Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks
Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Economic Updates and Modeling |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19401048/tajikistan-strong-growth-rising-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18659 |
| id |
okr-10986-18659 |
|---|---|
| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AMORTIZATION ARREARS AUDITS AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BORROWER BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGETING BUFFERS CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS COAL COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER BASKET CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CONSUMPTION GROWTH CPI CREDIT DECISIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT INFORMATION BUREAU CREDIT RISK CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CUSTOMS DUTIES CUSTOMS DUTY DEFAULT RATES DEMOGRAPHICS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENTAL EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT COMMODITIES EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL INFORMATION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FORGIVENESS FUTURES FUTURES MARKETS GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY IMPORT IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME LEVEL INFLATION INFLATION DYNAMICS INFORMATION ON BORROWERS INFORMATION SYSTEM INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT BANKS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIQUIDITY LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PROCESSING LOAN RATE LOCAL CURRENCY LOCAL MARKET MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MAJOR CURRENCIES MARKET CONCENTRATION MARKET DEVELOPMENTS MARKET REFORMS MARKET REQUIREMENTS MATURITY MICROFINANCE MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NOMINAL DEPRECIATION NOMINAL DEVALUATION NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL PENSIONS POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRODUCERS PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REGULATORY REFORMS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURNS RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR REFORM SECTOR REFORMS SHORTFALL SLOWDOWN SLOWDOWNS SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS STABLE EXCHANGE RATE STABLE GROWTH STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS TAX TAX CODE TOTAL DEPOSITS TOTAL EXPORT TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORT TOTAL IMPORTS TRADE ACCOUNT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSMISSION MECHANISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURIES TREASURY UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS WAGES WAREHOUSE WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AMORTIZATION ARREARS AUDITS AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BORROWER BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGETING BUFFERS CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS COAL COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER BASKET CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CONSUMPTION GROWTH CPI CREDIT DECISIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT INFORMATION BUREAU CREDIT RISK CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CUSTOMS DUTIES CUSTOMS DUTY DEFAULT RATES DEMOGRAPHICS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENTAL EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT COMMODITIES EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL INFORMATION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FORGIVENESS FUTURES FUTURES MARKETS GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY IMPORT IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME LEVEL INFLATION INFLATION DYNAMICS INFORMATION ON BORROWERS INFORMATION SYSTEM INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT BANKS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIQUIDITY LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PROCESSING LOAN RATE LOCAL CURRENCY LOCAL MARKET MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MAJOR CURRENCIES MARKET CONCENTRATION MARKET DEVELOPMENTS MARKET REFORMS MARKET REQUIREMENTS MATURITY MICROFINANCE MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NOMINAL DEPRECIATION NOMINAL DEVALUATION NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL PENSIONS POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRODUCERS PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REGULATORY REFORMS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURNS RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR REFORM SECTOR REFORMS SHORTFALL SLOWDOWN SLOWDOWNS SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS STABLE EXCHANGE RATE STABLE GROWTH STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS TAX TAX CODE TOTAL DEPOSITS TOTAL EXPORT TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORT TOTAL IMPORTS TRADE ACCOUNT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSMISSION MECHANISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURIES TREASURY UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS WAGES WAREHOUSE WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE World Bank Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Tajikistan |
| relation |
Tajikistan economic report;no. 5 |
| description |
Tajikistan's economy grew at
higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the
back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances
fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker
external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton
adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the
current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record
low because of the limited increase in food prices and
stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of
higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax
revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be
different than official statistics suggests because of soft
budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued
directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The
economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and
debt position remains weak because of the country's
remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high
dependence on concessional financing, and large
infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing
foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in
excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the
country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial
sector accountability and the poor business climate hold
back development in the financial sector and in the
government debt market. The government is aiming for at
least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a
reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and
further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these
objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed
at improving the institutional environment for
private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth
and poverty reduction will depend on its success in
overcoming the binding constraints to diversified
development and in reducing the costs and increasing the
profitability of potential private investments. |
| format |
Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| title_short |
Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| title_full |
Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| title_fullStr |
Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks |
| title_sort |
tajikistan : strong growth, rising risks |
| publisher |
Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19401048/tajikistan-strong-growth-rising-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18659 |
| _version_ |
1764441770206167040 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-186592021-04-23T14:03:47Z Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks World Bank ACCOUNTING ACCOUNTING STANDARDS AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AMORTIZATION ARREARS AUDITS AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE BANKING SECTOR BANKING SYSTEM BORROWER BUDGET DEFICIT BUDGETING BUFFERS CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL GOODS COAL COMPETITIVENESS CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER BASKET CONSUMER GOODS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION CONSUMPTION GROWTH CPI CREDIT DECISIONS CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT INFORMATION CREDIT INFORMATION BUREAU CREDIT RISK CREDITOR CREDITORS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT CUSTOMS DUTIES CUSTOMS DUTY DEFAULT RATES DEMOGRAPHICS DEPOSIT DEPOSITS DEVALUATION DEVELOPMENT BANK DOMESTIC DEMAND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH ENVIRONMENTAL EQUIPMENT EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT COMMODITIES EXPORT GOODS EXPORT GROWTH EXPORT MARKET EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL SHOCKS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL INFORMATION FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL MARKETS FISCAL BALANCE FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED INVESTMENT FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES FOREIGN DEBT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FOREIGN RESERVES FORESTRY FORGIVENESS FUTURES FUTURES MARKETS GLOBAL MARKET GLOBAL MARKETS GOVERNANCE ISSUES GOVERNMENT DEBT GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE GOVERNMENT REVENUES GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMOVABLE PROPERTY IMPORT IMPORT GROWTH IMPORTS INCOME LEVEL INFLATION INFLATION DYNAMICS INFORMATION ON BORROWERS INFORMATION SYSTEM INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL PRICES INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORY INVESTING INVESTMENT BANKS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES INVESTMENT PROJECTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LEGAL FRAMEWORK LENDERS LIQUIDITY LOAN AGREEMENTS LOAN PROCESSING LOAN RATE LOCAL CURRENCY LOCAL MARKET MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT MAJOR CURRENCIES MARKET CONCENTRATION MARKET DEVELOPMENTS MARKET REFORMS MARKET REQUIREMENTS MATURITY MICROFINANCE MONETARY POLICY NATIONAL BANK NOMINAL DEPRECIATION NOMINAL DEVALUATION NON-PERFORMING LOAN NON-PERFORMING LOANS NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL PENSIONS POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CONSUMPTION PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRODUCERS PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC EXPENDITURE PUBLIC EXPENDITURES PUBLIC FINANCE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SPENDING RATE OF GROWTH REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH REAL WAGES REGISTRATION SYSTEM REGULATORY REFORMS REMITTANCE REMITTANCES RESERVES RESOURCE MANAGEMENT RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURNS RISK MANAGEMENT SECTOR REFORM SECTOR REFORMS SHORTFALL SLOWDOWN SLOWDOWNS SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS STABLE EXCHANGE RATE STABLE GROWTH STOCKS STRUCTURAL REFORMS SUPPLY SIDE SURPLUS TAX TAX CODE TOTAL DEPOSITS TOTAL EXPORT TOTAL EXPORTS TOTAL IMPORT TOTAL IMPORTS TRADE ACCOUNT TRADE BALANCE TRADE BARRIERS TRADE DEFICIT TRADE FACILITATION TRADING TRADING PARTNERS TRANSMISSION MECHANISM TRANSPARENCY TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURIES TREASURY UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS WAGES WAREHOUSE WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE Tajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial sector accountability and the poor business climate hold back development in the financial sector and in the government debt market. The government is aiming for at least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed at improving the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth and poverty reduction will depend on its success in overcoming the binding constraints to diversified development and in reducing the costs and increasing the profitability of potential private investments. 2014-06-12T21:21:21Z 2014-06-12T21:21:21Z 2014-04 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19401048/tajikistan-strong-growth-rising-risks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18659 English en_US Tajikistan economic report;no. 5 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Europe and Central Asia Tajikistan |