One statement that can confidently be made about any transport project is that the costs and benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools, such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads). This note reviews the general principles of risk and uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity analysis (Sectio 2012-08-13T16:02:33Z 2012-08-13T16:02:33Z 2005-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6371365/risk-uncertainty-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11793 English Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 7 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Brief Publications & Research |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English |
| topic |
ANALYSIS PERIOD APPLICATIONS BRIDGE BRIDGES CALCULATION CAR OWNERSHIP CONFIDENCE LIMITS CONSTRUCTION CONSUMERS COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE ECONOMIC BOOM ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FUEL GENERATED TRAFFIC INCOME INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PASSENGER PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RATES RISK ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT RISK AVERSE RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PROFILES RISK TRANSFER RURAL ROADS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS STRUCTURES SUSTAINABILITY TRAFFIC TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC RISK TRAFFIC VOLUME TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT PROJECTS TUNNELS |
| spellingShingle |
ANALYSIS PERIOD APPLICATIONS BRIDGE BRIDGES CALCULATION CAR OWNERSHIP CONFIDENCE LIMITS CONSTRUCTION CONSUMERS COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS DISCOUNT RATE ECONOMIC BOOM ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FRAMEWORK FUEL GENERATED TRAFFIC INCOME INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PASSENGER PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION RATES RISK ANALYSIS RISK ASSESSMENT RISK AVERSE RISK MANAGEMENT RISK PROFILES RISK TRANSFER RURAL ROADS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS STRUCTURES SUSTAINABILITY TRAFFIC TRAFFIC GROWTH TRAFFIC RISK TRAFFIC VOLUME TRANSPORT TRANSPORT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT PROJECTS TUNNELS Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| relation |
Transport Notes Series; No. TRN 7 |
| description |
One statement that can confidently be
made about any transport project is that the costs and
benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how
uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which
surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can
be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify
ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to
ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and
uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in
the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk
and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools,
such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads).
This note reviews the general principles of risk and
uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines
the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity
analysis (Sectio |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Brief |
| author |
Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James |
| author_facet |
Mackie, Peter Nellthorp, John Laird, James |
| author_sort |
Mackie, Peter |
| title |
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_short |
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_full |
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Risk and Uncertainty Analysis |
| title_sort |
risk and uncertainty analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2012 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6371365/risk-uncertainty-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11793 |
| _version_ |
1764418015544213504 |