Pakistan Poverty Trends, Scenarios and Drivers

This policy paper examines recent poverty trends in Pakistan. Official statistics continue to indicate strong poverty reduction through 2010-11, thanks in large part to policies and investments that boosted productivity in the non-agricultural sec...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Lopez-Calix, Jose, Mejia, Carolina, Newhouse, David, Sobrado, Carlos
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:	ACCESS TO EDUCATION ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE ACCESS TO SERVICES ACCOUNTING AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AGRICULTURAL WORKERS ANNUAL CHANGE ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE GROWTH BANK POLICY BENEFICIARIES BENEFICIARY BENEFICIARY HOUSEHOLDS CASH TRANSFER CASH TRANSFERS CONFLICT CONSUMER DURABLES CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMPTION DATA CONSUMPTION GROWTH CURRENT POVERTY DATA QUALITY DECLINE IN POVERTY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT GOALS DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISBURSEMENT DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DRIVERS OF POVERTY REDUCTION DURABLE DURABLE GOODS ECONOMIC GROWTH EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE EQUAL ACCESS EQUITABLE ACCESS EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES FARM EMPLOYMENT FARM PRODUCTIVITY FARM SECTOR FISCAL POLICY FOOD CONSUMPTION FOOD PRICE FOOD PRICES FOOD SHARE GINI COEFFICIENT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HEADCOUNT POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATIO HIGH GROWTH HOMEOWNERSHIP HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IMMUNIZATION IMPACT ON POVERTY INCIDENCE OF POVERTY INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME SUPPORT INCREASE POVERTY INEQUALITY INFLATION INFLATION RATES INSURANCE INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL POVERTY LINE INTERNATIONAL STANDARD INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR TRANSFERS LEVY LIFE INSURANCE LIFE INSURANCE POLICIES LIVING STANDARD LIVING STANDARDS LOCAL GOVERNMENT MEASURING POVERTY MICRO-DATA NATIONAL POVERTY NATIONAL POVERTY LINE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE NATURAL DISASTERS NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION POLICY OPTIONS POLICY RESEARCH POOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS POOR PEOPLE POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES POVERTY INCIDENCE POVERTY INCREASE POVERTY INCREASES POVERTY LEVEL POVERTY LEVELS POVERTY LINE POVERTY LINES POVERTY MEASUREMENT POVERTY POVERTY POVERTY RATES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY STATUS PRIMARY EDUCATION PRIVATE TRANSFERS PRO-POOR PURCHASING POWER RAPID GROWTH REDUCED POVERTY REDUCING POVERTY REDUCTION IN POVERTY REGIONAL STANDARDS REMITTANCES RETURNS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL POVERTY SANITATION SAVINGS SCHOOL ATTENDANCE SECURITIES SOCIAL ASSISTANCE SOCIAL PROGRAMS STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION TARGETING TRANSFER AMOUNTS VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS WELFARE INDICATORS ZAKAT
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/20326804/pakistan-poverty-trends-scenarios-drivers http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20793

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Summary:	This policy paper examines recent poverty trends in Pakistan. Official statistics continue to indicate strong poverty reduction through 2010-11, thanks in large part to policies and investments that boosted productivity in the non-agricultural sector. Poverty fell a bit more than other countries with similar rates of growth, as growth was slightly pro-poor and also benefited the bottom 40 percent. Alternative indicators such as access to public services have also improved, though at a slower rate since 2008 the year of twin global and domestic crises that hardly hit Pakistan. While increased productivity among non-agricultural workers has been a key factor driving poverty reduction, cash transfers through the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) and workers' remittances from abroad also made moderate contributions. Simulations suggest that higher growth rates would further accelerate poverty reduction, but would have smaller effects on attaining other Millennium Development Goals. Despite this progress on poverty reductions, a major concern is that large numbers of people still remain concentrated just above the poverty line, thus remaining vulnerable to even small shocks, like natural disasters. Furthermore, the Pakistani economy has failed to create enough salaried and non-agricultural jobs, and female labor force participation remains unusually low by regional and worldwide standards. BISP cash transfers have helped reduce poverty and are well-targeted, but their coverage still is small; while remittances accrue mainly to non-poor households. If Pakistan can address these remaining constraints and also achieve more rapid growth, in particular with less frequent load-shedding and high levels of investment in human capital, the labor market has the potential to absorb new workers and further accelerate the improvement in living standards for the poor and near-poor.

Pakistan Poverty Trends, Scenarios and Drivers

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