Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach
This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting produ...
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391 |
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okr-10986-213912021-04-23T14:04:02Z Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach Go, Delfin S. Lofgren, Hans Mendez Ramos, Fabian Robinson, Sherman ADVANCED COUNTRIES AGRICULTURE ARRANGEMENT BASE YEAR CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO COAUTHORS COMMODITIES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY CONSTANT PRICES CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CURRENCY DATA ELEMENTS DATA SET DATA SETS DESCRIPTION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER DOMAIN DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS EQUILIBRIUM THEORY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR COMPONENTS FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOREIGN TRADE FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH EPISODES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA INCOMES INDEXES INDICES INDUSTRIALIZATION INEQUALITY INFORMATION PROCESSING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMICS MANUFACTURING MANUSCRIPT MEAN VALUE MEASUREMENT ERROR MODEL ESTIMATION NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL OUTPUT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION NOTATIONS OBSERVED CHANGES OPEN ACCESS OPEN ECONOMY OPTIMIZATION OUTPUTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY FORMULATION POLICY RESEARCH PRICE CHANGES PRICE SERIES PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTOTYPE REGIONAL ACCOUNTS REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE PRICES RELIABILITY RESULT RESULTS SAVINGS SERIES DATA SMALL ECONOMIES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE TARGETS TAX TAX RATES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE STRUCTURE TRANSACTION USES VALUE ADDED VALUE ADDED SERVICES WEB WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS This paper uses a three-step Bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other structural parameters in the model may have shifted over time to contribute to the generation of historically observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as prior mean values with prior error mass functions. Estimation of the parameters involves using an information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit additional information in the form of new data from a series of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were measured with error. The estimation procedure is "efficient" in the sense that it uses all available information and makes no assumptions about unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa. 2015-02-03T16:15:27Z 2015-02-03T16:15:27Z 2015-01 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7174 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Group, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Africa East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Korea, Republic of |
repository_type |
Digital Repository |
institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
institution |
Digital Repositories |
building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
collection |
World Bank |
language |
English en_US |
topic |
ADVANCED COUNTRIES AGRICULTURE ARRANGEMENT BASE YEAR CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO COAUTHORS COMMODITIES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY CONSTANT PRICES CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CURRENCY DATA ELEMENTS DATA SET DATA SETS DESCRIPTION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER DOMAIN DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS EQUILIBRIUM THEORY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR COMPONENTS FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOREIGN TRADE FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH EPISODES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA INCOMES INDEXES INDICES INDUSTRIALIZATION INEQUALITY INFORMATION PROCESSING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMICS MANUFACTURING MANUSCRIPT MEAN VALUE MEASUREMENT ERROR MODEL ESTIMATION NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL OUTPUT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION NOTATIONS OBSERVED CHANGES OPEN ACCESS OPEN ECONOMY OPTIMIZATION OUTPUTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY FORMULATION POLICY RESEARCH PRICE CHANGES PRICE SERIES PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTOTYPE REGIONAL ACCOUNTS REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE PRICES RELIABILITY RESULT RESULTS SAVINGS SERIES DATA SMALL ECONOMIES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE TARGETS TAX TAX RATES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE STRUCTURE TRANSACTION USES VALUE ADDED VALUE ADDED SERVICES WEB WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS |
spellingShingle |
ADVANCED COUNTRIES AGRICULTURE ARRANGEMENT BASE YEAR CAPITAL-LABOR RATIO COAUTHORS COMMODITIES COMPETITIVENESS CONSTANT ELASTICITY CONSTANT PRICES CONSTANT RETURNS CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE CURRENCY DATA ELEMENTS DATA SET DATA SETS DESCRIPTION DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DISTRIBUTION PARAMETER DOMAIN DYNAMIC BEHAVIOR ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC REVIEW ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ECONOMIC STRUCTURES ECONOMIC SYSTEMS ECONOMIC THEORY ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES EQUATIONS EQUILIBRIUM EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS EQUILIBRIUM THEORY EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EXPECTED VALUE EXPECTED VALUES EXPORTS EXTERNAL SHOCKS FACTOR COMPONENTS FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FOREIGN TRADE FUNCTIONAL FORM FUTURE RESEARCH GDP GDP DEFLATOR GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL GLOBALIZATION GROWTH EPISODES GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATES HISTORICAL DATA INCOMES INDEXES INDICES INDUSTRIALIZATION INEQUALITY INFORMATION PROCESSING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS MACROECONOMICS MANUFACTURING MANUSCRIPT MEAN VALUE MEASUREMENT ERROR MODEL ESTIMATION NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL OUTPUT NORMAL DISTRIBUTION NOTATION NOTATIONS OBSERVED CHANGES OPEN ACCESS OPEN ECONOMY OPTIMIZATION OUTPUTS POLICY DISCUSSIONS POLICY FORMULATION POLICY RESEARCH PRICE CHANGES PRICE SERIES PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS PRODUCTION STRUCTURE PRODUCTIVITY PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PROTOTYPE REGIONAL ACCOUNTS REGIONAL LEVEL RELATIVE PRICES RELIABILITY RESULT RESULTS SAVINGS SERIES DATA SMALL ECONOMIES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS STRUCTURAL CHANGE TARGETS TAX TAX RATES TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TRADE STRUCTURE TRANSACTION USES VALUE ADDED VALUE ADDED SERVICES WEB WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS Go, Delfin S. Lofgren, Hans Mendez Ramos, Fabian Robinson, Sherman Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
geographic_facet |
Africa East Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Korea, Republic of |
relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7174 |
description |
This paper uses a three-step Bayesian
cross-entropy estimation approach in an environment of noisy
and scarce data to estimate behavioral parameters for a
computable general equilibrium model. The estimation also
measures how labor-augmenting productivity and other
structural parameters in the model may have shifted over
time to contribute to the generation of historically
observed changes in the economic arrangement. In this
approach, the parameters in a computable general equilibrium
model are treated as fixed but unobserved, represented as
prior mean values with prior error mass functions.
Estimation of the parameters involves using an
information-theoretic Bayesian approach to exploit
additional information in the form of new data from a series
of social accounting matrices, which are assumed were
measured with error. The estimation procedure is
"efficient" in the sense that it uses all
available information and makes no assumptions about
unavailable information. As illustration, the methodology is
applied to estimate the parameters of a computable general
equilibrium model using alternative data sets for the
Republic of Korea and Sub-Saharan Africa. |
format |
Publications & Research |
author |
Go, Delfin S. Lofgren, Hans Mendez Ramos, Fabian Robinson, Sherman |
author_facet |
Go, Delfin S. Lofgren, Hans Mendez Ramos, Fabian Robinson, Sherman |
author_sort |
Go, Delfin S. |
title |
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
title_short |
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
title_full |
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
title_fullStr |
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating Parameters and Structural Change in CGE Models Using a Bayesian Cross-Entropy Estimation Approach |
title_sort |
estimating parameters and structural change in cge models using a bayesian cross-entropy estimation approach |
publisher |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23855951/estimating-parameters-structural-change-cge-models-using-bayesian-cross-entropy-estimation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21391 |
_version_ |
1764448126786076672 |