The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa

Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty. These economic impacts includ...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	World Bank Group
Format:	Publication
Language:	en_US
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2014
Subjects:	Ebola crisis economic impact infectious disease health economics epidemic economic contagion economic output productivity fiscal deficits poverty
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20592

id	okr-10986-20592
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-205922021-04-23T14:03:56Z The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa World Bank Group Ebola crisis economic impact infectious disease health economics epidemic economic contagion economic output productivity fiscal deficits poverty Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty. These economic impacts include the costs of healthcare and forgone productivity of those directly affected but, more importantly, they arise from choices by others to avoid exposure to the disease, called 'aversion behavior'. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole. The short-term (2014) impact of Ebola on economic output is on the order of US$359 million in foregone output in 2013 prices. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term (2015) impact of the epidemic. A 'Low Ebola' scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, while 'High Ebola' corresponds to slower containment in the core three countries, with some broader regional contagion. The estimates of the GDP lost as a result of the epidemic in the core three countries for 2015 alone sum to US$97 million under Low Ebola (implying some recovery from 2014), and US$809 million under High Ebola (in 2013 dollars). Over the medium term, however, both epidemiological and economic contagion in the broader sub-region of West Africa is likely. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under Low Ebola, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US$2.2 billion in 2014 and US$1.6 billion in 2015. Under High Ebola, the estimates are US$7.4 billion in 2014, and US$25.2 billion in 2015. This analysis shows that the economic impacts are already very serious in the core three countries - particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone - and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment, High Ebola scenario. In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior. If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015 - almost 2.5 times the combined 2013 GDP of the core three countries. 2014-11-20T16:16:31Z 2014-11-20T16:16:31Z 2014-11-20 978-1-4648-0438-0 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20592 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research :: Publication Africa West Africa Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	en_US
topic	Ebola crisis economic impact infectious disease health economics epidemic economic contagion economic output productivity fiscal deficits poverty
spellingShingle	Ebola crisis economic impact infectious disease health economics epidemic economic contagion economic output productivity fiscal deficits poverty World Bank Group The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
geographic_facet	Africa West Africa Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone
description	Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty. These economic impacts include the costs of healthcare and forgone productivity of those directly affected but, more importantly, they arise from choices by others to avoid exposure to the disease, called 'aversion behavior'. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole. The short-term (2014) impact of Ebola on economic output is on the order of US$359 million in foregone output in 2013 prices. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term (2015) impact of the epidemic. A 'Low Ebola' scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, while 'High Ebola' corresponds to slower containment in the core three countries, with some broader regional contagion. The estimates of the GDP lost as a result of the epidemic in the core three countries for 2015 alone sum to US$97 million under Low Ebola (implying some recovery from 2014), and US$809 million under High Ebola (in 2013 dollars). Over the medium term, however, both epidemiological and economic contagion in the broader sub-region of West Africa is likely. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under Low Ebola, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US$2.2 billion in 2014 and US$1.6 billion in 2015. Under High Ebola, the estimates are US$7.4 billion in 2014, and US$25.2 billion in 2015. This analysis shows that the economic impacts are already very serious in the core three countries - particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone - and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment, High Ebola scenario. In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior. If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015 - almost 2.5 times the combined 2013 GDP of the core three countries.
format	Publications & Research :: Publication
author	World Bank Group
author_facet	World Bank Group
author_sort	World Bank Group
title	The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
title_short	The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
title_full	The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
title_fullStr	The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
title_full_unstemmed	The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa
title_sort	economic impact of the 2014 ebola epidemic : short- and medium-term estimates for west africa
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2014
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20592
_version_	1764445821164584960

The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short- and Medium-Term Estimates for West Africa

Similar Items