Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria

Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic tra...

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Main Authors:	Onder, Harun, Pestieau, Pierre, Ley, Eduardo
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	aging fiscal sustainability growth economic policy
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/18926104/macroeconomic-fiscal-implications-population-aging-bulgaria http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17314

id	okr-10986-17314
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-173142021-04-23T14:03:37Z Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria Onder, Harun Pestieau, Pierre Ley, Eduardo aging fiscal sustainability growth economic policy Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift. 2014-03-18T20:45:40Z 2014-03-18T20:45:40Z 2014-02 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/18926104/macroeconomic-fiscal-implications-population-aging-bulgaria http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17314 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6774 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	aging fiscal sustainability growth economic policy
spellingShingle	aging fiscal sustainability growth economic policy Onder, Harun Pestieau, Pierre Ley, Eduardo Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Bulgaria
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6774
description	Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Onder, Harun Pestieau, Pierre Ley, Eduardo
author_facet	Onder, Harun Pestieau, Pierre Ley, Eduardo
author_sort	Onder, Harun
title	Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
title_short	Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
title_full	Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
title_fullStr	Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
title_full_unstemmed	Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria
title_sort	macroeconomic and fiscal implications of population aging in bulgaria
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/18926104/macroeconomic-fiscal-implications-population-aging-bulgaria http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17314
_version_	1764436861277700096

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria

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