Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002
Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely tr...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/10/5278822/growth-inequality-simulated-poverty-paths-tanzania-1992-2002 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14210 |
| Summary: | Although Tanzania experienced relatively
rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period,
household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and
statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992
and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates
over the course of the period, changes in poverty are
simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts
growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and
inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of
Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that
is better suited to taking into account distributional
changes observed between the two household surveys. The
simulations suggest that following increases in poverty
during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent
growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty,
particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is
sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium
Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in
urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down
poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires
sustaining high growth in rural output per capita. |
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