Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic eff...
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| Format: | Policy Research Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696 |
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okr-10986-206962021-04-23T14:03:59Z Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanic, Maros AGENTS AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURE APPAREL APPLICATIONS BARRIERS TO TRADE BENCHMARK BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TARIFF BILATERAL TRADE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE BUSINESS SERVICES CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL OWNERS COMMERCIAL SERVICES COMPETITIVENESS COUNTRY TARIFF COVERAGE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION DEMAND FOR GOODS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISASTERS DOMESTIC FIRMS DOMESTIC MARKET ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ELASTICITY EMBARGO EQUILIBRIUM EX POST ASSESSMENT EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINANCIAL SERVICES FOREIGN COMPETITION FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AREA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS HOTELS IMPORT DATA IMPORT VALUES IMPORTING COUNTRY IMPORTS IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS INSURANCE INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTIGATIONS INVESTMENT FLOWS METAL PRODUCTS MFN MONOPOLIES MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM NATURAL RESOURCES NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPPORTUNITY COSTS OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE PER CAPITA INCOME PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION DATA PROTECTION RATES PUBLIC MONOPOLIES PUBLIC SERVICES REAL GDP RECIPROCITY REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION RETAIL TRADE SAVINGS SERVICE SECTORS SERVICES LIBERALIZATION SERVICES SECTORS SERVICES TRADE SKILLED LABOR TARIFF DATA TARIFF EQUIVALENTS TARIFF LINES TARIFF PROTECTION TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REVENUE TAX REVENUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOURISM TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCES TRADE CONCESSIONS TRADE COSTS TRADE DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE IN SERVICES TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE POLICY TRADE PREFERENCES TRADE REFORM TRADE REFORMS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUMES TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT SERVICES UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URUGUAY ROUND VALUE ADDED WAGE RATES WAGES WELFARE LOSS WELFARE LOSSES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists. 2014-12-12T21:23:08Z 2014-12-12T21:23:08Z 2014-12 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7135 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
AGENTS AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURE APPAREL APPLICATIONS BARRIERS TO TRADE BENCHMARK BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TARIFF BILATERAL TRADE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE BUSINESS SERVICES CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL OWNERS COMMERCIAL SERVICES COMPETITIVENESS COUNTRY TARIFF COVERAGE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION DEMAND FOR GOODS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISASTERS DOMESTIC FIRMS DOMESTIC MARKET ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ELASTICITY EMBARGO EQUILIBRIUM EX POST ASSESSMENT EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINANCIAL SERVICES FOREIGN COMPETITION FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AREA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS HOTELS IMPORT DATA IMPORT VALUES IMPORTING COUNTRY IMPORTS IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS INSURANCE INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTIGATIONS INVESTMENT FLOWS METAL PRODUCTS MFN MONOPOLIES MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM NATURAL RESOURCES NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPPORTUNITY COSTS OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE PER CAPITA INCOME PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION DATA PROTECTION RATES PUBLIC MONOPOLIES PUBLIC SERVICES REAL GDP RECIPROCITY REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION RETAIL TRADE SAVINGS SERVICE SECTORS SERVICES LIBERALIZATION SERVICES SECTORS SERVICES TRADE SKILLED LABOR TARIFF DATA TARIFF EQUIVALENTS TARIFF LINES TARIFF PROTECTION TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REVENUE TAX REVENUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOURISM TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCES TRADE CONCESSIONS TRADE COSTS TRADE DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE IN SERVICES TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE POLICY TRADE PREFERENCES TRADE REFORM TRADE REFORMS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUMES TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT SERVICES UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URUGUAY ROUND VALUE ADDED WAGE RATES WAGES WELFARE LOSS WELFARE LOSSES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO |
| spellingShingle |
AGENTS AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURE APPAREL APPLICATIONS BARRIERS TO TRADE BENCHMARK BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TARIFF BILATERAL TRADE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE BUSINESS SERVICES CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL OWNERS COMMERCIAL SERVICES COMPETITIVENESS COUNTRY TARIFF COVERAGE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION DEMAND FOR GOODS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISASTERS DOMESTIC FIRMS DOMESTIC MARKET ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ELASTICITY EMBARGO EQUILIBRIUM EX POST ASSESSMENT EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINANCIAL SERVICES FOREIGN COMPETITION FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AREA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS HOTELS IMPORT DATA IMPORT VALUES IMPORTING COUNTRY IMPORTS IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS INSURANCE INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTIGATIONS INVESTMENT FLOWS METAL PRODUCTS MFN MONOPOLIES MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM NATURAL RESOURCES NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPPORTUNITY COSTS OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE PER CAPITA INCOME PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION DATA PROTECTION RATES PUBLIC MONOPOLIES PUBLIC SERVICES REAL GDP RECIPROCITY REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION RETAIL TRADE SAVINGS SERVICE SECTORS SERVICES LIBERALIZATION SERVICES SECTORS SERVICES TRADE SKILLED LABOR TARIFF DATA TARIFF EQUIVALENTS TARIFF LINES TARIFF PROTECTION TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REVENUE TAX REVENUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOURISM TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCES TRADE CONCESSIONS TRADE COSTS TRADE DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE IN SERVICES TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE POLICY TRADE PREFERENCES TRADE REFORM TRADE REFORMS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUMES TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT SERVICES UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URUGUAY ROUND VALUE ADDED WAGE RATES WAGES WELFARE LOSS WELFARE LOSSES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanic, Maros Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| geographic_facet |
Middle East and North Africa |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7135 |
| description |
This paper uses a global computable
general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant
countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan,
Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify
the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war
and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria
and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while
the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in
aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's
spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees
to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case
of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these
countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant
trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and
diversification. The average welfare effects are not
indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among
workers, landowners, and capitalists. |
| format |
Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper |
| author |
Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanic, Maros |
| author_facet |
Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanic, Maros |
| author_sort |
Ianchovichina, Elena |
| title |
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| title_short |
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| title_full |
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| title_fullStr |
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant |
| title_sort |
economic effects of the syrian war and the spread of the islamic state on the levant |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2014 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696 |
| _version_ |
1764446999455727616 |