Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model
Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24677885/low-oil-prices-long-term-economic-effects-eu-other-global-regions-based-computable-general-equilibrium-place-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22398 |
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okr-10986-22398 |
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oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
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Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
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World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
NATURAL GAS OUTPUT MONETARY POLICY CANE SUBSTITUTION OIL PRICE ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY SCENARIO ANIMAL PRODUCTS REFINED PRODUCTS RELATIVE PRICE FOSSIL FUELS SUPPLY CURVE ESP INCOME EMISSION CONSTRAINTS VEHICLES ACTIVITIES GENERATION OIL SUPPLY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EMISSIONS HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRICES REVENUES GAS PRICE COAL PRICES MODELS GAS PRICE OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION MARGINAL ABATEMENT CARBON TECHNOLOGIES SUPPLY SIDE EMISSIONS ABATEMENT STEAM COAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BIOMASS OILS PETROLEUM OIL PRICES EMISSIONS FROM COAL SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL DEMAND NATURAL GAS PRICES IMPORT PRICES COAL USE SCENARIOS OIL PRICES OF COAL CLIMATE POLICIES ENERGY MIX ENERGY SOURCES REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRODUCTION OIL PRODUCTS WATER FUEL SUBSTITUTION MARKETS OIL IMPORTS SUGAR CANE IMPORTS RELATIVE PRICES DRILLING ACTIVITY GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL CAPS ENERGY POLICY FUELS REAL ESTATE FINANCE CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON CAP EMISSION CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT GAS EXTRACTION HEAT POLICIES CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BALANCE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LOWER COSTS FINANCIAL CRISIS VALUE POWER ELECTRICITY CEMENT PRICE OF OIL OIL DRILLING OIL PRICE SCENARIO EMISSION TARGETS CLIMATE DEMAND ABATEMENT FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS CARBON PRICE FOSSIL FUEL TAX RATES OIL PRODUCERS FUEL PRICES GAS OUTPUT ENERGY USE NET OIL MARKET ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE END-USER PRICE ABATEMENT COSTS POLICY FUEL EXTRACTION INSURANCE ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY OUTLOOK NATURAL GAS SHADOW PRICE CARBON PRICES COMBUSTION OIL EXPORTERS GASEOUS FUELS LOWER PRICES FOSSIL FUEL PRICES DOMINANT FUEL ENERGY GOODS COAL FINANCIAL MARKETS ALLOCATION SUPPLY CRUDE OIL FUEL OIL SHOCKS DRILLING PRICES OF ENERGY COMMODITY MARKETS AVAILABILITY LABOR SUPPLY CLIMATE POLICY OUTPUT DECLINES EXCHANGE RATE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS CARBON TAX GASES POLICY ANALYSIS OIL USE HEAT GENERATION FOSSIL EMISSION PRICING PRICES APPROACH F- GASES OIL SECTOR GAS DISTRIBUTION BENEFITS ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ENERGY |
| spellingShingle |
NATURAL GAS OUTPUT MONETARY POLICY CANE SUBSTITUTION OIL PRICE ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY SCENARIO ANIMAL PRODUCTS REFINED PRODUCTS RELATIVE PRICE FOSSIL FUELS SUPPLY CURVE ESP INCOME EMISSION CONSTRAINTS VEHICLES ACTIVITIES GENERATION OIL SUPPLY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EMISSIONS HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRICES REVENUES GAS PRICE COAL PRICES MODELS GAS PRICE OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION MARGINAL ABATEMENT CARBON TECHNOLOGIES SUPPLY SIDE EMISSIONS ABATEMENT STEAM COAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BIOMASS OILS PETROLEUM OIL PRICES EMISSIONS FROM COAL SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL DEMAND NATURAL GAS PRICES IMPORT PRICES COAL USE SCENARIOS OIL PRICES OF COAL CLIMATE POLICIES ENERGY MIX ENERGY SOURCES REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRODUCTION OIL PRODUCTS WATER FUEL SUBSTITUTION MARKETS OIL IMPORTS SUGAR CANE IMPORTS RELATIVE PRICES DRILLING ACTIVITY GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL CAPS ENERGY POLICY FUELS REAL ESTATE FINANCE CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON CAP EMISSION CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT GAS EXTRACTION HEAT POLICIES CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BALANCE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LOWER COSTS FINANCIAL CRISIS VALUE POWER ELECTRICITY CEMENT PRICE OF OIL OIL DRILLING OIL PRICE SCENARIO EMISSION TARGETS CLIMATE DEMAND ABATEMENT FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS CARBON PRICE FOSSIL FUEL TAX RATES OIL PRODUCERS FUEL PRICES GAS OUTPUT ENERGY USE NET OIL MARKET ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE END-USER PRICE ABATEMENT COSTS POLICY FUEL EXTRACTION INSURANCE ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY OUTLOOK NATURAL GAS SHADOW PRICE CARBON PRICES COMBUSTION OIL EXPORTERS GASEOUS FUELS LOWER PRICES FOSSIL FUEL PRICES DOMINANT FUEL ENERGY GOODS COAL FINANCIAL MARKETS ALLOCATION SUPPLY CRUDE OIL FUEL OIL SHOCKS DRILLING PRICES OF ENERGY COMMODITY MARKETS AVAILABILITY LABOR SUPPLY CLIMATE POLICY OUTPUT DECLINES EXCHANGE RATE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS CARBON TAX GASES POLICY ANALYSIS OIL USE HEAT GENERATION FOSSIL EMISSION PRICING PRICES APPROACH F- GASES OIL SECTOR GAS DISTRIBUTION BENEFITS ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ENERGY Boratynski, Jakub Kasek, Leszek Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| relation |
MFM Global Practice discussion paper,no. 3; |
| description |
Oil prices on global markets have
plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in
mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while
other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of
recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60
percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against
the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly
offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies
other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil
price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE,
maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA).
The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are
assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on
the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy
outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in
2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices)
and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and
natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that,
first, oil exporters will suffer substantial double-digit
welfare losses through 2020 due to significant deterioration
in their terms of trade. Second, the European Union (EU), as
a large oil importer, will benefit significantly from lower
oil prices, with the new member states being relatively
better off, as a consequence of their relatively high energy
intensity. Third, if the assumed permanent oil price shock
occurs at half the level of the headline 60 percent scenario
(proxying for U.S. dollar appreciation or reflecting a
rebound in oil prices from their early 2015 levels through
2020), welfare effects will be smaller and less than
proportional for most countries. Finally, in the EU, the
existing emissions cap constrain the use of cheaper fossil
fuels and limits the welfare increase by about 0.5
percentage points. The interpretation of results from the
CGE model has been supported by regression, attributing the
diversity of the simulated welfare effects by region to
certain characteristics of regional economies, such as
refined oil products-to- gross domestic product (GDP) and
net exports of crude oil-to-GDP ratios. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Boratynski, Jakub Kasek, Leszek |
| author_facet |
Boratynski, Jakub Kasek, Leszek |
| author_sort |
Boratynski, Jakub |
| title |
Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| title_short |
Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| title_full |
Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| title_fullStr |
Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model |
| title_sort |
low oil prices : long-term economic effects for the eu and other global regions based on the computable general equilibrium place model |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24677885/low-oil-prices-long-term-economic-effects-eu-other-global-regions-based-computable-general-equilibrium-place-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22398 |
| _version_ |
1764450889140011008 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-223982021-04-23T14:04:08Z Low Oil Prices : Long-Term Economic Effects for the EU and Other Global Regions Based on the Computable General Equilibrium PLACE Model Boratynski, Jakub Kasek, Leszek NATURAL GAS OUTPUT MONETARY POLICY CANE SUBSTITUTION OIL PRICE ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY SCENARIO ANIMAL PRODUCTS REFINED PRODUCTS RELATIVE PRICE FOSSIL FUELS SUPPLY CURVE ESP INCOME EMISSION CONSTRAINTS VEHICLES ACTIVITIES GENERATION OIL SUPPLY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS EMISSIONS HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRICES REVENUES GAS PRICE COAL PRICES MODELS GAS PRICE OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION MARGINAL ABATEMENT CARBON TECHNOLOGIES SUPPLY SIDE EMISSIONS ABATEMENT STEAM COAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BIOMASS OILS PETROLEUM OIL PRICES EMISSIONS FROM COAL SUPPLY OF CRUDE OIL DEMAND NATURAL GAS PRICES IMPORT PRICES COAL USE SCENARIOS OIL PRICES OF COAL CLIMATE POLICIES ENERGY MIX ENERGY SOURCES REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS ENERGY INTENSITY GAS PRODUCTION OIL PRODUCTS WATER FUEL SUBSTITUTION MARKETS OIL IMPORTS SUGAR CANE IMPORTS RELATIVE PRICES DRILLING ACTIVITY GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL CAPS ENERGY POLICY FUELS REAL ESTATE FINANCE CARBON EMISSIONS CARBON CAP EMISSION CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT GAS EXTRACTION HEAT POLICIES CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BALANCE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY LOWER COSTS FINANCIAL CRISIS VALUE POWER ELECTRICITY CEMENT PRICE OF OIL OIL DRILLING OIL PRICE SCENARIO EMISSION TARGETS CLIMATE DEMAND ABATEMENT FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTS CARBON PRICE FOSSIL FUEL TAX RATES OIL PRODUCERS FUEL PRICES GAS OUTPUT ENERGY USE NET OIL MARKET ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE END-USER PRICE ABATEMENT COSTS POLICY FUEL EXTRACTION INSURANCE ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY OUTLOOK NATURAL GAS SHADOW PRICE CARBON PRICES COMBUSTION OIL EXPORTERS GASEOUS FUELS LOWER PRICES FOSSIL FUEL PRICES DOMINANT FUEL ENERGY GOODS COAL FINANCIAL MARKETS ALLOCATION SUPPLY CRUDE OIL FUEL OIL SHOCKS DRILLING PRICES OF ENERGY COMMODITY MARKETS AVAILABILITY LABOR SUPPLY CLIMATE POLICY OUTPUT DECLINES EXCHANGE RATE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS CARBON TAX GASES POLICY ANALYSIS OIL USE HEAT GENERATION FOSSIL EMISSION PRICING PRICES APPROACH F- GASES OIL SECTOR GAS DISTRIBUTION BENEFITS ECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT ENERGY Oil prices on global markets have plunged from United States (U.S.) $115 per barrel in mid-June of 2014 to U.S. $48 at end-January 2015, while other fuel prices have continued the slow downward trend of recent years. The rapid decline in oil prices by about 60 percent was accompanied by U.S. dollar appreciation against the major global currencies (except the Swiss franc), partly offsetting the oil price decline measured in currencies other than the dollar. The impact assessment of the oil price shock was conducted using a multi-county, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, PLACE, maintained by the Center for Climate Policy Analysis (CCPA). The effects of a permanent 60 percent oil price shock are assessed against a baseline scenario through 2020 based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) 2012 world energy outlook assuming a high oil price scenario of U.S. $118 in 2015 and U.S. $128 in 2020 (both in 2010 constant prices) and correlated price changes of coal (by 50 percent), and natural gas (by 30 percent). Model simulations show that, first, oil exporters will suffer substantial double-digit welfare losses through 2020 due to significant deterioration in their terms of trade. Second, the European Union (EU), as a large oil importer, will benefit significantly from lower oil prices, with the new member states being relatively better off, as a consequence of their relatively high energy intensity. Third, if the assumed permanent oil price shock occurs at half the level of the headline 60 percent scenario (proxying for U.S. dollar appreciation or reflecting a rebound in oil prices from their early 2015 levels through 2020), welfare effects will be smaller and less than proportional for most countries. Finally, in the EU, the existing emissions cap constrain the use of cheaper fossil fuels and limits the welfare increase by about 0.5 percentage points. The interpretation of results from the CGE model has been supported by regression, attributing the diversity of the simulated welfare effects by region to certain characteristics of regional economies, such as refined oil products-to- gross domestic product (GDP) and net exports of crude oil-to-GDP ratios. 2015-08-13T19:10:36Z 2015-08-13T19:10:36Z 2015-03 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24677885/low-oil-prices-long-term-economic-effects-eu-other-global-regions-based-computable-general-equilibrium-place-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22398 English en_US MFM Global Practice discussion paper,no. 3; CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Working Paper |