Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean
A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to dou...
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| Format: | Energy Study |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547 |
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okr-10986-17547 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
ADVERSE EFFECTS AMOUNT OF OIL APPROACH ATMOSPHERE AVAILABILITY BALANCE BARREL BARREL OIL BARREL PRICE BARRELS PER DAY BIOMASS BIOMASS GENERATION CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CO2 CO2 EMISSIONS COAL COAL PRICES COAL PRICING COAL RESOURCES COAL UNITS CONVENTIONAL GAS COST OF COAL COST OF ELECTRICITY COST OF GAS CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL PRICES CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CRUDE PRICE DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR OIL DEMAND GROWTH DIESEL DRILLING ECOSYSTEMS ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER GENERATORS ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ELECTRICITY COSTS ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX ELECTRICITY PRICES ELECTRICITY PRICING ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ELECTRICITY SECTOR ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ELECTRICITY TARIFF ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY CONSERVATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKET ENERGY MIX ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY PLANNERS ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY REQUIREMENTS ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS EXCESS SUPPLY EXTRACTION FEEDSTOCK FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FOSSIL-FUEL FUEL FUEL COST FUEL COSTS FUEL DEMAND FUEL EXPORTS FUEL OIL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUEL USE FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS GAS MARKETS GAS PRICE GAS PRICES GAS PRICING GAS PRODUCER GAS PRODUCTION GAS SUPPLY GAS TECHNOLOGY GAS TURBINE GAS WELLHEAD GAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIES GASOLINE GASOLINE PRODUCTION GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY GEOTHERMAL GENERATION GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND HEALTH RISKS HEAVY CRUDE HEAVY FUEL OIL HEAVY RELIANCE HIGH OIL PRICES HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HIGHER OIL PRICES HYDROCARBON FUELS HYDROCARBONS HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER GENERATION INCOME INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY KILOWATT HOUR LIGHT CRUDE LIQUID FUEL LIQUIDS PRODUCTION LNG METHANE MILLION BARRELS MILLION BARRELS PER DAY MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS MARKET NATURAL GAS PRICE NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL-GAS NET OIL OIL OIL AND GAS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL EQUIVALENT OIL EXPORTER OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTING OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORT OIL IMPORT BILL OIL IMPORTERS OIL IMPORTING OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL IMPORTING NATIONS OIL MARKET OIL POWER OIL PRICE OIL PRICE CHANGES OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OIL PRICE SCENARIO OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTS OIL REFINERY OIL REVENUES OIL SHOCK OIL SHOCKS OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OIL TANKER OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES OPEC OPEC COUNTRIES PEAK LOAD PER CAPITA ENERGY PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES PIPELINES POTENT GREENHOUSE GAS POWER POWER GENERATION POWER PRODUCER POWER PRODUCERS POWER SECTOR PRICE COMPARISONS PRICE COMPETITIVENESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE OF COAL PRICE OF GAS PRICE OF NATURAL GAS PRICE OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY PRICES OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE PRIVATE SECTOR PRODUCTION COSTS REFINED PRODUCTS REFINERIES REFINERY CAPACITY REGRESSION ANALYSIS RENEWABLE ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES RENEWABLE SOURCES RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES RESIDUAL FUEL RESIDUAL FUEL OIL SPOT PRICE SULFUR SULFUR CONTENT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY THERMAL UNIT TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION UTILITIES WELLHEAD PRICE WELLHEAD PRICES WIND WIND ENERGY WIND ENERGY GENERATION WORLD OIL WORLD OIL PRODUCTION |
| spellingShingle |
ADVERSE EFFECTS AMOUNT OF OIL APPROACH ATMOSPHERE AVAILABILITY BALANCE BARREL BARREL OIL BARREL PRICE BARRELS PER DAY BIOMASS BIOMASS GENERATION CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CO2 CO2 EMISSIONS COAL COAL PRICES COAL PRICING COAL RESOURCES COAL UNITS CONVENTIONAL GAS COST OF COAL COST OF ELECTRICITY COST OF GAS CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL PRICES CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CRUDE PRICE DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR OIL DEMAND GROWTH DIESEL DRILLING ECOSYSTEMS ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER GENERATORS ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ELECTRICITY COSTS ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX ELECTRICITY PRICES ELECTRICITY PRICING ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ELECTRICITY SECTOR ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ELECTRICITY TARIFF ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY CONSERVATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKET ENERGY MIX ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY PLANNERS ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY REQUIREMENTS ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS EXCESS SUPPLY EXTRACTION FEEDSTOCK FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FOSSIL-FUEL FUEL FUEL COST FUEL COSTS FUEL DEMAND FUEL EXPORTS FUEL OIL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUEL USE FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS GAS MARKETS GAS PRICE GAS PRICES GAS PRICING GAS PRODUCER GAS PRODUCTION GAS SUPPLY GAS TECHNOLOGY GAS TURBINE GAS WELLHEAD GAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIES GASOLINE GASOLINE PRODUCTION GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY GEOTHERMAL GENERATION GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND HEALTH RISKS HEAVY CRUDE HEAVY FUEL OIL HEAVY RELIANCE HIGH OIL PRICES HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HIGHER OIL PRICES HYDROCARBON FUELS HYDROCARBONS HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER GENERATION INCOME INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY KILOWATT HOUR LIGHT CRUDE LIQUID FUEL LIQUIDS PRODUCTION LNG METHANE MILLION BARRELS MILLION BARRELS PER DAY MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS MARKET NATURAL GAS PRICE NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL-GAS NET OIL OIL OIL AND GAS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL EQUIVALENT OIL EXPORTER OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTING OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORT OIL IMPORT BILL OIL IMPORTERS OIL IMPORTING OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL IMPORTING NATIONS OIL MARKET OIL POWER OIL PRICE OIL PRICE CHANGES OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OIL PRICE SCENARIO OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTS OIL REFINERY OIL REVENUES OIL SHOCK OIL SHOCKS OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OIL TANKER OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES OPEC OPEC COUNTRIES PEAK LOAD PER CAPITA ENERGY PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES PIPELINES POTENT GREENHOUSE GAS POWER POWER GENERATION POWER PRODUCER POWER PRODUCERS POWER SECTOR PRICE COMPARISONS PRICE COMPETITIVENESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE OF COAL PRICE OF GAS PRICE OF NATURAL GAS PRICE OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY PRICES OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE PRIVATE SECTOR PRODUCTION COSTS REFINED PRODUCTS REFINERIES REFINERY CAPACITY REGRESSION ANALYSIS RENEWABLE ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES RENEWABLE SOURCES RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES RESIDUAL FUEL RESIDUAL FUEL OIL SPOT PRICE SULFUR SULFUR CONTENT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY THERMAL UNIT TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION UTILITIES WELLHEAD PRICE WELLHEAD PRICES WIND WIND ENERGY WIND ENERGY GENERATION WORLD OIL WORLD OIL PRODUCTION Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel San Vicente Portes, Luis García, Luis Enrique Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| geographic_facet |
Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean Latin America |
| description |
A scenario with higher oil prices has
important implications for diverting from oil-based
technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and
nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin
America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from
2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate
mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices
of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability
of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to
evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of
generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so
that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer
future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as
those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price
is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion
given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a
barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as
considerably high yet plausible given historical and current
price levels, available forecasts, and other potential price
drivers. The study's specific objectives are to: (i)
analyze the economic effects of higher oil prices on LAC
countries, particularly oil importers; (ii) assess the
short-term impact on electricity generation costs based on
the composition of generation matrices across countries of
the region; and (iii) quantify the long term impact on
electricity costs if countries modify the composition of
their generation matrices in response to higher oil prices.
This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives
introduction. Chapter two presents the framework for
analyzing the impact of higher oil prices, including an
overview of recent price trends, major drivers of oil and
gas prices, and a medium-term scenario under which higher
prices might occur. Chapter three analyzes the impact of
higher oil prices on LAC countries. Chapter four focuses on
the short-term impact of higher oil prices on the
electricity sector and the potential impact on the cost of
generation, depending on the planning decisions made for
future electricity generation. Finally, chapter five offers
policy makers recommendations on the relevance of
considering the potential impact of higher oil prices on
countries' fiscal and trade balances, the cost of
electricity to final consumers, and the impact that such
cost may have on the competitiveness of their productive sector. |
| format |
Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study |
| author |
Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel San Vicente Portes, Luis García, Luis Enrique |
| author_facet |
Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel San Vicente Portes, Luis García, Luis Enrique |
| author_sort |
Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel |
| title |
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_short |
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_full |
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_fullStr |
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean |
| title_sort |
planning for higher oil prices : power sector impact in latin america and the caribbean |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547 |
| _version_ |
1764438061128613888 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-175472021-04-23T14:03:39Z Planning for Higher Oil Prices : Power Sector Impact in Latin America and the Caribbean Yépez-García, Rigoberto Ariel San Vicente Portes, Luis García, Luis Enrique ADVERSE EFFECTS AMOUNT OF OIL APPROACH ATMOSPHERE AVAILABILITY BALANCE BARREL BARREL OIL BARREL PRICE BARRELS PER DAY BIOMASS BIOMASS GENERATION CARBON CARBON DIOXIDE CO2 CO2 EMISSIONS COAL COAL PRICES COAL PRICING COAL RESOURCES COAL UNITS CONVENTIONAL GAS COST OF COAL COST OF ELECTRICITY COST OF GAS CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL PRICES CRUDE OIL SUPPLY CRUDE PRICE DEMAND FOR ENERGY DEMAND FOR OIL DEMAND GROWTH DIESEL DRILLING ECOSYSTEMS ELECTRIC POWER ELECTRIC POWER GENERATORS ELECTRICITY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION ELECTRICITY COSTS ELECTRICITY DEMAND ELECTRICITY GENERATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX ELECTRICITY PRICES ELECTRICITY PRICING ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION ELECTRICITY SECTOR ELECTRICITY SUPPLY ELECTRICITY TARIFF ENERGY BALANCE ENERGY CONSERVATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENERGY COSTS ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ENERGY INTENSITY ENERGY MARKET ENERGY MIX ENERGY NEEDS ENERGY PLANNERS ENERGY POLICY ENERGY PRICES ENERGY REQUIREMENTS ENERGY SOURCES ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ENERGY TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ENERGY USE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS EXCESS SUPPLY EXTRACTION FEEDSTOCK FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOSSIL FOSSIL FUEL FOSSIL FUELS FOSSIL-FUEL FUEL FUEL COST FUEL COSTS FUEL DEMAND FUEL EXPORTS FUEL OIL FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICES FUEL SUBSTITUTION FUEL USE FUTURE ENERGY NEEDS GAS MARKETS GAS PRICE GAS PRICES GAS PRICING GAS PRODUCER GAS PRODUCTION GAS SUPPLY GAS TECHNOLOGY GAS TURBINE GAS WELLHEAD GAS-PRODUCING COUNTRIES GASOLINE GASOLINE PRODUCTION GENERATION GENERATION CAPACITY GEOTHERMAL GENERATION GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND HEALTH RISKS HEAVY CRUDE HEAVY FUEL OIL HEAVY RELIANCE HIGH OIL PRICES HIGHER ENERGY CONSUMPTION HIGHER ENERGY PRICES HIGHER OIL PRICES HYDROCARBON FUELS HYDROCARBONS HYDROPOWER HYDROPOWER GENERATION INCOME INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INVESTMENTS IN ENERGY KILOWATT HOUR LIGHT CRUDE LIQUID FUEL LIQUIDS PRODUCTION LNG METHANE MILLION BARRELS MILLION BARRELS PER DAY MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS MARKET NATURAL GAS PRICE NATURAL GAS PRICES NATURAL RESOURCES NATURAL-GAS NET OIL OIL OIL AND GAS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL CRISIS OIL DEMAND OIL EQUIVALENT OIL EXPORTER OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTING OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES OIL EXPORTS OIL IMPORT OIL IMPORT BILL OIL IMPORTERS OIL IMPORTING OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL IMPORTING NATIONS OIL MARKET OIL POWER OIL PRICE OIL PRICE CHANGES OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS OIL PRICE SCENARIO OIL PRICES OIL PRODUCTS OIL REFINERY OIL REVENUES OIL SHOCK OIL SHOCKS OIL SUPPLIES OIL SUPPLY OIL TANKER OIL-IMPORTING COUNTRIES OIL-PRODUCING COUNTRIES OPEC OPEC COUNTRIES PEAK LOAD PER CAPITA ENERGY PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTION PETROLEUM PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES PIPELINES POTENT GREENHOUSE GAS POWER POWER GENERATION POWER PRODUCER POWER PRODUCERS POWER SECTOR PRICE COMPARISONS PRICE COMPETITIVENESS PRICE ELASTICITY PRICE OF COAL PRICE OF GAS PRICE OF NATURAL GAS PRICE OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY PRICES OF ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE PRIVATE SECTOR PRODUCTION COSTS REFINED PRODUCTS REFINERIES REFINERY CAPACITY REGRESSION ANALYSIS RENEWABLE ENERGY RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES RENEWABLE SOURCES RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES RESIDUAL FUEL RESIDUAL FUEL OIL SPOT PRICE SULFUR SULFUR CONTENT SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE ENERGY THERMAL UNIT TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TOTAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION UTILITIES WELLHEAD PRICE WELLHEAD PRICES WIND WIND ENERGY WIND ENERGY GENERATION WORLD OIL WORLD OIL PRODUCTION A scenario with higher oil prices has important implications for diverting from oil-based technologies to renewables, as well as gas, coal, and nuclear alternatives. By 2030, energy demand in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is expected to double from 2008 levels. A key issue is deciding on the most appropriate mix of fuels for power generation, given the various prices of energy sources and technologies, as well as availability of renewable energy. The study's broad aim is to evaluate the impact of higher oil prices on the cost of generating electricity in countries of the LAC region so that better-informed energy policy planners can buffer future adverse effects. The study defines high oil prices as those above United States (U.S.) $100 per barrel. This price is considered a reasonable starting point for discussion given the recent range in oil prices, which averaged $95 a barrel in 2011. A price of $150 per barrel is defined as considerably high yet plausible given historical and current price levels, available forecasts, and other potential price drivers. The study's specific objectives are to: (i) analyze the economic effects of higher oil prices on LAC countries, particularly oil importers; (ii) assess the short-term impact on electricity generation costs based on the composition of generation matrices across countries of the region; and (iii) quantify the long term impact on electricity costs if countries modify the composition of their generation matrices in response to higher oil prices. This report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two presents the framework for analyzing the impact of higher oil prices, including an overview of recent price trends, major drivers of oil and gas prices, and a medium-term scenario under which higher prices might occur. Chapter three analyzes the impact of higher oil prices on LAC countries. Chapter four focuses on the short-term impact of higher oil prices on the electricity sector and the potential impact on the cost of generation, depending on the planning decisions made for future electricity generation. Finally, chapter five offers policy makers recommendations on the relevance of considering the potential impact of higher oil prices on countries' fiscal and trade balances, the cost of electricity to final consumers, and the impact that such cost may have on the competitiveness of their productive sector. 2014-04-01T18:09:11Z 2014-04-01T18:09:11Z 2013-12 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/19128477/planning-higher-oil-prices-power-sector-impact-latin-america-caribbean http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17547 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Energy Study Latin America & Caribbean Caribbean Latin America |