Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance

After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in d...

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Main Authors:	Devarajan, Shantayanan, Go, Delfin S., Maliszewska, Maryla, Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, Timmer, Hans
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2013
Subjects:	ADVERSE EFFECTS ADVERSE IMPACT AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INCREASES CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL SURPLUSES CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONFLICT CONSUMERS COUNTERFACTUAL DAMAGES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DENSITY FUNCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DROUGHT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ELASTICITY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR PRICES FAMINE FINANCIAL CAPITAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOW FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INFLOWS FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD IMPORTS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCT FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL LEVEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS IMPACT ON POVERTY INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME ELASTICITY INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS LABOR FORCE LDCS LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LONG RUN LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER DEMAND LOWER PRICES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL RETURNS MICRO MODEL MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES NATIONAL ECONOMIES NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET CAPITAL OIL EXPORTERS OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTION OIL SECTOR PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POOR POPULOUS COUNTRIES POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE OF OIL PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC EXPENDITURES REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP RECESSION REDUCING POVERTY REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICES RICH COUNTRIES RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INCOME RURAL POVERTY SAVINGS SCENARIOS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT STATE INTERVENTIONS SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE SUPPLY SHOCK TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE SHOCKS UNEMPLOYMENT WAGES WORLD ECONOMY computable general equilibrium models CGE models
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935395/stress-testing-africas-recent-growth-poverty-performance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876

id	okr-10986-15876
recordtype	oai_dc
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ADVERSE EFFECTS ADVERSE IMPACT AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INCREASES CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL SURPLUSES CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONFLICT CONSUMERS COUNTERFACTUAL DAMAGES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DENSITY FUNCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DROUGHT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ELASTICITY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR PRICES FAMINE FINANCIAL CAPITAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOW FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INFLOWS FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD IMPORTS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCT FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL LEVEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS IMPACT ON POVERTY INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME ELASTICITY INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS LABOR FORCE LDCS LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LONG RUN LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER DEMAND LOWER PRICES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL RETURNS MICRO MODEL MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES NATIONAL ECONOMIES NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET CAPITAL OIL EXPORTERS OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTION OIL SECTOR PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POOR POPULOUS COUNTRIES POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE OF OIL PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC EXPENDITURES REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP RECESSION REDUCING POVERTY REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICES RICH COUNTRIES RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INCOME RURAL POVERTY SAVINGS SCENARIOS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT STATE INTERVENTIONS SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE SUPPLY SHOCK TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE SHOCKS UNEMPLOYMENT WAGES WORLD ECONOMY computable general equilibrium models CGE models
spellingShingle	ADVERSE EFFECTS ADVERSE IMPACT AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INCREASES CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL SURPLUSES CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONFLICT CONSUMERS COUNTERFACTUAL DAMAGES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DENSITY FUNCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DROUGHT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ELASTICITY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR PRICES FAMINE FINANCIAL CAPITAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOW FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INFLOWS FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD IMPORTS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCT FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL LEVEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS IMPACT ON POVERTY INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME ELASTICITY INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS LABOR FORCE LDCS LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LONG RUN LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER DEMAND LOWER PRICES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL RETURNS MICRO MODEL MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES NATIONAL ECONOMIES NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET CAPITAL OIL EXPORTERS OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTION OIL SECTOR PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POOR POPULOUS COUNTRIES POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE OF OIL PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC EXPENDITURES REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP RECESSION REDUCING POVERTY REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICES RICH COUNTRIES RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INCOME RURAL POVERTY SAVINGS SCENARIOS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT STATE INTERVENTIONS SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE SUPPLY SHOCK TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE SHOCKS UNEMPLOYMENT WAGES WORLD ECONOMY computable general equilibrium models CGE models Devarajan, Shantayanan Go, Delfin S. Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Timmer, Hans Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
geographic_facet	Africa Africa
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6517
description	After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Devarajan, Shantayanan Go, Delfin S. Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Timmer, Hans
author_facet	Devarajan, Shantayanan Go, Delfin S. Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Timmer, Hans
author_sort	Devarajan, Shantayanan
title	Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
title_short	Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
title_full	Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
title_fullStr	Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
title_full_unstemmed	Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance
title_sort	stress-testing africa's recent growth and poverty performance
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2013
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935395/stress-testing-africas-recent-growth-poverty-performance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876
_version_	1764431831950688256
spelling	okr-10986-158762021-04-23T14:03:26Z Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance Devarajan, Shantayanan Go, Delfin S. Maliszewska, Maryla Osorio-Rodarte, Israel Timmer, Hans ADVERSE EFFECTS ADVERSE IMPACT AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME AVERAGE INCOMES BASE YEAR BENCHMARK CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FLIGHT CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INCREASES CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL SURPLUSES CIVIL WAR CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS COMMODITIES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICES COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE CONFLICT CONSUMERS COUNTERFACTUAL DAMAGES DEBT DEBT RELIEF DEMOGRAPHIC DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DENSITY FUNCTION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DEVELOPMENT REPORT DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME DIVERSIFICATION DOMESTIC PRODUCTION DROUGHT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ELASTICITY EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATES EXPORTS EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR PRICES FAMINE FINANCIAL CAPITAL FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOW FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INFLOWS FOOD EXPENDITURES FOOD IMPORTS FOOD POLICY FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD PRODUCT FOOD PRODUCTION FOOD PRODUCTS GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL LEVEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS IMPACT ON POVERTY INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME ELASTICITY INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS LABOR FORCE LDCS LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES LONG RUN LONG-TERM GROWTH LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES LOWER DEMAND LOWER PRICES MACROECONOMIC STABILITY MARGINAL COST MARGINAL RETURNS MICRO MODEL MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES NATIONAL ECONOMIES NATURAL DISASTERS NATURAL RESOURCES NEGATIVE IMPACT NET CAPITAL OIL EXPORTERS OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTION OIL SECTOR PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY RESEARCH POOR POPULOUS COUNTRIES POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE MOVEMENTS PRICE OF OIL PRIVATE INVESTMENT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC EXPENDITURES REAL EXCHANGE RATES REAL GDP RECESSION REDUCING POVERTY REGIONAL TRADE RELATIVE PRICES RICH COUNTRIES RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL INCOME RURAL POVERTY SAVINGS SCENARIOS SIGNIFICANT IMPACT STATE INTERVENTIONS SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE SUPPLY SHOCK TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS TOTAL CONSUMPTION TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE SHOCKS UNEMPLOYMENT WAGES WORLD ECONOMY computable general equilibrium models CGE models After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper "stress tests" African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance. 2013-09-26T18:32:15Z 2013-09-26T18:32:15Z 2013-06 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935395/stress-testing-africas-recent-growth-poverty-performance http://hdl.handle.net/10986/15876 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6517 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Africa Africa

Stress-Testing Africa's Recent Growth and Poverty Performance

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