Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An adva...

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Main Authors:	Droogers, P., Immerzeel, W. W., Terink, W., Hoogeveen, J., Bierkens, M. F. P., van Beek, L. P. H., Debele, B.
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	en_US
Published:	European Geosciences Union 2015
Subjects:	hydrological model streams reservoirs groundwater irrigation water demand climate change
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23175

id	okr-10986-23175
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-231752021-04-23T14:04:13Z Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050 Droogers, P. Immerzeel, W. W. Terink, W. Hoogeveen, J. Bierkens, M. F. P. van Beek, L. P. H. Debele, B. hydrological model streams reservoirs groundwater irrigation water demand climate change Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km3 yr−1. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 yr−1 to 283 km3 yr−1~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors. 2015-12-01T20:24:29Z 2015-12-01T20:24:29Z 2012-09-03 Journal Article Hydrology and Earth System Sciences http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23175 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank European Geosciences Union Publications & Research :: Journal Article Publications & Research Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	en_US
topic	hydrological model streams reservoirs groundwater irrigation water demand climate change
spellingShingle	hydrological model streams reservoirs groundwater irrigation water demand climate change Droogers, P. Immerzeel, W. W. Terink, W. Hoogeveen, J. Bierkens, M. F. P. van Beek, L. P. H. Debele, B. Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
description	Changes in water resources availability can be expected as consequences of climate change, population growth, economic development and environmental considerations. A two-stage modeling approach is used to explore the impact of these changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. An advanced, physically based, distributed, hydrological model is applied to determine the internal and external renewable water resources for the current situation and under future changes. Subsequently, a water allocation model is used to combine the renewable water resources with sectoral water demands. Results show that total demand in the region will increase to 393 km3 yr−1 in 2050, while total water shortage will grow to 199 km3 yr−1 in 2050 for the average climate change projection, an increase of 157 km3 yr−1. This increase in shortage is the combined impact of an increase in water demand by 50% with a decrease in water supply by 12%. Uncertainty, based on the output of the nine GCMs applied, reveals that expected water shortage ranges from 85 km3 yr−1 to 283 km3 yr−1~in 2050. The analysis shows that 22% of the water shortage can be attributed to climate change and 78% to changes in socio-economic factors.
format	Journal Article
author	Droogers, P. Immerzeel, W. W. Terink, W. Hoogeveen, J. Bierkens, M. F. P. van Beek, L. P. H. Debele, B.
author_facet	Droogers, P. Immerzeel, W. W. Terink, W. Hoogeveen, J. Bierkens, M. F. P. van Beek, L. P. H. Debele, B.
author_sort	Droogers, P.
title	Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_short	Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_full	Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_fullStr	Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_full_unstemmed	Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050
title_sort	water resources trends in middle east and north africa towards 2050
publisher	European Geosciences Union
publishDate	2015
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23175
_version_	1764453115605549056

Water Resources Trends in Middle East and North Africa towards 2050

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