Success in Difficult Environments : A Portfolio Analysis of Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
The World Bank Group has identified support to fragile and conflict-affected states as a strategic priority. This paper provides a systematic portfolio review of the International Development Association-funded projects in fragile and conflict-affe...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20366317/success-difficult-environments-portfolio-analysis-fragile-conflict-affected-states http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20618 |
| Summary: | The World Bank Group has identified
support to fragile and conflict-affected states as a
strategic priority. This paper provides a systematic
portfolio review of the International Development
Association-funded projects in fragile and conflict-affected
states during 2001 to 2013 and a detailed empirical analysis
of the correlations between project and country-level
characteristics with project outcome ratings. The portfolio
review identifies a decline in the proportional amount of
resources directed to fragile and conflict-affected states
and a decline in the number of internationally recruited
staff based in these countries. The empirical analysis finds
no statistical difference in whether projects obtain at
least a moderately satisfactory outcome rating between
countries that are fragile and conflict-affected states and
those that are not. Examination of the distribution of
project outcome ratings indicates that projects in fragile
and conflict-affected states obtain slightly lower ratings
conditional on being unsatisfactory or satisfactory.
Detailed cross-section regression analysis finds that
indicators of project complexity, such as supervision costs,
staff time, preparation time, and financing, are correlated
with lower outcome ratings. Project leader characteristics
are correlated with project outcome ratings, but to a lesser
degree in fragile and conflict-affected states, potentially
indicating that it is more difficult for project leaders to
influence project outcomes in these environments. Last, a new
approach to control for unobservable project
characteristics, such as inherent complexity or ambition,
shows preliminary evidence that changes in the project
leader and increases in the supervision budget are
correlated with improvements in project performance. |
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