Kyrgyz Republic Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2015 : Resilience Amid Turbulence
GDP grew at a rate of 6.8 percent, year-on-year (y/y), between January and August, boosted by frontloaded gold production and a strong performance of the agricultural sector. Gold output grew by 46 percent (y/y), while the non-gold GDP growth rate...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25256017/kyrgyz-republic-biannual-economic-update-resilience-amid-turbulence-special-focus-meeting-jobs-challenge http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22951 |
| Summary: | GDP grew at a rate of 6.8 percent,
year-on-year (y/y), between January and August, boosted by
frontloaded gold production and a strong performance of the
agricultural sector. Gold output grew by 46 percent (y/y),
while the non-gold GDP growth rate reached 4.5 percent, up
0.9 percentage points from the same period in the previous
year. However, gold production is projected to decelerate
markedly during the remainder of 2015, while increasingly
adverse external conditions and exchange-rate developments
are expected to depress domestic consumption and private
investment, as well as foreign demand. As a result, the
overall growth rate for 2015 is projected to slow to 2
percent. As of August the headline inflation rate had fallen
to 5.8 percent (y/y) from 10.5 percent at end-2014, but the
combined effect of higher public spending and exchange-rate
pressures are expected to drive up prices during the final
months of the year, underscoring the importance of
maintaining a tight monetary stance. Looking beyond 2015,
the Kyrgyz economy is projected to recover over the medium
term, and public finances are expected to stabilize, but
this generally positive outlook is subject to significant
downside risks. In the baseline scenario, growth is
projected to accelerate to 4.2 percent in 2016, driven by
higher gold production and an expected acceleration in
regional economic activity. Growth in the non-gold sectors
should be relatively robust at around 3.7 percent, but a
slower-than-anticipated recovery in Russia and Kazakhstan
could threaten this projection. Moreover, slower growth in
both the domestic and regional economies could complicate
the process of fiscal consolidation. |
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