Analyzing the Dynamics of School Dropout in Upper Secondary Education in Latin America : A Cohort Approach
This study examines trends in school dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes to the existing literature by...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2015
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/03/24205715/analyzing-dynamics-school-dropout-upper-secondary-education-latin-america-cohort-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21671 |
| Summary: | This study examines trends in school
dropout at the upper secondary education level across Latin
America over the past two decades, and attempts to identify
factors influencing these rates. The methodology contributes
to the existing literature by employing repeated cross
sections of data to track the life cycle path of
representative groups of individuals belonging to a birth
cohort, by constructing and analyzing a synthetic data base
of household survey data from 18 countries. A key finding is
that while upper secondary enrollment rates increased in the
region, the proportion of upper secondary age youth dropping
out of school has remained persistently high, despite
relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore,
the study traces the moment in the life cycle at which the
majority of dropout takes place to reveal differences
between countries. Finally, to explain the trends in upper
secondary dropout rates, the study examines the impact of
three groups of factors: (i) shifts in the cohort size and
socioeconomic composition of the population eligible for
entering upper secondary education; (b) the macroeconomic
environment and labor market opportunities; and (c) the
returns to schooling. A series of regressions shows that an
important factor that may be driving higher dropout levels
has been the higher numbers of students from poor
socioeconomic backgrounds reaching the upper secondary
level. In addition, high returns to education have been a
pull factor into the schooling system, while, especially in
countries where the majority of youth dropout early (prior
to upper secondary education), the data confirm an apparent
substitution effect due to the opportunity cost of forgoing
employment opportunities. Overall, the findings confirm the
importance of policy makers' focus on upper secondary
education across Latin America and suggest implications for
focusing the policy agenda. |
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