Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis
This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of pos...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22853 |
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okr-10986-22853 |
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| recordtype |
oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES DEFICIT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING EXCHANGE RATE CRISES NET LENDING DEBT‐RELIEF AGGREGATE SPENDING EXPENDITURE LEVELS HEALTH EXPENDITURES PUBLIC SECTOR MONEY SUPPLY FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROGRAMS DEBT MANAGEMENT LIQUIDITY SERVICES PUBLIC SERVICES REVENUES PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS FISCAL POLICY EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FISCAL EXPENDITURES ECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS PUBLIC BUDGETS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES FISCAL ANALYSIS SOCIAL BENEFITS TRANSFERS BETWEEN LEVELS SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INFLATION EARLY WARNING INDICATOR MUNICIPALITIES BUDGET BILL COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC SPENDING BUDGET PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS CENTRAL BANK MACROECONOMIC STABILITY TOTAL EXPENDITURE FISCAL RULES ADMINISTRATIVE CLASSIFICATION BUDGET SYSTEMS EXTERNAL LOANS AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FISCAL RIGIDITIES SOCIAL INSURANCE AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS DEBT OPERATING EXPENSES FINANCIAL CRISES REVENUE GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE CAPITAL TRANSFERS EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL RELATIONS TAX BREAKS GROWTH OF EXPENDITURES STRUCTURAL REFORMS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL EQUITY CAPITAL EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE ITEM TAX REVENUES SERVICE DELIVERY DEBT SERVICE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS EXPENDITURE DATA EDUCATION SPENDING TAXES NATIONAL STATISTICS ENTITLEMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT EXPENDITURE MEDIUM-TERM PLAN NATIONAL SECURITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURE PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS INTEREST PAYMENTS BASELINE ESTIMATES GOVERNMENT BUDGET BUDGET EXPENDITURE FISCAL FRAMEWORK PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MARKET FAILURES FINANCIAL CRISIS FISCAL ECONOMISTS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT FINANCE MERIT GOOD BUDGETS PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC BUDGET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE OUTPUT MEASURES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE EXPENDITURES TAX EXPENDITURE PRIVATE SECTOR REAL EXCHANGE RATE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION INTERNAL LOANS FISCAL PROBLEMS PUBLIC DEBT DISCRETIONARY FISCAL STIMULUS MONETARY TERMS TAX REVENUE CAPITAL SPENDING FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY CAPITAL GRANTS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT GOVERNMENT DEBT CIVIL DEFENSE FISCAL PRESSURES CLASSIFICATION OF EXPENDITURES GROWTH RATE NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL REFORMS TOTAL SPENDING MINISTRY OF FINANCE FISCAL MANAGEMENT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS FINANCIAL ASSETS TOTAL EXPENDITURES FISCAL BALANCE TAX POLICY CHANGE IN REVENUE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PENSION FUND EXCHANGE RATE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEBT SERVICING EXPENDITURE GROWTH PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PUBLIC SPENDING ROAD TRANSPORT OUTCOMES COMMODITY PRICES FINANCIAL SECTOR CIVIL SERVICE DISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY HEALTH SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS OPERATING EXPENDITURES |
| spellingShingle |
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES DEFICIT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING EXCHANGE RATE CRISES NET LENDING DEBT‐RELIEF AGGREGATE SPENDING EXPENDITURE LEVELS HEALTH EXPENDITURES PUBLIC SECTOR MONEY SUPPLY FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROGRAMS DEBT MANAGEMENT LIQUIDITY SERVICES PUBLIC SERVICES REVENUES PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS FISCAL POLICY EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FISCAL EXPENDITURES ECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS PUBLIC BUDGETS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES FISCAL ANALYSIS SOCIAL BENEFITS TRANSFERS BETWEEN LEVELS SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INFLATION EARLY WARNING INDICATOR MUNICIPALITIES BUDGET BILL COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC SPENDING BUDGET PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS CENTRAL BANK MACROECONOMIC STABILITY TOTAL EXPENDITURE FISCAL RULES ADMINISTRATIVE CLASSIFICATION BUDGET SYSTEMS EXTERNAL LOANS AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FISCAL RIGIDITIES SOCIAL INSURANCE AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS DEBT OPERATING EXPENSES FINANCIAL CRISES REVENUE GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE CAPITAL TRANSFERS EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL RELATIONS TAX BREAKS GROWTH OF EXPENDITURES STRUCTURAL REFORMS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL EQUITY CAPITAL EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE ITEM TAX REVENUES SERVICE DELIVERY DEBT SERVICE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS EXPENDITURE DATA EDUCATION SPENDING TAXES NATIONAL STATISTICS ENTITLEMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT EXPENDITURE MEDIUM-TERM PLAN NATIONAL SECURITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURE PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS INTEREST PAYMENTS BASELINE ESTIMATES GOVERNMENT BUDGET BUDGET EXPENDITURE FISCAL FRAMEWORK PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MARKET FAILURES FINANCIAL CRISIS FISCAL ECONOMISTS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT FINANCE MERIT GOOD BUDGETS PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC BUDGET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE OUTPUT MEASURES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE EXPENDITURES TAX EXPENDITURE PRIVATE SECTOR REAL EXCHANGE RATE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION INTERNAL LOANS FISCAL PROBLEMS PUBLIC DEBT DISCRETIONARY FISCAL STIMULUS MONETARY TERMS TAX REVENUE CAPITAL SPENDING FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY CAPITAL GRANTS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT GOVERNMENT DEBT CIVIL DEFENSE FISCAL PRESSURES CLASSIFICATION OF EXPENDITURES GROWTH RATE NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL REFORMS TOTAL SPENDING MINISTRY OF FINANCE FISCAL MANAGEMENT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS FINANCIAL ASSETS TOTAL EXPENDITURES FISCAL BALANCE TAX POLICY CHANGE IN REVENUE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PENSION FUND EXCHANGE RATE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEBT SERVICING EXPENDITURE GROWTH PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PUBLIC SPENDING ROAD TRANSPORT OUTCOMES COMMODITY PRICES FINANCIAL SECTOR CIVIL SERVICE DISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY HEALTH SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS OPERATING EXPENDITURES Merotto, Dino Hayati, Fayavar Stephan, David Bataille, William Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Moldova |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7431 |
| description |
This paper proposes a new measure of
public expenditure force that policy makers and budget
analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal
monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure
will not only warn policy makers of possible impending
fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate
between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and
those that may require reforms. The main utility of the
expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal
analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows
practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of
public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding
spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before
these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its
construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and
independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This
could allow global monitoring comparisons and global
research into the drivers of public spending force across
particular types of country characteristics and economic
conditions. In time, and as more data become available,
researchers can use the force measure to compare and
contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries.
For example the measure can be used to explore what gives
some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying
factors cause different public spending categories to grow
faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what
successful countries have done to manage rising force
without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a
decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that
“speed limits” for spending might be a feasible component of
fiscal rules. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Merotto, Dino Hayati, Fayavar Stephan, David Bataille, William |
| author_facet |
Merotto, Dino Hayati, Fayavar Stephan, David Bataille, William |
| author_sort |
Merotto, Dino |
| title |
Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| title_short |
Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| title_full |
Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis |
| title_sort |
dismal science, accounting and newton’s second law : identifying force and rigidity in public expenditure analysis |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22853 |
| _version_ |
1764452235694047232 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-228532021-06-14T10:20:32Z Dismal Science, Accounting and Newton’s Second Law : Identifying Force and Rigidity in Public Expenditure Analysis Merotto, Dino Hayati, Fayavar Stephan, David Bataille, William EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS CONTINGENT LIABILITIES DEFICIT GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS ECONOMIC GROWTH ACCOUNTING EXCHANGE RATE CRISES NET LENDING DEBT‐RELIEF AGGREGATE SPENDING EXPENDITURE LEVELS HEALTH EXPENDITURES PUBLIC SECTOR MONEY SUPPLY FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING PROGRAMS DEBT MANAGEMENT LIQUIDITY SERVICES PUBLIC SERVICES REVENUES PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS FISCAL POLICY EDUCATION EXPENDITURES FISCAL EXPENDITURES ECONOMIC POLICY MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS PUBLIC BUDGETS INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES FISCAL ANALYSIS SOCIAL BENEFITS TRANSFERS BETWEEN LEVELS SOCIAL ASSISTANCE INFLATION EARLY WARNING INDICATOR MUNICIPALITIES BUDGET BILL COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC SPENDING BUDGET PUBLIC SPENDING TRENDS CENTRAL BANK MACROECONOMIC STABILITY TOTAL EXPENDITURE FISCAL RULES ADMINISTRATIVE CLASSIFICATION BUDGET SYSTEMS EXTERNAL LOANS AGGREGATE EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT FINANCE STATISTICS EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FISCAL RIGIDITIES SOCIAL INSURANCE AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS EXPENDITURE ANALYSIS DEBT OPERATING EXPENSES FINANCIAL CRISES REVENUE GROWTH PUBLIC FINANCE CAPITAL TRANSFERS EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL RELATIONS TAX BREAKS GROWTH OF EXPENDITURES STRUCTURAL REFORMS SOCIAL SECURITY SOCIAL EQUITY CAPITAL EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE ITEM TAX REVENUES SERVICE DELIVERY DEBT SERVICE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS EXPENDITURE DATA EDUCATION SPENDING TAXES NATIONAL STATISTICS ENTITLEMENTS FISCAL DEFICIT EXPENDITURE MEDIUM-TERM PLAN NATIONAL SECURITY DISTRIBUTION OF EXPENDITURE PUBLIC ORGANIZATIONS INTEREST PAYMENTS BASELINE ESTIMATES GOVERNMENT BUDGET BUDGET EXPENDITURE FISCAL FRAMEWORK PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MARKET FAILURES FINANCIAL CRISIS FISCAL ECONOMISTS CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GROWTH GOVERNMENT FINANCE MERIT GOOD BUDGETS PUBLIC ENTERPRISES PUBLIC BUDGET GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE OUTPUT MEASURES PUBLIC EXPENDITURES GOVERNMENT REVENUE EXPENDITURES TAX EXPENDITURE PRIVATE SECTOR REAL EXCHANGE RATE FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION INTERNAL LOANS FISCAL PROBLEMS PUBLIC DEBT DISCRETIONARY FISCAL STIMULUS MONETARY TERMS TAX REVENUE CAPITAL SPENDING FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY CAPITAL GRANTS FISCAL ADJUSTMENT GOVERNMENT DEBT CIVIL DEFENSE FISCAL PRESSURES CLASSIFICATION OF EXPENDITURES GROWTH RATE NATIONAL STATISTICS OFFICE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT FISCAL REFORMS TOTAL SPENDING MINISTRY OF FINANCE FISCAL MANAGEMENT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS FINANCIAL ASSETS TOTAL EXPENDITURES FISCAL BALANCE TAX POLICY CHANGE IN REVENUE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PENSION FUND EXCHANGE RATE DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEBT SERVICING EXPENDITURE GROWTH PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH PUBLIC SPENDING ROAD TRANSPORT OUTCOMES COMMODITY PRICES FINANCIAL SECTOR CIVIL SERVICE DISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY HEALTH SERVICES EXPENDITURE PROGRAMS OPERATING EXPENDITURES This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of possible impending fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and those that may require reforms. The main utility of the expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This could allow global monitoring comparisons and global research into the drivers of public spending force across particular types of country characteristics and economic conditions. In time, and as more data become available, researchers can use the force measure to compare and contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries. For example the measure can be used to explore what gives some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying factors cause different public spending categories to grow faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what successful countries have done to manage rising force without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that “speed limits” for spending might be a feasible component of fiscal rules. 2015-11-04T22:55:54Z 2015-11-04T22:55:54Z 2015-10 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25107995/dismal-science-accounting-newton’s-second-law-identifying-force-rigidity-public-expenditure-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22853 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7431 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research Europe and Central Asia Moldova |