Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era?
Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
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Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24348746/dawn-new-economic-era http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21781 |
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okr-10986-21781 |
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oai_dc |
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Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
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English en_US |
| topic |
ACCESS TO CAPITAL AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION ASSET POSITIONS BAILOUT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK DEPOSITS BANK LENDING BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTOR STABILITY BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BOND BOND INDEX BOND ISSUANCE BOND ISSUE BONDS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET DEFICIT BUFFERS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL OUTFLOW CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CASH FLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENCY ADJUSTMENT CURRENCY CRISIS CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CYCLICAL FACTORS DEBT PAYMENT DEBT REPAYMENT DEBT SECURITIES DEBT SERVICING DEBT SERVICING COSTS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITS DEPRECIATIONS DEVALUATION DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET BOND EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCES EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FEDERAL BUDGET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL STABILITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN INVESTMENT FREE FLOAT GEOPOLITICAL TENSION GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUE GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HOLDING IMPORT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TARGETING INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS INFLATIONARY PRESSURE INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT FUND INVESTMENT GOODS INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATES LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEVEL PLAYING FIELD LIQUID ASSETS LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MARKET SHARE MARKET VALUE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCE NON-PERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTS OIL MARKET OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SUPPLY OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES OVERDUE LOANS PENSION PENSION FUND PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSES PORTFOLIOS PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC INVESTMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH RECESSION REGULATORY FORBEARANCE RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES REPO REPO FACILITIES RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS SLOWDOWN SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING SPARE CAPACITY STATE GUARANTEES STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKET PRICES STOCKS STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS TAX TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE GROWTH TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHOCK TREASURY TREASURY BONDS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE |
| spellingShingle |
ACCESS TO CAPITAL AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION ASSET POSITIONS BAILOUT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK DEPOSITS BANK LENDING BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTOR STABILITY BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BOND BOND INDEX BOND ISSUANCE BOND ISSUE BONDS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET DEFICIT BUFFERS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL OUTFLOW CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CASH FLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENCY ADJUSTMENT CURRENCY CRISIS CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CYCLICAL FACTORS DEBT PAYMENT DEBT REPAYMENT DEBT SECURITIES DEBT SERVICING DEBT SERVICING COSTS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITS DEPRECIATIONS DEVALUATION DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET BOND EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCES EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FEDERAL BUDGET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL STABILITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN INVESTMENT FREE FLOAT GEOPOLITICAL TENSION GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUE GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HOLDING IMPORT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TARGETING INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS INFLATIONARY PRESSURE INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT FUND INVESTMENT GOODS INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATES LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEVEL PLAYING FIELD LIQUID ASSETS LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MARKET SHARE MARKET VALUE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCE NON-PERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTS OIL MARKET OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SUPPLY OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES OVERDUE LOANS PENSION PENSION FUND PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSES PORTFOLIOS PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC INVESTMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH RECESSION REGULATORY FORBEARANCE RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES REPO REPO FACILITIES RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS SLOWDOWN SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING SPARE CAPACITY STATE GUARANTEES STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKET PRICES STOCKS STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS TAX TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE GROWTH TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHOCK TREASURY TREASURY BONDS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE World Bank Group Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation |
| description |
Russia's economy experienced two
shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began
in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic
challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates
Russia s integration into the world economy through its
natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the
global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between
July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade
shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US
dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer
confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit
expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other,
more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical
tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic
sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that
Russian investments had become riskier, they also
dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for
Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default
swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to
159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions
imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the
access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms
to Western international finance markets, this all but
extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline
outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing
from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016.
Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable
income and consumption will decline. This would be the first
significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999
crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as
disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the
current limited fiscal space, additional support for the
poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it
was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the
bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable,
there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared
prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome
possibility that recent achievements might be reversed. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank Group |
| author_facet |
World Bank Group |
| author_sort |
World Bank Group |
| title |
Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| title_short |
Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| title_full |
Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| title_fullStr |
Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? |
| title_sort |
russian economic report, april 2015 : the dawn of a new economic era? |
| publisher |
Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24348746/dawn-new-economic-era http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21781 |
| _version_ |
1764449240699895808 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-217812021-04-23T14:04:04Z Russian Economic Report, April 2015 : The Dawn of a New Economic Era? World Bank Group ACCESS TO CAPITAL AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION ASSET POSITIONS BAILOUT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK DEPOSITS BANK LENDING BANKING SECTOR BANKING SECTOR STABILITY BANKING SYSTEM BASIS POINTS BOND BOND INDEX BOND ISSUANCE BOND ISSUE BONDS BORROWING COSTS BUDGET DEFICIT BUFFERS CAPITAL ACCOUNT CAPITAL ADEQUACY CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL FORMATION CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL OUTFLOW CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CASH FLOWS CDS CENTRAL BANK CENTRAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES CONSOLIDATION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONSUMER CREDIT CONSUMER DEMAND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CREDIT DEFAULT CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS CREDITORS CURRENCY CURRENCY ADJUSTMENT CURRENCY CRISIS CURRENCY DEPRECIATION CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS CYCLICAL FACTORS DEBT PAYMENT DEBT REPAYMENT DEBT SECURITIES DEBT SERVICING DEBT SERVICING COSTS DEPOSIT DEPOSIT INSURANCE DEPOSITS DEPRECIATIONS DEVALUATION DEVALUATIONS DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DISPOSABLE INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOMES DOMESTIC DEMAND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKET BOND EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ISSUANCE EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS EXPENDITURES EXPORTERS EXTERNAL BORROWING EXTERNAL DEBT EXTERNAL DEMAND EXTERNAL FINANCE EXTERNAL FINANCES EXTERNAL FINANCING EXTERNAL FUNDING EXTERNAL SHOCK EXTERNAL SHOCKS FEDERAL BUDGET FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL STABILITY FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FIXED INVESTMENT FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE REGIME FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN INVESTMENT FREE FLOAT GEOPOLITICAL TENSION GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL TRADE GOVERNMENT BUDGET GOVERNMENT POLICY GOVERNMENT REVENUE GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH INFLATION HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HOLDING IMPORT IMPORT DEMAND IMPORTS INCOME GROWTH INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATION RATE INFLATION TARGETING INFLATIONARY EXPECTATIONS INFLATIONARY PRESSURE INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BOND INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL RESERVES INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVESTING INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES INVESTMENT DEMAND INVESTMENT FUND INVESTMENT GOODS INVESTMENT INCOME INVESTMENT PROJECTS INVESTMENT RATES LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LEVEL PLAYING FIELD LIQUID ASSETS LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MARKET SHARE MARKET VALUE MONETARY FUND MONETARY POLICY MONEY SUPPLY MORTGAGE MORTGAGE LOANS NATURAL RESOURCE NON-PERFORMING LOAN NONPERFORMING LOANS NPL OIL DEMAND OIL EXPORTERS OIL EXPORTS OIL MARKET OIL PRICE OIL PRICES OIL SUPPLY OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES OVERDUE LOANS PENSION PENSION FUND PENSIONS POLICY RESPONSES PORTFOLIOS PRIVATE BANKS PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTORS PROFIT MARGINS PUBLIC INVESTMENT PURCHASING POWER PURCHASING POWER PARITY REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE REAL WAGE GROWTH RECESSION REGULATORY FORBEARANCE RELATIVE PRICES REMITTANCE REMITTANCES REPO REPO FACILITIES RESERVE RESERVE FUND RESERVES RETURN RETURN ON ASSETS SLOWDOWN SOVEREIGN DEBT SOVEREIGN RATING SPARE CAPACITY STATE GUARANTEES STOCK MARKET STOCK MARKET PRICES STOCKS STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS STRUCTURAL RIGIDITIES SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS TAX TOTAL DEBT TRADE BALANCE TRADE DEFICIT TRADE GROWTH TRADE RESTRICTIONS TRADE SHOCK TREASURY TREASURY BONDS UNCERTAINTY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WORLD ECONOMY WORLD TRADE Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed. 2015-04-24T20:39:10Z 2015-04-24T20:39:10Z 2015-04 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24348746/dawn-new-economic-era http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21781 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Economic Updates and Modeling Europe and Central Asia Russian Federation |