Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach

This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting produ...

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Main Authors: Go, Delfin S., Lofgren, Hans, Mendez Ramos, Fabian, Robinson, Sherman
Format: Publications & Research
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank Group, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:
GDP
TAX
WEB
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391
id okr-10986-21391
recordtype oai_dc
spelling okr-10986-213912021-04-23T14:04:02Z Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach Go, Delfin S. Lofgren, Hans Mendez Ramos, Fabian Robinson, Sherman ADVANCED COUNTRIES AGRICULTURE ARRANGEMENT BASE YEAR CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO COAUTHORS COMMODITIES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY CONSTANT PRICES CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CURRENCY DATA ELEMENTS DATA SET DATA SETS DESCRIPTION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER DOMAIN DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS EQUILIBRIUM THEORY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR COMPONENTS FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOREIGN TRADE FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH EPISODES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA INCOMES INDEXES INDICES INDUSTRIALIZATION INEQUALITY INFORMATION PROCESSING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMICS MANUFACTURING MANUSCRIPT MEAN VALUE MEASUREMENT ERROR MODEL ESTIMATION NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL OUTPUT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION NOTATIONS OBSERVED CHANGES OPEN ACCESS OPEN ECONOMY OPTIMIZATION OUTPUTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY FORMULATION POLICY RESEARCH PRICE CHANGES PRICE SERIES PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTOTYPE REGIONAL ACCOUNTS REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE PRICES RELIABILITY RESULT RESULTS SAVINGS SERIES DATA SMALL ECONOMIES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE TARGETS TAX TAX RATES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE STRUCTURE TRANSACTION USES VALUE ADDED VALUE ADDED SERVICES WEB WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the model may have shifted over time to contribute to the generation of historically observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as prior mean values with prior error mass functions. Estimation of the parameters involves using an information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit additional information in the form of new data from a series of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were measured with error. The estimation procedure is "efficient" in the sense that it uses all available information and makes no assumptions about unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa. 2015-02-03T16:15:27Z 2015-02-03T16:15:27Z 2015-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7174 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Korea, Republic of
repository_type Digital Repository
institution_category Foreign Institution
institution Digital Repositories
building World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection World Bank
language English
en_US
topic ADVANCED COUNTRIES
AGRICULTURE
ARRANGEMENT
BASE YEAR
CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO
COAUTHORS
COMMODITIES
COMPETITIVENESS
CONSTANT ELASTICITY
CONSTANT PRICES
CONSTANT RETURNS
CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE
CURRENCY
DATA ELEMENTS
DATA SET
DATA SETS
DESCRIPTION
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER
DOMAIN
DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMIC REVIEW
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURES
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
ELASTICITY
ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
EQUATIONS
EQUILIBRIUM
EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS
EQUILIBRIUM THEORY
EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXPECTED VALUE
EXPECTED VALUES
EXPORTS
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
FACTOR COMPONENTS
FEDERAL RESERVE
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
FOREIGN TRADE
FUNCTIONAL FORM
FUTURE RESEARCH
GDP
GDP DEFLATOR
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
GLOBALIZATION
GROWTH EPISODES
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HISTORICAL DATA
INCOMES
INDEXES
INDICES
INDUSTRIALIZATION
INEQUALITY
INFORMATION PROCESSING
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MACROECONOMICS
MANUFACTURING
MANUSCRIPT
MEAN VALUE
MEASUREMENT ERROR
MODEL ESTIMATION
NATIONAL INCOME
NATIONAL OUTPUT
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
NOTATION
NOTATIONS
OBSERVED CHANGES
OPEN ACCESS
OPEN ECONOMY
OPTIMIZATION
OUTPUTS
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
POLICY FORMULATION
POLICY RESEARCH
PRICE CHANGES
PRICE SERIES
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
PRODUCTION STRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVITY
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTOTYPE
REGIONAL ACCOUNTS
REGIONAL LEVEL
RELATIVE PRICES
RELIABILITY
RESULT
RESULTS
SAVINGS
SERIES DATA
SMALL ECONOMIES
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
TARGETS
TAX
TAX RATES
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TRADE STRUCTURE
TRANSACTION
USES
VALUE ADDED
VALUE ADDED SERVICES
WEB
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
spellingShingle ADVANCED COUNTRIES
AGRICULTURE
ARRANGEMENT
BASE YEAR
CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO
COAUTHORS
COMMODITIES
COMPETITIVENESS
CONSTANT ELASTICITY
CONSTANT PRICES
CONSTANT RETURNS
CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE
CURRENCY
DATA ELEMENTS
DATA SET
DATA SETS
DESCRIPTION
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
DEVELOPING COUNTRY
DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER
DOMAIN
DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
ECONOMIC POLICY
ECONOMIC REVIEW
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
ECONOMIC STRUCTURES
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
ECONOMIC THEORY
ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
ELASTICITY
ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION
ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
EQUATIONS
EQUILIBRIUM
EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS
EQUILIBRIUM THEORY
EXOGENOUS VARIABLES
EXPECTED VALUE
EXPECTED VALUES
EXPORTS
EXTERNAL SHOCKS
FACTOR COMPONENTS
FEDERAL RESERVE
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
FOREIGN TRADE
FUNCTIONAL FORM
FUTURE RESEARCH
GDP
GDP DEFLATOR
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
GLOBALIZATION
GROWTH EPISODES
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HISTORICAL DATA
INCOMES
INDEXES
INDICES
INDUSTRIALIZATION
INEQUALITY
INFORMATION PROCESSING
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
MACROECONOMICS
MANUFACTURING
MANUSCRIPT
MEAN VALUE
MEASUREMENT ERROR
MODEL ESTIMATION
NATIONAL INCOME
NATIONAL OUTPUT
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
NOTATION
NOTATIONS
OBSERVED CHANGES
OPEN ACCESS
OPEN ECONOMY
OPTIMIZATION
OUTPUTS
POLICY DISCUSSIONS
POLICY FORMULATION
POLICY RESEARCH
PRICE CHANGES
PRICE SERIES
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION
PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
PRODUCTION STRUCTURE
PRODUCTIVITY
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
PROTOTYPE
REGIONAL ACCOUNTS
REGIONAL LEVEL
RELATIVE PRICES
RELIABILITY
RESULT
RESULTS
SAVINGS
SERIES DATA
SMALL ECONOMIES
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
STRUCTURAL CHANGE
TARGETS
TAX
TAX RATES
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
TRADE STRUCTURE
TRANSACTION
USES
VALUE ADDED
VALUE ADDED SERVICES
WEB
WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
Go, Delfin S.
Lofgren, Hans
Mendez Ramos, Fabian
Robinson, Sherman
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
geographic_facet Africa
East Asia and Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa
Korea, Republic of
relation Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7174
description This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the model may have shifted over time to contribute to the generation of historically observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as prior mean values with prior error mass functions. Estimation of the parameters involves using an information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit additional information in the form of new data from a series of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were measured with error. The estimation procedure is "efficient" in the sense that it uses all available information and makes no assumptions about unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa.
format Publications & Research
author Go, Delfin S.
Lofgren, Hans
Mendez Ramos, Fabian
Robinson, Sherman
author_facet Go, Delfin S.
Lofgren, Hans
Mendez Ramos, Fabian
Robinson, Sherman
author_sort Go, Delfin S.
title Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
title_short Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
title_full Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
title_fullStr Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
title_full_unstemmed Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
title_sort estimating parameters and structural change in cge models using a bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach
publisher World Bank Group, Washington, DC
publishDate 2015
url http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391
_version_ 1764448126786076672