What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?
Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets but also the survival and growth of export flows. For a cross-country dataset of product-level bilateral export flows, exporting is found to be a perilous activity, especially in low-income count...
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World Bank
2013
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| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13450 |
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okr-10986-134502021-04-23T14:03:08Z What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik bilateral trade econometric analysis economic size expected return export growth exports fixed costs GDP income income groups income levels international trade middle income countries perfect information production costs trade diversion trade liberalization trade policy transition economies wealth export survival Cox proportional hazard low-income countries Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets but also the survival and growth of export flows. For a cross-country dataset of product-level bilateral export flows, exporting is found to be a perilous activity, especially in low-income countries. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails even when a wide range of observed country and product characteristics are controlled for. This questions previous studies that used the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze export survival. Following Meyer (1990), a Prentice-Gloeckler (1978) model is estimated, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of product- as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of new export flows. Important for policymaking is the finding of the value of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market is found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies. 2013-05-16T19:15:25Z 2013-05-16T19:15:25Z 2011-03-30 Journal Article World Bank Economic Review 1564-698X http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13450 en_US World Bank Economic Review;24(3) CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank World Bank Journal Article |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
en_US |
| topic |
bilateral trade econometric analysis economic size expected return export growth exports fixed costs GDP income income groups income levels international trade middle income countries perfect information production costs trade diversion trade liberalization trade policy transition economies wealth export survival Cox proportional hazard low-income countries |
| spellingShingle |
bilateral trade econometric analysis economic size expected return export growth exports fixed costs GDP income income groups income levels international trade middle income countries perfect information production costs trade diversion trade liberalization trade policy transition economies wealth export survival Cox proportional hazard low-income countries Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| relation |
World Bank Economic Review;24(3) |
| description |
Successful export growth and diversification require not only entry into new export products and markets but also the survival and growth of export flows. For a cross-country dataset of product-level bilateral export flows, exporting is found to be a perilous activity, especially in low-income countries. Unobserved individual heterogeneity in product-level export flow data prevails even when a wide range of observed country and product characteristics are controlled for. This questions previous studies that used the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze export survival. Following Meyer (1990), a Prentice-Gloeckler (1978) model is estimated, amended with a gamma mixture distribution summarizing unobserved individual heterogeneity. The empirical results confirm the significance of a range of product- as well as country-specific factors in determining the survival of new export flows. Important for policymaking is the finding of the value of learning-by-doing for export survival: experience with exporting the same product to other markets or different products to the same market is found to strongly increase the chance of export survival. A better understanding of such learning effects could substantially improve the effectiveness of export promotion strategies. |
| format |
Journal Article |
| author |
Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik |
| author_facet |
Brenton, Paul Saborowski, Christian von Uexkull, Erik |
| author_sort |
Brenton, Paul |
| title |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_short |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_full |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_fullStr |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows? |
| title_sort |
what explains the low survival rate of developing country export flows? |
| publisher |
World Bank |
| publishDate |
2013 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13450 |
| _version_ |
1764423530306338816 |