Taking Stock, July 2013 : An Update on Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments
The global economy appears to be transitioning toward a period of more stable albeit moderate pace of growth. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which slowed in mid-2012, is recovering and a modest acceleration in quarterly GDP is expected during...
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Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
Hanoi
2013
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/07/18042915/taking-stock-update-vietnams-recent-economic-developments http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16258 |
Summary: | The global economy appears to be
transitioning toward a period of more stable albeit moderate
pace of growth. Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which
slowed in mid-2012, is recovering and a modest acceleration
in quarterly GDP is expected during the course of 2013. In
the developing world growth remains solid, but there are
some signs of easing. More than four years after the
financial crisis started, global industrial output is only
5.3 percent higher than its pre-crisis peak. While the
global financial market conditions continue to improve,
eventual phasing out of quantitative easing in advanced
economies is beginning to worry investors. The improvement
in financial conditions can be seen in lower yields on
long-term debt, higher stock market returns and near-record
flow of gross capital to developing countries.
Vietnam's economy is experiencing its longest spell of
slow growth since the onset of economic reforms in the
late-1980s. Real GDP grew by 5 percent in 2012, the lowest
level since 1998. The economy extended its slow growth into
the first half of 2013, registering a growth rate of 4.9
percent in the first quarter and 5 percent in the second
quarter. This is the first time that Vietnam has experienced
two consecutive years of sub-5 percent growth in the first
half of the year since it started publishing quarterly GDP.
In fact what had distinguished Vietnam from other countries
is its ability to recover rapidly after an economic shock-be
it during the East Asian crisis in 1999 or the global
financial crisis in 2009. However, Vietnam has found it
harder to take timely and decisive actions to jumpstart its
economy from the current growth slowdown. Vietnam is the
only large developing country in the East Asia and Pacific
region other than China whose post-crisis growth rate has
been lower than its pre-crisis level. |
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