A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C
This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/01/11646015/note-economic-cost-climate-change-rationale-limit-below-2°c http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19943 |
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okr-10986-19943 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
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Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
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ADAPTATION ACTIONS ADAPTATION COSTS ADAPTATION DECISIONS ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ALLOCATION ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CARBON CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONDITIONS CLIMATE DAMAGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELERS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REFUGEES CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SIGNAL CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS CLIMATIC SHOCKS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS DAMAGES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT RATE DRAINAGE DROUGHT ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION REDUCTION EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS EMISSIONS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOOD PROTECTION FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM FLOOD RISK FLOODS GHG GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS HEAT HEAT WAVE HEAT WAVES HOT SUMMER HOT SUMMERS HURRICANE HURRICANES HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES ICE ICE SHEET IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION INCOME INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURES INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INSURANCE INDUSTRY INSURANCE SCHEMES INTEREST RATE IPCC LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LOCAL CLIMATE LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGES LOCAL CLIMATES MALADAPTATION MITIGATION MITIGATION POLICIES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS PH POWER PLANTS PP PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESOURCE ECONOMICS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE RETROFITTING RISK MANAGEMENT ROADS SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SUBSTITUTION SUMMER TEMPERATURE SUMMER TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TOLL TOTAL COST TRANSPORT TRANSPORT NETWORK TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS TRANSPORTATION SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES VEHICLES WEATHER CONDITIONS WIND WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY |
| spellingShingle |
ADAPTATION ACTIONS ADAPTATION COSTS ADAPTATION DECISIONS ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ALLOCATION ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CARBON CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONDITIONS CLIMATE DAMAGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELERS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REFUGEES CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SIGNAL CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS CLIMATIC SHOCKS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS DAMAGES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT RATE DRAINAGE DROUGHT ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION REDUCTION EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS EMISSIONS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOOD PROTECTION FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM FLOOD RISK FLOODS GHG GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS HEAT HEAT WAVE HEAT WAVES HOT SUMMER HOT SUMMERS HURRICANE HURRICANES HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES ICE ICE SHEET IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION INCOME INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURES INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INSURANCE INDUSTRY INSURANCE SCHEMES INTEREST RATE IPCC LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LOCAL CLIMATE LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGES LOCAL CLIMATES MALADAPTATION MITIGATION MITIGATION POLICIES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS PH POWER PLANTS PP PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESOURCE ECONOMICS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE RETROFITTING RISK MANAGEMENT ROADS SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SUBSTITUTION SUMMER TEMPERATURE SUMMER TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TOLL TOTAL COST TRANSPORT TRANSPORT NETWORK TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS TRANSPORTATION SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES VEHICLES WEATHER CONDITIONS WIND WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY Hallegatte, Stephane Dumas, Patrice Hourcade, Jean-Charles A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 5179 |
| description |
This note highlights a major reason to
limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This
reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty
associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty
arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the
change s impacts at the sector level, and their
macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference
between the future climate and the current one, the more
difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve,
making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions.
Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors
can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely
unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in
climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact
on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently
cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive
capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves
more than marginal economic changes and when structural
economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts
are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which
the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The
existence of such thresholds is supported by past
experiences, including economic disruptions caused by
natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed
infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic
shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a
consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost,
but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because
this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more
difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents
an additional motive to mitigate climate change. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Hallegatte, Stephane Dumas, Patrice Hourcade, Jean-Charles |
| author_facet |
Hallegatte, Stephane Dumas, Patrice Hourcade, Jean-Charles |
| author_sort |
Hallegatte, Stephane |
| title |
A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| title_short |
A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| title_full |
A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| title_fullStr |
A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| title_full_unstemmed |
A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C |
| title_sort |
note on the economic cost of climate change and the rationale to limit it below 2°c |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/01/11646015/note-economic-cost-climate-change-rationale-limit-below-2°c http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19943 |
| _version_ |
1764444078012891136 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-199432021-04-23T14:03:52Z A Note on the Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Rationale to Limit it Below 2°C Hallegatte, Stephane Dumas, Patrice Hourcade, Jean-Charles ADAPTATION ACTIONS ADAPTATION COSTS ADAPTATION DECISIONS ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ALLOCATION ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CARBON CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE PROBLEM CLIMATE CHANGES CLIMATE CONDITIONS CLIMATE DAMAGES CLIMATE IMPACTS CLIMATE MODEL CLIMATE MODELERS CLIMATE MODELS CLIMATE POLICIES CLIMATE PROJECTIONS CLIMATE REFUGEES CLIMATE REGIMES CLIMATE SCENARIOS CLIMATE SIGNAL CLIMATE SYSTEM CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY CLIMATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS CLIMATIC SHOCKS COPE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE COST-BENEFIT COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE COSTBENEFIT ANALYSIS DAMAGES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DISCOUNT RATE DRAINAGE DROUGHT ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ECONOMIC COSTS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION ECONOMIC IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMIC MODELS ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM ELASTICITIES ELASTICITY EMISSION EMISSION REDUCTION EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS EMISSIONS ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXTREME EVENTS EXTREME WEATHER EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS FINANCIAL RESOURCES FINANCIAL SUPPORT FLOOD FLOOD PROTECTION FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM FLOOD RISK FLOODS GHG GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE GLOBAL CLIMATE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE GLOBAL WARMING GREENHOUSE GREENHOUSE GAS GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS HEAT HEAT WAVE HEAT WAVES HOT SUMMER HOT SUMMERS HURRICANE HURRICANES HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES ICE ICE SHEET IMPACT OF CLIMATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION INCOME INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDING INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INFRASTRUCTURES INSURANCE INSURANCE COMPANIES INSURANCE INDUSTRY INSURANCE SCHEMES INTEREST RATE IPCC LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LOCAL CLIMATE LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGES LOCAL CLIMATES MALADAPTATION MITIGATION MITIGATION POLICIES NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION NATURAL DISASTERS PH POWER PLANTS PP PRECIPITATION RAINFALL RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE RESOURCE ECONOMICS RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE RETROFITTING RISK MANAGEMENT ROADS SEA LEVEL RISE SEA-LEVEL SEA-LEVEL RISE SUBSTITUTION SUMMER TEMPERATURE SUMMER TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE INCREASE TOLL TOTAL COST TRANSPORT TRANSPORT NETWORK TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS TRANSPORTATION SERVICES UNCERTAINTIES VEHICLES WEATHER CONDITIONS WIND WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY This note highlights a major reason to limit climate change to the lowest possible levels. This reason follows from the large increase in uncertainty associated with high levels of warming. This uncertainty arises from three sources: the change in climate itself, the change s impacts at the sector level, and their macroeconomic costs. First, the greater the difference between the future climate and the current one, the more difficult it is to predict how local climates will evolve, making it more difficult to anticipate adaptation actions. Second, the adaptive capacity of various economic sectors can already be observed for limited warming, but is largely unknown for larger changes. The larger the change in climate, therefore, the more uncertain is the final impact on economic sectors. Third, economic systems can efficiently cope with sectoral losses, but macroeconomic-level adaptive capacity is difficult to assess, especially when it involves more than marginal economic changes and when structural economic shifts are required. In particular, these shifts are difficult to model and involve thresholds beyond which the total macroeconomic cost would rise rapidly. The existence of such thresholds is supported by past experiences, including economic disruptions caused by natural disasters, observed difficulties funding needed infrastructure, and regional crises due to rapid economic shifts induced by new technologies or globalization. As a consequence, larger warming is associated with higher cost, but also with larger uncertainty about the cost. Because this uncertainty translates into risks and makes it more difficult to implement adaptation strategies, it represents an additional motive to mitigate climate change. 2014-09-02T20:51:16Z 2014-09-02T20:51:16Z 2010-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/01/11646015/note-economic-cost-climate-change-rationale-limit-below-2°c http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19943 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 5179 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |