Robust Decision-Making in the Water Sector : A Strategy for Implementing Lima’s Long-Term Water Resources Master Plan
How can water resource agencies make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability when the future is fraught with deep climate and economic uncertainty? This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer this questio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25153429/robust-decision-making-water-sector-strategy-implementing-lima’s-long-term-water-resources-master-plan http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22861 |
| Summary: | How can water resource agencies make
smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability when
the future is fraught with deep climate and economic
uncertainty? This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility
serving Lima, Peru, answer this question by drawing on state
of the art methods for decision making under deep
uncertainty. These methods provide techniques for evaluating
the performance of a water system over a wide range of
plausible futures and then developing strategies that are
robust across these futures. Rather than weighting futures
probabilistically to define an optimal strategy, these
methodologies identify the vulnerabilities of a system and
then evaluate the key trade-offs among different adaptive
strategies. Through extensive iteration and collaboration
with SEDAPAL, the study used these methods to define an
investment strategy that is robust, ensuring water
reliability across as wide a range of future conditions as
possible while also being economically efficient. First,on
completion, the study helped SEDAPAL realize that not all
projects included in the Master Plan were necessary to
achieve water reliability, and the utility could save 25
percent (more than $600 million) in investment costs.
Second, the study helped focus future efforts on demand-side
management, pricing, and soft infrastructure, a refocusing
that is difficult to achieve in traditional utility
companies. Third, the study helped SEDAPAL gain the support
of regulatory and budget agencies through the careful
analysis of alternatives. Fourth, the study allowed the
utility to postpone lower priority investments, and to
analyze future options based on climate and demand
information that simply is not available now. |
|---|