Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico

The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate fro...

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Main Authors:	Fuchs, Alan, Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND ALTITUDE BASIC CASH TRANSFERS CODES DAMAGES DISASTER AID DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RELIEF DROUGHT DROUGHTS EMERGENCY RELIEF FARMER FARMERS FLOODING HUMIDITY HURRICANE INCOME INCOME FLUCTUATIONS INDEMNITIES INDEMNITY INSURANCE INSURANCE PREMIUM INSURER MEDIA MONSOON NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS PERSONAL COMPUTERS POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL SUPPORT POOR POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY REDUCTION RAIN RAINFALL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT RECONSTRUCTION REINSURERS RELIEF RELIEF EFFORTS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL LIVELIHOODS SOCIAL PROGRAMS TARGETING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19354983/voter-response-natural-disaster-aid-quasi-experimental-evidence-drought-relief-payments-mexico http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17723

id	okr-10986-17723
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-177232021-04-23T14:03:40Z Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico Fuchs, Alan Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND ALTITUDE BASIC CASH TRANSFERS CODES DAMAGES DISASTER AID DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RELIEF DROUGHT DROUGHTS EMERGENCY RELIEF FARMER FARMERS FLOODING HUMIDITY HURRICANE INCOME INCOME FLUCTUATIONS INDEMNITIES INDEMNITY INSURANCE INSURANCE PREMIUM INSURER MEDIA MONSOON NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS PERSONAL COMPUTERS POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL SUPPORT POOR POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY REDUCTION RAIN RAINFALL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT RECONSTRUCTION REINSURERS RELIEF RELIEF EFFORTS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL LIVELIHOODS SOCIAL PROGRAMS TARGETING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending. 2014-04-10T19:41:25Z 2014-04-10T19:41:25Z 2014-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19354983/voter-response-natural-disaster-aid-quasi-experimental-evidence-drought-relief-payments-mexico http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17723 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6836 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Latin America & Caribbean Mexico
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND ALTITUDE BASIC CASH TRANSFERS CODES DAMAGES DISASTER AID DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RELIEF DROUGHT DROUGHTS EMERGENCY RELIEF FARMER FARMERS FLOODING HUMIDITY HURRICANE INCOME INCOME FLUCTUATIONS INDEMNITIES INDEMNITY INSURANCE INSURANCE PREMIUM INSURER MEDIA MONSOON NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS PERSONAL COMPUTERS POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL SUPPORT POOR POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY REDUCTION RAIN RAINFALL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT RECONSTRUCTION REINSURERS RELIEF RELIEF EFFORTS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL LIVELIHOODS SOCIAL PROGRAMS TARGETING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS
spellingShingle	AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND ALTITUDE BASIC CASH TRANSFERS CODES DAMAGES DISASTER AID DISASTER PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RELIEF DROUGHT DROUGHTS EMERGENCY RELIEF FARMER FARMERS FLOODING HUMIDITY HURRICANE INCOME INCOME FLUCTUATIONS INDEMNITIES INDEMNITY INSURANCE INSURANCE PREMIUM INSURER MEDIA MONSOON NATURAL CATASTROPHES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS PERSONAL COMPUTERS POLITICAL ECONOMY POLITICAL SUPPORT POOR POOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY REDUCTION RAIN RAINFALL RAINFALL MEASUREMENT RECONSTRUCTION REINSURERS RELIEF RELIEF EFFORTS RESPONSE TO DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT RURAL RURAL DEVELOPMENT RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL LIVELIHOODS SOCIAL PROGRAMS TARGETING TEMPERATURE WEATHER WEATHER STATIONS Fuchs, Alan Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
geographic_facet	Latin America & Caribbean Mexico
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6836
description	The paper estimates the effects on presidential election returns in Mexico of a government climatic contingency transfer that is allocated through rainfall-indexed insurance. The analysis uses the discontinuity in payments that slightly deviate from a pre-established threshold, based on rainfall accumulation measured at local weather stations. It turns out that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering drought relief compensation. The paper finds that receiving indemnity payments leads to significantly greater average electoral support for the incumbent party of approximately 7.6 percentage points. The analysis suggests that the incumbent party is rewarded by disaster aid recipients and punished by non-recipients. The paper contributes to the literature on retrospective voting by providing evidence that voters evaluate government actions and respond to disaster spending.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Fuchs, Alan Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes
author_facet	Fuchs, Alan Rodriguez-Chamussy, Lourdes
author_sort	Fuchs, Alan
title	Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
title_short	Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
title_full	Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
title_fullStr	Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
title_full_unstemmed	Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico
title_sort	voter response to natural disaster aid : quasi-experimental evidence from drought relief payments in mexico
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19354983/voter-response-natural-disaster-aid-quasi-experimental-evidence-drought-relief-payments-mexico http://hdl.handle.net/10986/17723
_version_	1764438276331012096

Voter Response to Natural Disaster Aid : Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Drought Relief Payments in Mexico

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