Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy

This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get re...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Ley, Eduardo, Misch, Florian
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF DEBT ADVANCED COUNTRIES CHECKS CONTINGENCY PLANS DATA ANALYSIS DEBT DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT CRISES DEBT REDUCTION DEBT REDUCTIONS DEFICITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELASTICITY EURO EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS FACE VALUE FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FISCAL MANAGEMENT FISCAL PLANNING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FORECASTS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOMES INFLATION INSTRUMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK LEVEL OF DEBT LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MODELING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MULTIPLIERS NATIONAL BANK NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES OUTPUT OUTPUT GAP OUTPUT GAPS POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY POTENTIAL OUTPUT PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SPENDING RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS SCENARIO SIMULATION SIMULATIONS TAX TRACK RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17150429/real-time-macro-monitoring-fiscal-policy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12194

id	okr-10986-12194
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-121942021-04-23T14:03:06Z Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy Ley, Eduardo Misch, Florian ACCOUNTING ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF DEBT ADVANCED COUNTRIES CHECKS CONTINGENCY PLANS DATA ANALYSIS DEBT DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT CRISES DEBT REDUCTION DEBT REDUCTIONS DEFICITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELASTICITY EURO EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS FACE VALUE FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FISCAL MANAGEMENT FISCAL PLANNING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FORECASTS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOMES INFLATION INSTRUMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK LEVEL OF DEBT LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MODELING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MULTIPLIERS NATIONAL BANK NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES OUTPUT OUTPUT GAP OUTPUT GAPS POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY POTENTIAL OUTPUT PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SPENDING RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS SCENARIO SIMULATION SIMULATIONS TAX TRACK RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation. 2013-01-29T17:37:43Z 2013-01-29T17:37:43Z 2013-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17150429/real-time-macro-monitoring-fiscal-policy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12194 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper; No. 6303 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ACCOUNTING ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF DEBT ADVANCED COUNTRIES CHECKS CONTINGENCY PLANS DATA ANALYSIS DEBT DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT CRISES DEBT REDUCTION DEBT REDUCTIONS DEFICITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELASTICITY EURO EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS FACE VALUE FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FISCAL MANAGEMENT FISCAL PLANNING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FORECASTS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOMES INFLATION INSTRUMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK LEVEL OF DEBT LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MODELING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MULTIPLIERS NATIONAL BANK NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES OUTPUT OUTPUT GAP OUTPUT GAPS POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY POTENTIAL OUTPUT PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SPENDING RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS SCENARIO SIMULATION SIMULATIONS TAX TRACK RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT
spellingShingle	ACCOUNTING ACCRUAL ACCOUNTING ACCUMULATION OF DEBT ADVANCED COUNTRIES CHECKS CONTINGENCY PLANS DATA ANALYSIS DEBT DEBT ACCUMULATION DEBT CRISES DEBT REDUCTION DEBT REDUCTIONS DEFICITS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ECONOMIC FORECASTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC RESEARCH ELASTICITY EURO EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS FACE VALUE FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FISCAL MANAGEMENT FISCAL PLANNING FISCAL POLICY FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY FORECASTS FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME GROUPS INCOMES INFLATION INSTRUMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK LEVEL OF DEBT LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIDDLE-INCOME ECONOMIES MODELING MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MULTIPLIERS NATIONAL BANK NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES OUTPUT OUTPUT GAP OUTPUT GAPS POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS POLITICAL ECONOMY POTENTIAL OUTPUT PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC SPENDING RELIABILITY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS SCENARIO SIMULATION SIMULATIONS TAX TRACK RECORD UNEMPLOYMENT Ley, Eduardo Misch, Florian Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
relation	Policy Research Working Paper; No. 6303
description	This paper considers the effects of inaccurate real-time output data on fiscal management, both with respect to budgetary planning and fiscal surveillance. As newer and better information becomes available, output data available in real time get revised and are likely to conflict with final figures that are only released some years later. Nevertheless, fiscal policy needs to be inevitably based on real-time figures. The paper develops a simple modeling framework to formalize these linkages and combines it with a newly compiled dataset from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, comprising final and real-time output data for 175 countries, over a period of 17 years. We simulate the effects of output revisions on revisions of the overall balance, the structural balance and debt accumulation. It finds that output revisions may have substantial effects on the ability of governments to correctly estimate the overall balance and the structural fiscal balance in real time, and that the effects may imply substantial debt accumulation.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Ley, Eduardo Misch, Florian
author_facet	Ley, Eduardo Misch, Florian
author_sort	Ley, Eduardo
title	Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
title_short	Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
title_full	Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
title_fullStr	Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
title_full_unstemmed	Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy
title_sort	real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2013
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17150429/real-time-macro-monitoring-fiscal-policy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/12194
_version_	1764422194650152960

Real-Time Macro Monitoring and Fiscal Policy

Similar Items