The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis

This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size...

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Main Authors:	Cororaton, Caesar B., Knight, David S.
Format:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE POVERTY ADVERSE EFFECT AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICE BASIC FOODS BASIC NEEDS BEEF BREAD CASH CROP INCOME CASH CROPS CASH-CROP CASSAVA COCOA COCOA PRICE COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE MARKETS COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICES COOKING COPRA PRICE COPRA PRICES COST OF LIVING COST OF TRANSPORT CRUDE OIL PRICE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DOMESTIC ECONOMIES DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIES OF SCALE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY PRICES EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATES EXCISE TAX EXISTING GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE EXPORT MARKETS EXPOSURE EXPOSURE TO RISKS EXTREME POVERTY FARMERS FATS FEEDS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES FINANCIAL MARKETS FIXED ASSET FOOD COMMODITIES FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD IMPORTS FOOD ITEMS FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY FOOD STAPLES FOOD TRANSPORT FOODSTUFF FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS FRUIT FRUITS FUEL FUEL COSTS FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICE INCREASES FUEL PRICES FUTURE PRICES GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GROWTH RATES HIGH TRANSPORTATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPACT OF SHOCKS INCOME GROWTH INCOME RISK INCOMES INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMATION SERVICES INSURANCE INSURANCE POLICIES INTERNATIONAL CRUDE OIL INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTERNATIONAL TRADE LACK OF INFORMATION MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MEAT MONETARY POLICY MONOPOLIES NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY LINES NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES PALM OIL PEAK INFLATION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POTATO POVERTY GAP POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INDICATORS POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY SEVERITY PRICE BEHAVIOR PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE CONTROLS PRICE DECREASE PRICE FLOOR PRICE INCENTIVES PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE RISK PRICE TREND PRICE TRENDS PRICE VARIATION PRICE VARIATIONS PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE TRANSFERS PRODUCER PRICE PRODUCER PRICES PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC TRANSPORT PURCHASING REMOTE LOCATION RENEWABLE ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION ROAD ROAD CONNECTIONS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL POPULATIONS SAGO SALES SAVINGS SMALL BUSINESSES SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL PROTECTION STAPLE FOODS SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLIERS SUPPLY ELASTICITY TAX RATES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORTATION COST TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURY TRUE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS YAM
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20233073/impact-exogenous-shocks-households-pacific-micro-simulation-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20371

id	okr-10986-20371
recordtype	oai_dc
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	ABSOLUTE POVERTY ADVERSE EFFECT AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICE BASIC FOODS BASIC NEEDS BEEF BREAD CASH CROP INCOME CASH CROPS CASH-CROP CASSAVA COCOA COCOA PRICE COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE MARKETS COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICES COOKING COPRA PRICE COPRA PRICES COST OF LIVING COST OF TRANSPORT CRUDE OIL PRICE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DOMESTIC ECONOMIES DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIES OF SCALE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY PRICES EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATES EXCISE TAX EXISTING GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE EXPORT MARKETS EXPOSURE EXPOSURE TO RISKS EXTREME POVERTY FARMERS FATS FEEDS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES FINANCIAL MARKETS FIXED ASSET FOOD COMMODITIES FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD IMPORTS FOOD ITEMS FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY FOOD STAPLES FOOD TRANSPORT FOODSTUFF FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS FRUIT FRUITS FUEL FUEL COSTS FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICE INCREASES FUEL PRICES FUTURE PRICES GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GROWTH RATES HIGH TRANSPORTATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPACT OF SHOCKS INCOME GROWTH INCOME RISK INCOMES INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMATION SERVICES INSURANCE INSURANCE POLICIES INTERNATIONAL CRUDE OIL INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTERNATIONAL TRADE LACK OF INFORMATION MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MEAT MONETARY POLICY MONOPOLIES NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY LINES NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES PALM OIL PEAK INFLATION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POTATO POVERTY GAP POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INDICATORS POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY SEVERITY PRICE BEHAVIOR PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE CONTROLS PRICE DECREASE PRICE FLOOR PRICE INCENTIVES PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE RISK PRICE TREND PRICE TRENDS PRICE VARIATION PRICE VARIATIONS PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE TRANSFERS PRODUCER PRICE PRODUCER PRICES PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC TRANSPORT PURCHASING REMOTE LOCATION RENEWABLE ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION ROAD ROAD CONNECTIONS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL POPULATIONS SAGO SALES SAVINGS SMALL BUSINESSES SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL PROTECTION STAPLE FOODS SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLIERS SUPPLY ELASTICITY TAX RATES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORTATION COST TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURY TRUE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS YAM
spellingShingle	ABSOLUTE POVERTY ADVERSE EFFECT AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICE BASIC FOODS BASIC NEEDS BEEF BREAD CASH CROP INCOME CASH CROPS CASH-CROP CASSAVA COCOA COCOA PRICE COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE MARKETS COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICES COOKING COPRA PRICE COPRA PRICES COST OF LIVING COST OF TRANSPORT CRUDE OIL PRICE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DOMESTIC ECONOMIES DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIES OF SCALE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY PRICES EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATES EXCISE TAX EXISTING GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE EXPORT MARKETS EXPOSURE EXPOSURE TO RISKS EXTREME POVERTY FARMERS FATS FEEDS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES FINANCIAL MARKETS FIXED ASSET FOOD COMMODITIES FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD IMPORTS FOOD ITEMS FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY FOOD STAPLES FOOD TRANSPORT FOODSTUFF FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS FRUIT FRUITS FUEL FUEL COSTS FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICE INCREASES FUEL PRICES FUTURE PRICES GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GROWTH RATES HIGH TRANSPORTATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPACT OF SHOCKS INCOME GROWTH INCOME RISK INCOMES INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMATION SERVICES INSURANCE INSURANCE POLICIES INTERNATIONAL CRUDE OIL INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTERNATIONAL TRADE LACK OF INFORMATION MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MEAT MONETARY POLICY MONOPOLIES NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY LINES NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES PALM OIL PEAK INFLATION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POTATO POVERTY GAP POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INDICATORS POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY SEVERITY PRICE BEHAVIOR PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE CONTROLS PRICE DECREASE PRICE FLOOR PRICE INCENTIVES PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE RISK PRICE TREND PRICE TRENDS PRICE VARIATION PRICE VARIATIONS PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE TRANSFERS PRODUCER PRICE PRODUCER PRICES PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC TRANSPORT PURCHASING REMOTE LOCATION RENEWABLE ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION ROAD ROAD CONNECTIONS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL POPULATIONS SAGO SALES SAVINGS SMALL BUSINESSES SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL PROTECTION STAPLE FOODS SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLIERS SUPPLY ELASTICITY TAX RATES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORTATION COST TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURY TRUE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS YAM Cororaton, Caesar B. Knight, David S. The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
geographic_facet	East Asia and Pacific Oceania Papua New Guinea
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7046
description	This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government.
format	Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author	Cororaton, Caesar B. Knight, David S.
author_facet	Cororaton, Caesar B. Knight, David S.
author_sort	Cororaton, Caesar B.
title	The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
title_short	The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
title_full	The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
title_fullStr	The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
title_full_unstemmed	The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis
title_sort	impact of exogenous shocks on households in the pacific : a micro-simulation analysis
publisher	World Bank Group, Washington, DC
publishDate	2014
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20233073/impact-exogenous-shocks-households-pacific-micro-simulation-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20371
_version_	1764445180633546752
spelling	okr-10986-203712021-04-23T14:03:55Z The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis Cororaton, Caesar B. Knight, David S. ABSOLUTE POVERTY ADVERSE EFFECT AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AGRICULTURAL LAND AGRICULTURE AVERAGE PRICE BASIC FOODS BASIC NEEDS BEEF BREAD CASH CROP INCOME CASH CROPS CASH-CROP CASSAVA COCOA COCOA PRICE COFFEE PRICE COFFEE PRICES COMMODITY COMMODITY PRICE COMMODITY PRICES COMPETITIVE MARKETS COMPETITIVENESS CONSUMER PRICE CONSUMER PRICES COOKING COPRA PRICE COPRA PRICES COST OF LIVING COST OF TRANSPORT CRUDE OIL PRICE CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DOMESTIC ECONOMIES DOMESTIC PRICES ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC SHOCKS ECONOMIES OF SCALE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ENERGY PRICES EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXCHANGE RATES EXCISE TAX EXISTING GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE EXPORT MARKETS EXPOSURE EXPOSURE TO RISKS EXTREME POVERTY FARMERS FATS FEEDS FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES FINANCIAL MARKETS FIXED ASSET FOOD COMMODITIES FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD EXPENDITURE FOOD IMPORTS FOOD ITEMS FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY FOOD STAPLES FOOD TRANSPORT FOODSTUFF FREIGHT FREIGHT COSTS FRUIT FRUITS FUEL FUEL COSTS FUEL PRICE FUEL PRICE INCREASES FUEL PRICES FUTURE PRICES GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY GROWTH RATES HIGH TRANSPORTATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD VULNERABILITY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IDIOSYNCRATIC SHOCKS IMPACT OF SHOCKS INCOME GROWTH INCOME RISK INCOMES INEQUALITY INFLATION INFORMATION SERVICES INSURANCE INSURANCE POLICIES INTERNATIONAL CRUDE OIL INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTERNATIONAL TRADE LACK OF INFORMATION MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MARKET ACCESS MARKET PRICE MARKET PRICES MEAT MONETARY POLICY MONOPOLIES NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY LINES NATURAL RESOURCE NATURAL RESOURCES PALM OIL PEAK INFLATION PETROLEUM PRODUCTS POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POTATO POVERTY GAP POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY INDICATORS POVERTY LINE POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY SEVERITY PRICE BEHAVIOR PRICE CHANGE PRICE CHANGES PRICE CONTROLS PRICE DECREASE PRICE FLOOR PRICE INCENTIVES PRICE INCREASE PRICE INCREASES PRICE RISK PRICE TREND PRICE TRENDS PRICE VARIATION PRICE VARIATIONS PRICE VOLATILITY PRIVATE TRANSFERS PRODUCER PRICE PRODUCER PRICES PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC TRANSPORT PURCHASING REMOTE LOCATION RENEWABLE ENERGY RISK MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION ROAD ROAD CONNECTIONS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POOR RURAL POPULATIONS SAGO SALES SAVINGS SMALL BUSINESSES SMALL COUNTRIES SOCIAL PROTECTION STAPLE FOODS SUBSTITUTE SUBSTITUTION SUGAR SUPPLIERS SUPPLY ELASTICITY TAX RATES TRANSPORT TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT EXPENDITURE TRANSPORT SECTOR TRANSPORTATION COST TRANSPORTATION COSTS TREASURY TRUE VEGETABLES VOLATILITY WHEAT WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS YAM This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government. 2014-10-06T20:27:57Z 2014-10-06T20:27:57Z 2014-09 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20233073/impact-exogenous-shocks-households-pacific-micro-simulation-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20371 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7046 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research East Asia and Pacific Oceania Papua New Guinea

The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Households in the Pacific : A Micro-Simulation Analysis

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