Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant

This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic eff...

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Main Authors: Ianchovichina, Elena, Ivanic, Maros
Format: Policy Research Working Paper
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:
MFN
WTO
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696
id okr-10986-20696
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-206962021-04-23T14:03:59Z Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant Ianchovichina, Elena Ivanic, Maros AGENTS AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AGRICULTURAL TRADE AGRICULTURE APPAREL APPLICATIONS BARRIERS TO TRADE BENCHMARK BENEFITS OF TRADE BILATERAL TARIFF BILATERAL TRADE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE BUSINESS SERVICES CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL OWNERS COMMERCIAL SERVICES COMPETITIVENESS COUNTRY TARIFF COVERAGE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUSTOMS CUSTOMS UNION DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION DEMAND FOR GOODS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT POLICY DIRECT INVESTMENT DISASTERS DOMESTIC FIRMS DOMESTIC MARKET ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ELASTICITY EMBARGO EQUILIBRIUM EX POST ASSESSMENT EXPORT MARKETS EXPORT SHARES EXPORTERS EXPORTS FINANCIAL SERVICES FOREIGN COMPETITION FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN INVESTMENT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP FREE TRADE FREE TRADE AREA GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GLOBAL TRADE GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS HOTELS IMPORT DATA IMPORT VALUES IMPORTING COUNTRY IMPORTS IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS INSURANCE INTERMEDIATE INPUTS INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVESTIGATIONS INVESTMENT FLOWS METAL PRODUCTS MFN MONOPOLIES MULTILATERAL TRADE MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM NATURAL RESOURCES NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OPPORTUNITY COSTS OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE PER CAPITA INCOME PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTECTION DATA PROTECTION RATES PUBLIC MONOPOLIES PUBLIC SERVICES REAL GDP RECIPROCITY REGIONAL INTEGRATION REGIONAL TRADE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION RETAIL TRADE SAVINGS SERVICE SECTORS SERVICES LIBERALIZATION SERVICES SECTORS SERVICES TRADE SKILLED LABOR TARIFF DATA TARIFF EQUIVALENTS TARIFF LINES TARIFF PROTECTION TARIFF RATE TARIFF RATES TARIFF REVENUE TAX REVENUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS TOTAL COSTS TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOURISM TRADE AGREEMENT TRADE AGREEMENTS TRADE BALANCES TRADE CONCESSIONS TRADE COSTS TRADE DATA TRADE FLOWS TRADE IN SERVICES TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE LOSSES TRADE POLICY TRADE PREFERENCES TRADE REFORM TRADE REFORMS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE VALUE TRADE VOLUMES TRANSPORT COSTS TRANSPORT SERVICES UNSKILLED LABOR UNSKILLED WORKERS URUGUAY ROUND VALUE ADDED WAGE RATES WAGES WELFARE LOSS WELFARE LOSSES WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION WTO This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists. 2014-12-12T21:23:08Z 2014-12-12T21:23:08Z 2014-12 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7135 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic AGENTS
AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AGRICULTURE
APPAREL
APPLICATIONS
BARRIERS TO TRADE
BENCHMARK
BENEFITS OF TRADE
BILATERAL TARIFF
BILATERAL TRADE
BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE
BUSINESS SERVICES
CAPITAL GOODS
CAPITAL OWNERS
COMMERCIAL SERVICES
COMPETITIVENESS
COUNTRY TARIFF
COVERAGE
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
CUSTOMS
CUSTOMS UNION
DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION
DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION
DEMAND FOR GOODS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DIRECT INVESTMENT
DISASTERS
DOMESTIC FIRMS
DOMESTIC MARKET
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
ELASTICITY
EMBARGO
EQUILIBRIUM
EX POST ASSESSMENT
EXPORT MARKETS
EXPORT SHARES
EXPORTERS
EXPORTS
FINANCIAL SERVICES
FOREIGN COMPETITION
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
FREE TRADE
FREE TRADE AREA
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
GLOBAL TRADE
GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS
HOTELS
IMPORT DATA
IMPORT VALUES
IMPORTING COUNTRY
IMPORTS
IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS
INSURANCE
INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INVESTIGATIONS
INVESTMENT FLOWS
METAL PRODUCTS
MFN
MONOPOLIES
MULTILATERAL TRADE
MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM
NATURAL RESOURCES
NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
OIL PRICE
OIL PRICES
OPPORTUNITY COSTS
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
PER CAPITA INCOME
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
PRODUCTION COSTS
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTECTION DATA
PROTECTION RATES
PUBLIC MONOPOLIES
PUBLIC SERVICES
REAL GDP
RECIPROCITY
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
REGIONAL TRADE
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION
RETAIL TRADE
SAVINGS
SERVICE SECTORS
SERVICES LIBERALIZATION
SERVICES SECTORS
SERVICES TRADE
SKILLED LABOR
TARIFF DATA
TARIFF EQUIVALENTS
TARIFF LINES
TARIFF PROTECTION
TARIFF RATE
TARIFF RATES
TARIFF REVENUE
TAX REVENUE
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TOTAL COSTS
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TOURISM
TRADE AGREEMENT
TRADE AGREEMENTS
TRADE BALANCES
TRADE CONCESSIONS
TRADE COSTS
TRADE DATA
TRADE FLOWS
TRADE IN SERVICES
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE LOSSES
TRADE POLICY
TRADE PREFERENCES
TRADE REFORM
TRADE REFORMS
TRADE RESTRICTIONS
TRADE VALUE
TRADE VOLUMES
TRANSPORT COSTS
TRANSPORT SERVICES
UNSKILLED LABOR
UNSKILLED WORKERS
URUGUAY ROUND
VALUE ADDED
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WELFARE LOSS
WELFARE LOSSES
WORLD TRADE
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
WTO
spellingShingle AGENTS
AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
AGRICULTURAL TRADE
AGRICULTURE
APPAREL
APPLICATIONS
BARRIERS TO TRADE
BENCHMARK
BENEFITS OF TRADE
BILATERAL TARIFF
BILATERAL TRADE
BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
BORDER INFRASTRUCTURE
BUSINESS SERVICES
CAPITAL GOODS
CAPITAL OWNERS
COMMERCIAL SERVICES
COMPETITIVENESS
COUNTRY TARIFF
COVERAGE
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
CUSTOMS
CUSTOMS UNION
DEEP TRADE INTEGRATION
DEEPER TRADE INTEGRATION
DEMAND FOR GOODS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DIRECT INVESTMENT
DISASTERS
DOMESTIC FIRMS
DOMESTIC MARKET
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
ELASTICITY
EMBARGO
EQUILIBRIUM
EX POST ASSESSMENT
EXPORT MARKETS
EXPORT SHARES
EXPORTERS
EXPORTS
FINANCIAL SERVICES
FOREIGN COMPETITION
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
FOREIGN INVESTMENT
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
FREE TRADE
FREE TRADE AREA
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
GLOBAL TRADE
GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS
HOTELS
IMPORT DATA
IMPORT VALUES
IMPORTING COUNTRY
IMPORTS
IMPROVED MARKET ACCESS
INSURANCE
INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
INTERNATIONAL LABOR MOBILITY
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
INVESTIGATIONS
INVESTMENT FLOWS
METAL PRODUCTS
MFN
MONOPOLIES
MULTILATERAL TRADE
MULTILATERAL TRADE REFORM
NATURAL RESOURCES
NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
OIL PRICE
OIL PRICES
OPPORTUNITY COSTS
OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE
PER CAPITA INCOME
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
PRODUCTION COSTS
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTECTION DATA
PROTECTION RATES
PUBLIC MONOPOLIES
PUBLIC SERVICES
REAL GDP
RECIPROCITY
REGIONAL INTEGRATION
REGIONAL TRADE
REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION
RETAIL TRADE
SAVINGS
SERVICE SECTORS
SERVICES LIBERALIZATION
SERVICES SECTORS
SERVICES TRADE
SKILLED LABOR
TARIFF DATA
TARIFF EQUIVALENTS
TARIFF LINES
TARIFF PROTECTION
TARIFF RATE
TARIFF RATES
TARIFF REVENUE
TAX REVENUE
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TOTAL COSTS
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TOURISM
TRADE AGREEMENT
TRADE AGREEMENTS
TRADE BALANCES
TRADE CONCESSIONS
TRADE COSTS
TRADE DATA
TRADE FLOWS
TRADE IN SERVICES
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
TRADE LOSSES
TRADE POLICY
TRADE PREFERENCES
TRADE REFORM
TRADE REFORMS
TRADE RESTRICTIONS
TRADE VALUE
TRADE VOLUMES
TRANSPORT COSTS
TRANSPORT SERVICES
UNSKILLED LABOR
UNSKILLED WORKERS
URUGUAY ROUND
VALUE ADDED
WAGE RATES
WAGES
WELFARE LOSS
WELFARE LOSSES
WORLD TRADE
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
WTO
Ianchovichina, Elena
Ivanic, Maros
Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
geographic_facet Middle East and North Africa
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7135
description This paper uses a global computable general-equilibrium framework with new detail on six Levant countries -- the Arab Republic of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic, and Turkey -- to quantify the direct and indirect economic effects of the Syrian war and the advance of the Islamic State on the Levant. Syria and Iraq bear the brunt of the direct economic costs, while the other Levant countries lose in per capita but not in aggregate terms. The fact that the Islamic State's spread has undermined regional trade adds to varying degrees to the direct costs in all Levant economies and in the case of Syria and Iraq doubles the welfare losses. All these countries are foregoing opportunities to expand intra-Levant trade and the associated gains in economic efficiency and diversification. The average welfare effects are not indicative of within-country incidence, which varies among workers, landowners, and capitalists.
format Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper
author Ianchovichina, Elena
Ivanic, Maros
author_facet Ianchovichina, Elena
Ivanic, Maros
author_sort Ianchovichina, Elena
title Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
title_short Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
title_full Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
title_fullStr Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
title_full_unstemmed Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant
title_sort economic effects of the syrian war and the spread of the islamic state on the levant
publisher World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate 2014
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/12/22316371/economic-effects-syrian-war-spread-islamic-state-levant
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20696
_version_ 1764446999455727616