Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the...

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Main Authors:	Cojocaru, Alexandru, Olivieri, Sergio
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	AGGREGATE INEQUALITY AGRICULTURAL INCOMES AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL % CHANGE ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE ANNUAL CALORIE INTAKE CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION LEVELS CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING DECLINING POVERTY DEMAND SIDE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES DIVIDENDS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTOR ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIC SITUATION ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT STATUS FARMERS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOOD BASKET FOOD REQUIREMENTS FORECASTS GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH ELASTICITY GROWTH RATES HBS HBS DATA HBS INCOME HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IMPACT ANALYSIS INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME COMPONENTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROWTH INCOME MEAN INCOME SOURCE INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION RATES LABOR FORCE LABOR INCOME LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MEAN GROWTH NATIONAL POVERTY NET INCOME NEW POOR PENSIONS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY CHANGES POVERTY DYNAMICS POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PROGRAMS PUBLIC TRANSFERS RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RURAL RURAL AREAS SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SIMULATIONS SKILL LEVEL SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL TRANSFERS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19574666/updating-poverty-estimates-serbia-absence-micro-data-microsimulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797

id	okr-10986-18797
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-187972021-04-23T14:03:49Z Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach Cojocaru, Alexandru Olivieri, Sergio AGGREGATE INEQUALITY AGRICULTURAL INCOMES AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL % CHANGE ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE ANNUAL CALORIE INTAKE CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION LEVELS CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING DECLINING POVERTY DEMAND SIDE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES DIVIDENDS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTOR ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIC SITUATION ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT STATUS FARMERS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOOD BASKET FOOD REQUIREMENTS FORECASTS GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH ELASTICITY GROWTH RATES HBS HBS DATA HBS INCOME HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IMPACT ANALYSIS INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME COMPONENTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROWTH INCOME MEAN INCOME SOURCE INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION RATES LABOR FORCE LABOR INCOME LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MEAN GROWTH NATIONAL POVERTY NET INCOME NEW POOR PENSIONS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY CHANGES POVERTY DYNAMICS POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PROGRAMS PUBLIC TRANSFERS RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RURAL RURAL AREAS SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SIMULATIONS SKILL LEVEL SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL TRANSFERS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for. 2014-06-26T21:29:03Z 2014-06-26T21:29:03Z 2014-05 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19574666/updating-poverty-estimates-serbia-absence-micro-data-microsimulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6889 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Serbia
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	AGGREGATE INEQUALITY AGRICULTURAL INCOMES AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL % CHANGE ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE ANNUAL CALORIE INTAKE CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION LEVELS CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING DECLINING POVERTY DEMAND SIDE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES DIVIDENDS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTOR ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIC SITUATION ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT STATUS FARMERS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOOD BASKET FOOD REQUIREMENTS FORECASTS GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH ELASTICITY GROWTH RATES HBS HBS DATA HBS INCOME HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IMPACT ANALYSIS INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME COMPONENTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROWTH INCOME MEAN INCOME SOURCE INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION RATES LABOR FORCE LABOR INCOME LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MEAN GROWTH NATIONAL POVERTY NET INCOME NEW POOR PENSIONS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY CHANGES POVERTY DYNAMICS POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PROGRAMS PUBLIC TRANSFERS RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RURAL RURAL AREAS SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SIMULATIONS SKILL LEVEL SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL TRANSFERS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION
spellingShingle	AGGREGATE INEQUALITY AGRICULTURAL INCOMES AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURE ANNUAL % CHANGE ANNUAL GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATE AVERAGE ANNUAL CALORIE INTAKE CONSUMPTION GROWTH CONSUMPTION LEVELS CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING DECLINING POVERTY DEMAND SIDE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES DIVIDENDS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICIES ECONOMIC SECTOR ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIC SITUATION ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT STATUS FARMERS FINANCIAL CRISIS FOOD BASKET FOOD REQUIREMENTS FORECASTS GDP GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH ELASTICITY GROWTH RATES HBS HBS DATA HBS INCOME HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD BUDGET HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD INCOMES HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IMPACT ANALYSIS INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME COMPONENTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS INCOME DYNAMICS INCOME GROWTH INCOME MEAN INCOME SOURCE INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT INDIVIDUAL INCOMES INEQUALITY INEQUALITY MEASURES INFLATION RATES LABOR FORCE LABOR INCOME LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MEAN GROWTH NATIONAL POVERTY NET INCOME NEW POOR PENSIONS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY REFORMS POLICY RESEARCH POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POPULATION GROWTH POSITIVE GROWTH POVERTY CHANGES POVERTY DYNAMICS POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PROGRAMS PUBLIC TRANSFERS RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RURAL RURAL AREAS SAVINGS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SIMULATIONS SKILL LEVEL SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL TRANSFERS UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UTILITY MAXIMIZATION Cojocaru, Alexandru Olivieri, Sergio Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
geographic_facet	Europe and Central Asia Serbia
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 6889
description	The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Cojocaru, Alexandru Olivieri, Sergio
author_facet	Cojocaru, Alexandru Olivieri, Sergio
author_sort	Cojocaru, Alexandru
title	Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
title_short	Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
title_full	Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
title_fullStr	Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
title_full_unstemmed	Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach
title_sort	updating the poverty estimates in serbia in the absence of micro data : a microsimulation approach
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19574666/updating-poverty-estimates-serbia-absence-micro-data-microsimulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797
_version_	1764442713777766400

Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

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