Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis

This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of pos...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Merotto, Dino, Hayati, Fayavar, Stephan, David, Bataille, William
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES DEFICIT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING EXCHANGE RATE CRISES NET LENDING DEBT‐RELIEF AGGREGATE SPENDING EXPENDITURE LEVELS HEALTH EXPENDITURES PUBLIC SECTOR MONEY SUPPLY FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROGRAMS DEBT MANAGEMENT LIQUIDITY SERVICES PUBLIC SERVICES REVENUES PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS FISCAL POLICY EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FISCAL EXPENDITURES ECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS PUBLIC BUDGETS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES FISCAL ANALYSIS SOCIAL BENEFITS TRANSFERS BETWEEN LEVELS SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INFLATION EARLY WARNING INDICATOR MUNICIPALITIES BUDGET BILL COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC SPENDING BUDGET PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS CENTRAL BANK MACROECONOMIC STABILITY TOTAL EXPENDITURE FISCAL RULES ADMINISTRATIVE CLASSIFICATION BUDGET SYSTEMS EXTERNAL LOANS AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FISCAL RIGIDITIES SOCIAL INSURANCE AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS DEBT OPERATING EXPENSES FINANCIAL CRISES REVENUE GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE CAPITAL TRANSFERS EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL RELATIONS TAX BREAKS GROWTH OF EXPENDITURES STRUCTURAL REFORMS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL EQUITY CAPITAL EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE ITEM TAX REVENUES SERVICE DELIVERY DEBT SERVICE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS EXPENDITURE DATA EDUCATION SPENDING TAXES NATIONAL STATISTICS ENTITLEMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT EXPENDITURE MEDIUM-TERM PLAN NATIONAL SECURITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURE PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS INTEREST PAYMENTS BASELINE ESTIMATES GOVERNMENT BUDGET BUDGET EXPENDITURE FISCAL FRAMEWORK PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MARKET FAILURES FINANCIAL CRISIS FISCAL ECONOMISTS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT FINANCE MERIT GOOD BUDGETS PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC BUDGET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE OUTPUT MEASURES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE EXPENDITURES TAX EXPENDITURE PRIVATE SECTOR REAL EXCHANGE RATE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION INTERNAL LOANS FISCAL PROBLEMS PUBLIC DEBT DISCRETIONARY FISCAL STIMULUS MONETARY TERMS TAX REVENUE CAPITAL SPENDING FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY CAPITAL GRANTS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT GOVERNMENT DEBT CIVIL DEFENSE FISCAL PRESSURES CLASSIFICATION OF EXPENDITURES GROWTH RATE NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL REFORMS TOTAL SPENDING MINISTRY OF FINANCE FISCAL MANAGEMENT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS FINANCIAL ASSETS TOTAL EXPENDITURES FISCAL BALANCE TAX POLICY CHANGE IN REVENUE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PENSION FUND EXCHANGE RATE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEBT SERVICING EXPENDITURE GROWTH PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PUBLIC SPENDING ROAD TRANSPORT OUTCOMES COMMODITY PRICES FINANCIAL SECTOR CIVIL SERVICE DISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY HEALTH SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS OPERATING EXPENDITURES
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22853

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Summary:	This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of possible impending fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and those that may require reforms. The main utility of the expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This could allow global monitoring comparisons and global research into the drivers of public spending force across particular types of country characteristics and economic conditions. In time, and as more data become available, researchers can use the force measure to compare and contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries. For example the measure can be used to explore what gives some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying factors cause different public spending categories to grow faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what successful countries have done to manage rising force without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that “speed limits” for spending might be a feasible component of fiscal rules.

Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis

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