Growth Empirics and Reality
This article questions current empirical practice in the study of growth. It argues that much of the modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions about regressors, residuals, and parameters that are implausible from the perspective of...
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | English en_US |
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Washington, DC: World Bank
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/05/17737425/growth-empirics-reality http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17447 |
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okr-10986-174472021-04-23T14:03:29Z Growth Empirics and Reality Brock, William A. Durlauf, Steven N. AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE AVERAGE PROCESS BAYES FACTOR BAYESIAN STATISTICS BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE CALCULATION CIVIL LIBERTIES COMPUTATION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COVARIANCE CROSS-COUNTRY DATA CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION DATA ANALYSIS DATA SET DATA SETS DECISION MAKING DECISION THEORY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC ISSUES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE EMPIRICAL GROWTH REGRESSIONS EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL METHODS EMPIRICAL RESEARCH EMPIRICAL WORK ENDOGENOUS GROWTH EQUATIONS ERROR TERM EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED UTILITY EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS FIXED EFFECTS FREE MARKETS FUNCTIONAL FORM GOODNESS OF FIT GROWTH ANALYSIS GROWTH CONTEXT GROWTH DATA GROWTH DETERMINANTS GROWTH DYNAMICS GROWTH EMPIRICS GROWTH EQUATION GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH PROCESS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSION GROWTH REGRESSIONS GROWTH RESIDUALS GROWTH THEORY HETEROSKEDASTICITY HUMAN CAPITAL HYPOTHESES INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INEQUALITY INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES LINEAR MODEL LINEAR MODELS LINEAR REGRESSION LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATRIX MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION MEASUREMENT ERROR MICROECONOMIC DATA SETS MILITARY EXPENDITURES MINIMIZATION MISSING OBSERVATIONS MODEL OF GROWTH NEW GROWTH THEORIES ORTHOGONALITY OUTLIERS PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY CHANGE POLICY INSTRUMENT POLICY INTERVENTION POLICY VARIABLES POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POOR COUNTRIES POOR DATA POOR MEASURES POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY TRAPS PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY THEORY PRODUCTION FUNCTION PROPERTY RIGHTS RANDOM VARIABLES REGRESSION ANALYSES RISK AVERSION SOCIAL CAPITAL STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STATISTICAL INFERENCE STATISTICAL METHODS STATISTICAL MODELS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE STATISTICAL THEORY STATISTICIANS THEOREMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICY UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY FUNCTIONS UTILITY THEORY UTILITY VALUE VALIDITY This article questions current empirical practice in the study of growth. It argues that much of the modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions about regressors, residuals, and parameters that are implausible from the perspective of both economic theory and the historical experiences of the countries under study. Many of these problems, it argues, are forms of violations of an exchangeability assumption that implicitly underlies standard growth exercises. The article shows that these implausible assumptions can be relaxed by allowing for uncertainty in model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants should be included in a model; and heterogeneity uncertainty, which relates to which observations in a data set constitute draw from the same statistical model. The article proposes ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally, using an explicit decision-theoretic framework, the authors describe how one can engage in policy-relevant empirical analysis. 2014-03-27T21:33:17Z 2014-03-27T21:33:17Z 2001-05 Journal Article http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/05/17737425/growth-empirics-reality World Bank Economic Review http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17447 English en_US CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Journal Article |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE AVERAGE PROCESS BAYES FACTOR BAYESIAN STATISTICS BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE CALCULATION CIVIL LIBERTIES COMPUTATION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COVARIANCE CROSS-COUNTRY DATA CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION DATA ANALYSIS DATA SET DATA SETS DECISION MAKING DECISION THEORY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC ISSUES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE EMPIRICAL GROWTH REGRESSIONS EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL METHODS EMPIRICAL RESEARCH EMPIRICAL WORK ENDOGENOUS GROWTH EQUATIONS ERROR TERM EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED UTILITY EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS FIXED EFFECTS FREE MARKETS FUNCTIONAL FORM GOODNESS OF FIT GROWTH ANALYSIS GROWTH CONTEXT GROWTH DATA GROWTH DETERMINANTS GROWTH DYNAMICS GROWTH EMPIRICS GROWTH EQUATION GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH PROCESS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSION GROWTH REGRESSIONS GROWTH RESIDUALS GROWTH THEORY HETEROSKEDASTICITY HUMAN CAPITAL HYPOTHESES INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INEQUALITY INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES LINEAR MODEL LINEAR MODELS LINEAR REGRESSION LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATRIX MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION MEASUREMENT ERROR MICROECONOMIC DATA SETS MILITARY EXPENDITURES MINIMIZATION MISSING OBSERVATIONS MODEL OF GROWTH NEW GROWTH THEORIES ORTHOGONALITY OUTLIERS PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY CHANGE POLICY INSTRUMENT POLICY INTERVENTION POLICY VARIABLES POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POOR COUNTRIES POOR DATA POOR MEASURES POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY TRAPS PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY THEORY PRODUCTION FUNCTION PROPERTY RIGHTS RANDOM VARIABLES REGRESSION ANALYSES RISK AVERSION SOCIAL CAPITAL STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STATISTICAL INFERENCE STATISTICAL METHODS STATISTICAL MODELS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE STATISTICAL THEORY STATISTICIANS THEOREMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICY UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY FUNCTIONS UTILITY THEORY UTILITY VALUE VALIDITY |
| spellingShingle |
AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE AVERAGE PROCESS BAYES FACTOR BAYESIAN STATISTICS BENCHMARK BOOTSTRAP BUSINESS CYCLE CALCULATION CIVIL LIBERTIES COMPUTATION COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY REGRESSIONS COVARIANCE CROSS-COUNTRY DATA CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES CROSS-COUNTRY REGRESSION DATA ANALYSIS DATA SET DATA SETS DECISION MAKING DECISION THEORY DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION DISTRIBUTIONAL DYNAMICS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRIC ISSUES ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC HISTORY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMICS ECONOMICS LITERATURE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE EMPIRICAL GROWTH REGRESSIONS EMPIRICAL LITERATURE EMPIRICAL METHODS EMPIRICAL RESEARCH EMPIRICAL WORK ENDOGENOUS GROWTH EQUATIONS ERROR TERM EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED UTILITY EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS FIXED EFFECTS FREE MARKETS FUNCTIONAL FORM GOODNESS OF FIT GROWTH ANALYSIS GROWTH CONTEXT GROWTH DATA GROWTH DETERMINANTS GROWTH DYNAMICS GROWTH EMPIRICS GROWTH EQUATION GROWTH MODEL GROWTH MODELS GROWTH PERFORMANCE GROWTH POLICIES GROWTH PROCESS GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES GROWTH REGRESSION GROWTH REGRESSIONS GROWTH RESIDUALS GROWTH THEORY HETEROSKEDASTICITY HUMAN CAPITAL HYPOTHESES INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES INEQUALITY INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES LINEAR MODEL LINEAR MODELS LINEAR REGRESSION LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMICS MATRIX MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION MEASUREMENT ERROR MICROECONOMIC DATA SETS MILITARY EXPENDITURES MINIMIZATION MISSING OBSERVATIONS MODEL OF GROWTH NEW GROWTH THEORIES ORTHOGONALITY OUTLIERS PER CAPITA GROWTH PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY ANALYSIS POLICY CHANGE POLICY INSTRUMENT POLICY INTERVENTION POLICY VARIABLES POLITICAL INSTABILITY POLITICAL RIGHTS POLITICAL STABILITY POLITICAL SYSTEMS POOR COUNTRIES POOR DATA POOR MEASURES POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY TRAPS PREDICTION PREDICTIONS PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY THEORY PRODUCTION FUNCTION PROPERTY RIGHTS RANDOM VARIABLES REGRESSION ANALYSES RISK AVERSION SOCIAL CAPITAL STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD ERRORS STATISTICAL ANALYSES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STATISTICAL INFERENCE STATISTICAL METHODS STATISTICAL MODELS STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE STATISTICAL THEORY STATISTICIANS THEOREMS TRADE OPENNESS TRADE POLICY UTILITY FUNCTION UTILITY FUNCTIONS UTILITY THEORY UTILITY VALUE VALIDITY Brock, William A. Durlauf, Steven N. Growth Empirics and Reality |
| description |
This article questions current empirical
practice in the study of growth. It argues that much of the
modern empirical growth literature is based on assumptions
about regressors, residuals, and parameters that are
implausible from the perspective of both economic theory and
the historical experiences of the countries under study.
Many of these problems, it argues, are forms of violations
of an exchangeability assumption that implicitly underlies
standard growth exercises. The article shows that these
implausible assumptions can be relaxed by allowing for
uncertainty in model specification. Model uncertainty
consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to
which growth determinants should be included in a model; and
heterogeneity uncertainty, which relates to which
observations in a data set constitute draw from the same
statistical model. The article proposes ways to account for
both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally, using an
explicit decision-theoretic framework, the authors describe
how one can engage in policy-relevant empirical analysis. |
| format |
Journal Article |
| author |
Brock, William A. Durlauf, Steven N. |
| author_facet |
Brock, William A. Durlauf, Steven N. |
| author_sort |
Brock, William A. |
| title |
Growth Empirics and Reality |
| title_short |
Growth Empirics and Reality |
| title_full |
Growth Empirics and Reality |
| title_fullStr |
Growth Empirics and Reality |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Growth Empirics and Reality |
| title_sort |
growth empirics and reality |
| publisher |
Washington, DC: World Bank |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/05/17737425/growth-empirics-reality http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17447 |
| _version_ |
1764433175109435392 |