A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we pr...

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Main Authors:	O’Neill, Brian C., Kriegler, Elmar, Riahi, Keywan, Ebi, Kristie L., Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	en_US
Published:	Springer 2015
Subjects:	shared socioeconomic pathway climate change adaptation adaptation policy mitigative capacity radiative force level fossel fuel availability adaptation measures sustainable energy transition adaptive capacity
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23213

id	okr-10986-23213
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-232132021-04-23T14:04:13Z A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways O’Neill, Brian C. Kriegler, Elmar Riahi, Keywan Ebi, Kristie L. Hallegatte, Stephane shared socioeconomic pathway climate change adaptation adaptation policy mitigative capacity radiative force level fossel fuel availability adaptation measures sustainable energy transition adaptive capacity The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves. 2015-12-03T23:13:10Z 2015-12-03T23:13:10Z 2014-02 Journal Article Climate Change 1573-1480 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23213 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Springer Publications & Research :: Journal Article Publications & Research
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	en_US
topic	shared socioeconomic pathway climate change adaptation adaptation policy mitigative capacity radiative force level fossel fuel availability adaptation measures sustainable energy transition adaptive capacity
spellingShingle	shared socioeconomic pathway climate change adaptation adaptation policy mitigative capacity radiative force level fossel fuel availability adaptation measures sustainable energy transition adaptive capacity O’Neill, Brian C. Kriegler, Elmar Riahi, Keywan Ebi, Kristie L. Hallegatte, Stephane A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
description	The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
format	Journal Article
author	O’Neill, Brian C. Kriegler, Elmar Riahi, Keywan Ebi, Kristie L. Hallegatte, Stephane
author_facet	O’Neill, Brian C. Kriegler, Elmar Riahi, Keywan Ebi, Kristie L. Hallegatte, Stephane
author_sort	O’Neill, Brian C.
title	A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
title_short	A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
title_full	A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
title_fullStr	A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
title_full_unstemmed	A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
title_sort	new scenario framework for climate change research : the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
publisher	Springer
publishDate	2015
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23213
_version_	1764453218779136000

A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research : The Concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

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