Russian Economic Report, No. 29, Spring 2013 : Recovery and Beyond
Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net exports, negative base effects, and destocking at the end of the year. More than four years a...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17389712/russian-economic-report-recovery-beyond http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16565 |
| Summary: | Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent
in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of
Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net
exports, negative base effects, and destocking at the end of
the year. More than four years after the global financial
crisis hit, the world economy remains sluggish. Industrial
production lost momentum throughout last year, exports
expanded only at a moderate pace, and imports even declined
for three month during autumn 2012. Growth declined mainly
due to weaker performance of investment. Inventories were
flat as the restocking cycle after the crisis came to an
end, and fixed investment expanded only moderately as
business remained cautious about future prospects. The
weaker performance of the tradable sectors reflects sluggish
global demand and the poor agricultural harvest but also low
competitiveness in parts of the industry, as growth declined
for all three subsectors. The capital account strengthened
in 2012 as net capital outflows decreased. According to
preliminary estimates, the capital account deficit amounted
to US$40.9 billion or 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in 2012, compared to US$76.2 billion or 4 percent of
GDP in 2011. The labor market remains tight. The
unemployment rate declined across the country, and vacancy
and replacement rates increased. The number of poor people
in Russia reached a record low. In the first nine months of
2012, some 17.2 million of people were below the poverty
line, three million less than a year ago and the lowest
number in the last two decades. The weak external
environment, high inflation, flat oil prices and sluggish
domestic demand are set to postpone a pickup in growth
towards the second half of 2013. Nevertheless, modest growth
and lower inflation are projected to reduce poverty further. |
|---|