Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding
Russia's economy lost steam in 2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of 2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report examines in its first part several aspects of the economic slowdown. It shows that the slowdown w...
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| Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
| Language: | English en_US |
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Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18362435/structural-challenges-growth-binding http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16691 |
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okr-10986-16691 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCOUNT DEFICIT ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSET PORTFOLIOS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BANK LENDING BANK POLICY BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND ISSUANCE BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND YIELDS BONDS BUDGETING BUFFER BUFFERS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CENTRAL BANK CHECKS COMMODITY PRICE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEXES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CORE INFLATION CORPORATE PROFIT TAX CORPORATE PROFITS CREDIBILITY CREDIT BOOM CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT EXPANSION CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT QUALITY CREDIT RISKS CURRENCY CURRENCY BASKET CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CUSTOMS UNION DEBT BURDEN DEBT PAYMENTS DEBT-SERVICING COSTS DECLINE IN INVESTMENT DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEPRESSED INVESTMENT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EXPANSION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EQUIPMENT EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE-RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL FUNDING FEDERAL BUDGET FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BANKS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPLICIT GOVERNMENT GUARANTEE IMPORT IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INFLATION RISK INFLATION TARGETING INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES ON LOANS INTEREST-RATE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATE LABOR MARKET LACK OF CONFIDENCE LOAN MARKET ACCESS MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PARTICIPANTS MARKET RATES MATURITIES MATURITY MONETARY POLICY MONEY-MARKET MORTGAGE MORTGAGE INTEREST MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCES NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL REVENUE OIL REVENUES OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OUTPUT GAP OUTTURN OUTTURNS PENSIONS PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO QUALITY PORTFOLIOS POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE CREDIT PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REAL WAGE GROWTH REMITTANCES REPO REPO RATE RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURNS SAVINGS RATE SOVEREIGN BOND SPECULATIVE ATTACK STATE BANKS STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS SUPPLY SIDE TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SURPLUS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED WAGES WEALTH WITHDRAWAL |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNT DEFICIT ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSET PORTFOLIOS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BANK LENDING BANK POLICY BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND ISSUANCE BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND YIELDS BONDS BUDGETING BUFFER BUFFERS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CENTRAL BANK CHECKS COMMODITY PRICE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEXES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CORE INFLATION CORPORATE PROFIT TAX CORPORATE PROFITS CREDIBILITY CREDIT BOOM CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT EXPANSION CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT QUALITY CREDIT RISKS CURRENCY CURRENCY BASKET CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CUSTOMS UNION DEBT BURDEN DEBT PAYMENTS DEBT-SERVICING COSTS DECLINE IN INVESTMENT DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEPRESSED INVESTMENT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EXPANSION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EQUIPMENT EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE-RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL FUNDING FEDERAL BUDGET FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BANKS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPLICIT GOVERNMENT GUARANTEE IMPORT IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INFLATION RISK INFLATION TARGETING INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES ON LOANS INTEREST-RATE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATE LABOR MARKET LACK OF CONFIDENCE LOAN MARKET ACCESS MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PARTICIPANTS MARKET RATES MATURITIES MATURITY MONETARY POLICY MONEY-MARKET MORTGAGE MORTGAGE INTEREST MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCES NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL REVENUE OIL REVENUES OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OUTPUT GAP OUTTURN OUTTURNS PENSIONS PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO QUALITY PORTFOLIOS POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE CREDIT PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REAL WAGE GROWTH REMITTANCES REPO REPO RATE RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURNS SAVINGS RATE SOVEREIGN BOND SPECULATIVE ATTACK STATE BANKS STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS SUPPLY SIDE TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SURPLUS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED WAGES WEALTH WITHDRAWAL World Bank Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation |
| relation |
Russian economic report;no. 30 |
| description |
Russia's economy lost steam in
2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of
2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report
examines in its first part several aspects of the economic
slowdown. It shows that the slowdown was largely the result
of weaker demand, which was due to a combination of external
and domestic factors, some of which are cyclical and others
structural. The structural challenges to the Russian economy
and its growth, such as non-competitive sectors and markets,
are another important factor to consider in the economic
slowdown. The special focus note in part three of this
report discusses the link between growth patterns in Russia,
firm survival and diversification in manufacturing and will
also highlight the impact of limited competition as a
structural constraint. This note looks at the role of growth
volatility as a possible explanation. It examines the role
of surges and slumps in manufacturing output and its
microeconomic implications in the dynamics of emergence and
sustainability of nascent economic activities. The dynamics
of the industrial output of the economy as whole, between
1993 and 2009, are the focus of this study. This note
examines the downturns that magnify and accelerate the
cleansing effects to the economy in forcing inefficient
firms to exit, as well as the upturns that set the
foundations of economic diversification by giving new
economic activities the opportunity to emerge. This note has
three main findings. First, Russian manufacturing output
growth is characterized by a higher volatility than other
comparator countries. Second, this volatility is mostly
driven by more numerous, deeper and longer slumps and is
mostly associated with aggregate slumps that have yearly
effects. Third, while the economic surges increase the
probability that productive firms remain in the market, the
same is not true of economic slumps-older firms, not
necessarily more productive ones, are more likely to survive
the downturn. Furthermore, in sectors in which competition
is less fierce, firms have a higher likelihood of weathering
a slump. |
| format |
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| title_short |
Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| title_full |
Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| title_fullStr |
Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding |
| title_sort |
russia economic report, no. 30, september 2013 : structural challenges to growth become binding |
| publisher |
Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18362435/structural-challenges-growth-binding http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16691 |
| _version_ |
1764433679321399296 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-166912021-04-23T14:03:30Z Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding World Bank ACCOUNT DEFICIT ADVANCED ECONOMIES AGRICULTURE ANNUAL GROWTH ASSET PORTFOLIOS AVERAGE OIL PRICE BALANCE OF PAYMENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BANK LENDING BANK POLICY BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BINDING CONSTRAINT BOND ISSUANCE BOND MARKET BOND MARKETS BOND YIELDS BONDS BUDGETING BUFFER BUFFERS BUSINESS CONFIDENCE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL GAINS CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CENTRAL BANK CHECKS COMMODITY PRICE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE INDEX CONFIDENCE INDEXES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMERS CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONTINGENT LIABILITIES CORE INFLATION CORPORATE PROFIT TAX CORPORATE PROFITS CREDIBILITY CREDIT BOOM CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDIT EXPANSION CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT QUALITY CREDIT RISKS CURRENCY CURRENCY BASKET CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CUSTOMS UNION DEBT BURDEN DEBT PAYMENTS DEBT-SERVICING COSTS DECLINE IN INVESTMENT DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DEPRESSED INVESTMENT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DIVIDENDS DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC CONCENTRATION ECONOMIC COOPERATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EXPANSION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN ECONOMIC STRUCTURE EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKETS EQUIPMENT EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE-RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPORTERS EXPORTS EXPOSURE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEBT PAYMENTS EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FACTORS EXTERNAL FUNDING FEDERAL BUDGET FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT FINANCIAL ASSETS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCIES FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE GDP GLOBAL DEMAND GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BANKS GOVERNMENT BUDGET GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH POTENTIAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES IMPLICIT GOVERNMENT GUARANTEE IMPORT IMPORT TARIFFS IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INFLATION RISK INFLATION TARGETING INTEREST PAYMENTS INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTEREST RATES ON LOANS INTEREST-RATE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INVENTORIES INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATE LABOR MARKET LACK OF CONFIDENCE LOAN MARKET ACCESS MARKET CONDITIONS MARKET PARTICIPANTS MARKET RATES MATURITIES MATURITY MONETARY POLICY MONEY-MARKET MORTGAGE MORTGAGE INTEREST MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCES NET EXPORTS NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL REVENUE OIL REVENUES OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OUTPUT GAP OUTTURN OUTTURNS PENSIONS PORTFOLIO PORTFOLIO QUALITY PORTFOLIOS POSITIVE EFFECTS POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE CREDIT PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE REAL GDP REAL INCOME REAL WAGE GROWTH REMITTANCES REPO REPO RATE RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURNS SAVINGS RATE SOVEREIGN BOND SPECULATIVE ATTACK STATE BANKS STOCK MARKETS STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS SUPPLY SIDE TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE PERFORMANCE TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SURPLUS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES UPWARD PRESSURE VALUE ADDED WAGES WEALTH WITHDRAWAL Russia's economy lost steam in 2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of 2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report examines in its first part several aspects of the economic slowdown. It shows that the slowdown was largely the result of weaker demand, which was due to a combination of external and domestic factors, some of which are cyclical and others structural. The structural challenges to the Russian economy and its growth, such as non-competitive sectors and markets, are another important factor to consider in the economic slowdown. The special focus note in part three of this report discusses the link between growth patterns in Russia, firm survival and diversification in manufacturing and will also highlight the impact of limited competition as a structural constraint. This note looks at the role of growth volatility as a possible explanation. It examines the role of surges and slumps in manufacturing output and its microeconomic implications in the dynamics of emergence and sustainability of nascent economic activities. The dynamics of the industrial output of the economy as whole, between 1993 and 2009, are the focus of this study. This note examines the downturns that magnify and accelerate the cleansing effects to the economy in forcing inefficient firms to exit, as well as the upturns that set the foundations of economic diversification by giving new economic activities the opportunity to emerge. This note has three main findings. First, Russian manufacturing output growth is characterized by a higher volatility than other comparator countries. Second, this volatility is mostly driven by more numerous, deeper and longer slumps and is mostly associated with aggregate slumps that have yearly effects. Third, while the economic surges increase the probability that productive firms remain in the market, the same is not true of economic slumps-older firms, not necessarily more productive ones, are more likely to survive the downturn. Furthermore, in sectors in which competition is less fierce, firms have a higher likelihood of weathering a slump. 2014-01-29T21:39:57Z 2014-01-29T21:39:57Z 2013-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18362435/structural-challenges-growth-binding http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16691 English en_US Russian economic report;no. 30 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Economic & Sector Work Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation |