The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico : Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions

This documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertai...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	World Bank
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHS AGRICULTURAL PURPOSES AGRICULTURE AIR AIR QUALITY ALTERNATIVE ENERGY AMPHIBIANS AQUACULTURE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA BAROMETRIC PRESSURE BASINS BAY BEACH BEACH EROSION BEACH PROFILE BEACHES BENEFIT ANALYSIS BIODIVERSITY BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION BIOLOGICAL MONITORING BIOLOGY BIOSPHERE BRACKISH WATER CARBON CARBON CAPTURE CARBON EMISSION CARBON SINK CLASSIFICATION CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS CLIMATE EVENT CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE RISK CLIMATE RISKS CLIMATE THREATS CLIMATE TRENDS CLIMATIC CONDITIONS CO COAST COASTAL AREAS COASTAL CHANGE COASTAL DEVELOPMENT COASTAL ECOSYSTEM COASTAL EROSION COASTAL MANAGEMENT COASTAL MONITORING COASTAL PROTECTION COASTAL STATES COASTAL SYSTEMS COASTAL WETLAND COASTAL WETLANDS COASTAL ZONE COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT COASTAL ZONES COASTLINE COASTLINES COASTS COLORS CONSERVATION CONSTRUCTION CONTINENTS CORAL CORAL REEFS CORROSION CREATED WETLANDS CROPS CURRENTS DAMS DECISION MAKING DELTA DIKES DRAINAGE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS DUNE DUNES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS ECONOMIC VALUE ECONOMICS ECONOMISTS ECOSYSTEMS EMISSION REDUCTION ENDANGERED SPECIES ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ESTUARIES ESTUARY EUTROPHICATION EXTERNALITIES EXTREME EVENTS FIRE PREVENTION FISH FISH POPULATION FISHERIES FISHING FLOODING FLOODPLAINS FLOODS FOOD PRODUCTION FOREST FOREST FIRES FORESTS FRESHWATER GAS GAS PRODUCTION GEOLOGY GLACIERS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GREENHOUSE GROUNDWATER GULF HABITAT DEGRADATION HABITATS HOUSING HUMAN ACTIVITIES HURRICANES HYDROCARBON HYDROCARBONS HYDROGRAPHY ICE MASSES IMAGES INCUBATION INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION IPCC LAND AREA LAND MANAGEMENT LAND RECLAMATION LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE LAND USE PLANS LIQUID WASTE LITTORAL MANGROVE MANGROVE FORESTS MANGROVES MARINE TURTLES MEAN SEA LEVEL MIGRATORY BIRDS MITIGATION NATIONAL CLIMATE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL SCALE NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES NUTRIENT OCEAN CURRENT OCEAN CURRENTS OCEAN TEMPERATURE OCEANS OIL OIL INDUSTRY OIL RESERVES OPTION VALUE ORGANIC LOADS PEAK FLOWS PERMIT REGULATIONS PLANT SPECIES PLAYA POLICY DECISIONS POLICY INSTRUMENTS POLICY MAKERS POLLUTION POPULATION DYNAMICS POPULATION GROWTH PP PRECIPITATION PRECIPITATION INTENSITY PRECIPITATION PATTERNS PRESENT VALUE PRESERVATION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION PATTERNS PUBLIC HEALTH QUALITY STANDARDS RAIN RAINFALL RAINFALL EVENTS RAINFALL INTENSITY RAINWATER RESERVOIRS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RESTORATION RESTORATION PROGRAMS RETROFITTING RIVER RIVER DELTAS RUNOFF RURAL DEVELOPMENT SALINITY SALT MARSHES SALTWATER INTRUSION SATELLITE DATA SATELLITE IMAGES SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE SEA SEA LEVEL SEA LEVEL RISE SEA LEVEL RISES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEA TURTLES SEABED SEAGRASSES SEAS SEASHORE SEDIMENT SEDIMENT TRANSPORT SEDIMENTATION SEDIMENTS SHORE SHORELINE SPECIES SPECIES DIVERSITY STORM SURGE STORM SURGES STORMS SUBSTRATES SURFACE TEMPERATURE SURFACE WATERS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT SWAMPS TEMPERATURE RECORDS TIDE TIDES TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS TOPOGRAPHY TROPICAL CYCLONES TROPICAL DRY FOREST TROPICAL STORMS TSUNAMIS TURTLE UNDERGROUND WATER VEGETATION WASTE MANAGEMENT WATER LEVELS WATER QUALITY WATER RESOURCES WATER USE WAVES WEATHER CONDITIONS WETLAND WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS WETLAND RESTORATION WETLANDS WIND WINDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/01/17618011/campeche-mexico-case-climate-change-adaptation-uncertain-future-robust-decisions http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16591

Description
Summary:	This documented case of climate change adaptation in Campeche Mexico grapples with a problem that is fundamental to addressing climate change risks in areas of high vulnerability, which is how to reach consensus and take decisions under an uncertain future. The state of Campeche in Mexico, is used as an example. With its long coastline, Campeche is highly vulnerable to current and projected future climate threats. Two different approaches to decision making under uncertainty have been explored. (i) A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach was used to systematically analyze expected impacts, identify and agree on a menu of adaptation measures, and prioritize those measures, using a powerful combination of solid scientific knowledge and local expertise. (ii) The real options theory approach was applied to selected adaptation alternatives, and the benefits of waiting were compared with the costs of delaying decisions. In general, options that were modular and flexible were found to lead to more robust and prudent adaptation measures. The specific results obtained in this work are less important than the overall tenor and spirit of the messages from these exercises. Most importantly both exercises SEA and real options demonstrated that involved actors are ultimately consistent and cautious in their approach to climate risks. An important lesson to emerge from this work is that there is merit in adopting multiple approaches to tackle problems where uncertainty looms large. When the answers converge there is likely to be greater confidence in the outcomes. A second and perhaps more important lesson is the need to identify all costs including the options foregone by embarking on an irreversible course of action.

The Case of Climate Change Adaptation in Campeche, Mexico : Uncertain Future, Robust Decisions

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