Debiasing on a Roll : Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool against gambling and lottery behavior in South Africa. The study implemented a simple, interactive dice game that simulates worsening winning odds of rolling sixes as more dice are added to...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Publications & Research |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/02/23990597/debiasing-roll-changing-gambling-behavior-through-experiential-learning http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21446 |
| Summary: | This paper tests experiential learning
as a debiasing tool against gambling and lottery behavior in
South Africa. The study implemented a simple, interactive
dice game that simulates worsening winning odds of rolling
sixes as more dice are added to the game. The analysis
exploits two levels of exogenous variation, first from
random assignment into the debiasing game, and second from
the number of rolls it takes to obtain the sixes. Treated
individuals who needed above-median number of rolls to
obtain simultaneous sixes are significantly less likely than
the control group to gamble or play the lottery in the
following year. The converse is true for individuals who
needed below-median number of rolls, suggesting a perverse
treatment effect among this group. The analysis also finds
suggestive evidence that the debiasing affected the
sensitivity to varying winning odds. Changes in
entertainment utility or risk preferences cannot explain
these findings, rather the results are consistent with
changes in risk beliefs. |
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