Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries

The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure...

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Main Authors:	Strzepek, Kenneth, Jacobsen, Michael, Boehlert, Brent, Neumann, James
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	en_US
Published:	IOP Publishing 2015
Subjects:	hydrological indicators water resources management climate change climate projections
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23180

id	okr-10986-23180
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-231802021-04-23T14:04:13Z Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries Strzepek, Kenneth Jacobsen, Michael Boehlert, Brent Neumann, James hydrological indicators water resources management climate change climate projections The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply 'windfalls' that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit. 2015-12-01T22:02:22Z 2015-12-01T22:02:22Z 2013-10-23 Journal Article Environmental Research Letters http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23180 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo IOP Publishing IOP Publishing Publications & Research :: Journal Article Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	en_US
topic	hydrological indicators water resources management climate change climate projections
spellingShingle	hydrological indicators water resources management climate change climate projections Strzepek, Kenneth Jacobsen, Michael Boehlert, Brent Neumann, James Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
description	The World Bank has recently developed a method to evaluate the effects of climate change on six hydrological indicators across 8951 basins of the world. The indicators are designed for decision-makers and stakeholders to consider climate risk when planning water resources and related infrastructure investments. Analysis of these hydrological indicators shows that, on average, mean annual runoff will decline in southern Europe; most of Africa; and in southern North America and most of Central and South America. Mean reference crop water deficit, on the other hand, combines temperature and precipitation and is anticipated to increase in nearly all locations globally due to rising global temperatures, with the most dramatic increases projected to occur in southern Europe, southeastern Asia, and parts of South America. These results suggest overall guidance on which regions to focus water infrastructure solutions that could address future runoff flow uncertainty. Most important, we find that uncertainty in projections of mean annual runoff and high runoff events is higher in poorer countries, and increases over time. Uncertainty increases over time for all income categories, but basins in the lower and lower-middle income categories are forecast to experience dramatically higher increases in uncertainty relative to those in the upper-middle and upper income categories. The enhanced understanding of the uncertainty of climate projections for the water sector that this work provides strongly support the adoption of rigorous approaches to infrastructure design under uncertainty, as well as design that incorporates a high degree of flexibility, in response to both risk of damage and opportunity to exploit water supply 'windfalls' that might result, but would require smart infrastructure investments to manage to the greatest benefit.
format	Journal Article
author	Strzepek, Kenneth Jacobsen, Michael Boehlert, Brent Neumann, James
author_facet	Strzepek, Kenneth Jacobsen, Michael Boehlert, Brent Neumann, James
author_sort	Strzepek, Kenneth
title	Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
title_short	Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
title_full	Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
title_fullStr	Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
title_full_unstemmed	Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries
title_sort	toward evaluating the effect of climate change on investments in the water resources sector : insights from the forecast and analysis of hydrological indicators in developing countries
publisher	IOP Publishing
publishDate	2015
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23180
_version_	1764453129544269824

Toward Evaluating the Effect of Climate Change on Investments in the Water Resources Sector : Insights from the Forecast and Analysis of Hydrological Indicators in Developing Countries

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