Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors
This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to ge...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2015
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441 |
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okr-10986-23441 |
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oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
ALBEDO PHOTOSYNTHESIS DIVERGENCE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST DEGRADATION ALTITUDE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION ABATEMENT TEMPERATURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION FOREST MANAGEMENT ABSORPTION RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WIND SPEED CARBON GLOBAL WARMING CONCENTRATES ESTIMATES OF CARBON METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS FOREST PLANTATIONS ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES GHGS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS CLOUDINESS HUMIDITY RADIATIVE FORCING GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS BIOSPHERE SOLAR RADIATION EMISSION REDUCTIONS LAND USE AIR GREENHOUSE GAS CARBON CYCLE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION OIL PALM EMISSIONS ABATEMENT CARBON CAPTURE LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS RADIATION BIOMASS CARBON NEUTRAL FOREST SECTOR CO2 GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION TROPICS ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE NEGATIVE IMPACT EMISSION INCREASE BIOMASS RESOURCES EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE CARBON CAPTURE ENERGY SOURCES EMISSION LEVELS CAPACITY GHG GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST MODEL EMISSION LEVELS GLOBAL WARMING EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE CARBON SEQUESTRATION SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORESTRY EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS TROPICAL FORESTS SUGAR CANE CARBON SINK CLIMATE CHANGE HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST LOSS FOREST CARBON STOCK GAS EMISSIONS ENERGY POLICY PRECIPITATION CULTIVATED LAND EMISSIONS REDUCTION CLIMATE SENSITIVITY GREENHOUSE GASES CARBON PRICES CARBON EMISSIONS LAND USE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON GREENHOUSE EMISSION CARBON PRICE LEAD ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS FOREST SECTORS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT AIR MOISTURE EMISSION PATHWAYS LAND COVER CHANGE RADIATIVE FORCING FOREST DYNAMICS CLIMATE DEFORESTATION SOLAR RADIATION FORESTS EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION PATHWAYS FOREST CARBON STOCKS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS CLIMATE SYSTEM TROPICAL DEFORESTATION CARBON PRICE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION OZONE CONCENTRATION GLOBAL EMISSIONS CARBON FLUXES FERTILIZATION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FOREST SECTOR ENERGY PRODUCTION WOODY BIOMASS PROTEINS ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOREST METEOROLOGY BIOMASS ENERGY CARBON PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION COMBUSTION CARBON STOCK EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION NITROGEN OZONE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE WOODY BIOMASS CARBON STOCKS TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE HUMIDITY RAIN CLIMATE SYSTEM FOREST PLANTATIONS GCM CARBON SINK SURFACE TEMPERATURE AIR MOISTURE GASES CARBON TAX FOREST AREA FOREST AREA GLOBAL FOREST AFFORESTATION LAND‐USE WIND SPEED PRICES NEGATIVE IMPACTS BENEFITS EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE SURFACE ALBEDO ENERGY |
| spellingShingle |
ALBEDO PHOTOSYNTHESIS DIVERGENCE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST DEGRADATION ALTITUDE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION ABATEMENT TEMPERATURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION FOREST MANAGEMENT ABSORPTION RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WIND SPEED CARBON GLOBAL WARMING CONCENTRATES ESTIMATES OF CARBON METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS FOREST PLANTATIONS ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES GHGS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS CLOUDINESS HUMIDITY RADIATIVE FORCING GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS BIOSPHERE SOLAR RADIATION EMISSION REDUCTIONS LAND USE AIR GREENHOUSE GAS CARBON CYCLE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION OIL PALM EMISSIONS ABATEMENT CARBON CAPTURE LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS RADIATION BIOMASS CARBON NEUTRAL FOREST SECTOR CO2 GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION TROPICS ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE NEGATIVE IMPACT EMISSION INCREASE BIOMASS RESOURCES EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE CARBON CAPTURE ENERGY SOURCES EMISSION LEVELS CAPACITY GHG GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST MODEL EMISSION LEVELS GLOBAL WARMING EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE CARBON SEQUESTRATION SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORESTRY EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS TROPICAL FORESTS SUGAR CANE CARBON SINK CLIMATE CHANGE HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST LOSS FOREST CARBON STOCK GAS EMISSIONS ENERGY POLICY PRECIPITATION CULTIVATED LAND EMISSIONS REDUCTION CLIMATE SENSITIVITY GREENHOUSE GASES CARBON PRICES CARBON EMISSIONS LAND USE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON GREENHOUSE EMISSION CARBON PRICE LEAD ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS FOREST SECTORS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT AIR MOISTURE EMISSION PATHWAYS LAND COVER CHANGE RADIATIVE FORCING FOREST DYNAMICS CLIMATE DEFORESTATION SOLAR RADIATION FORESTS EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION PATHWAYS FOREST CARBON STOCKS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS CLIMATE SYSTEM TROPICAL DEFORESTATION CARBON PRICE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION OZONE CONCENTRATION GLOBAL EMISSIONS CARBON FLUXES FERTILIZATION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FOREST SECTOR ENERGY PRODUCTION WOODY BIOMASS PROTEINS ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOREST METEOROLOGY BIOMASS ENERGY CARBON PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION COMBUSTION CARBON STOCK EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION NITROGEN OZONE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE WOODY BIOMASS CARBON STOCKS TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE HUMIDITY RAIN CLIMATE SYSTEM FOREST PLANTATIONS GCM CARBON SINK SURFACE TEMPERATURE AIR MOISTURE GASES CARBON TAX FOREST AREA FOREST AREA GLOBAL FOREST AFFORESTATION LAND‐USE WIND SPEED PRICES NEGATIVE IMPACTS BENEFITS EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE SURFACE ALBEDO ENERGY Havlík, Petr Valin, Hugo Gusti, Mykola Schmid, Erwin Leclère, David Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Khabarov, Nikolay Mosnier, Aline Cantele, Matthew Obersteiner, Michael Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| relation |
Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7477 |
| description |
This paper conducts an integrated
assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation
on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in
low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the
partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to
2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the
agricultural sector will increase progressively over the
century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food
consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a
world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In
the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global
average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent
by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C
uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also
result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050
and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference
scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change
mitigation on development than climate change itself,
revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be
redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects
of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets
raise important issues for food security in the long run,
but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030.
Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income
countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus
prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and
mitigation efforts will become the greatest. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Havlík, Petr Valin, Hugo Gusti, Mykola Schmid, Erwin Leclère, David Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Khabarov, Nikolay Mosnier, Aline Cantele, Matthew Obersteiner, Michael |
| author_facet |
Havlík, Petr Valin, Hugo Gusti, Mykola Schmid, Erwin Leclère, David Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Khabarov, Nikolay Mosnier, Aline Cantele, Matthew Obersteiner, Michael |
| author_sort |
Havlík, Petr |
| title |
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| title_short |
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| title_full |
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| title_fullStr |
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors |
| title_sort |
climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world : an integrated assessment of the agriculture and forestry sectors |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2015 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441 |
| _version_ |
1764453854667079680 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-234412021-06-14T10:18:03Z Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation in the Developing World : An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors Havlík, Petr Valin, Hugo Gusti, Mykola Schmid, Erwin Leclère, David Forsell, Nicklas Herrero, Mario Khabarov, Nikolay Mosnier, Aline Cantele, Matthew Obersteiner, Michael ALBEDO PHOTOSYNTHESIS DIVERGENCE EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST DEGRADATION ALTITUDE EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION ABATEMENT TEMPERATURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION FOREST MANAGEMENT ABSORPTION RELATIVE HUMIDITY GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WIND SPEED CARBON GLOBAL WARMING CONCENTRATES ESTIMATES OF CARBON METEOROLOGY WIND EMISSIONS FOREST PLANTATIONS ATMOSPHERE INCENTIVES GHGS EVAPOTRANSPIRATION GAS GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS CLOUDINESS HUMIDITY RADIATIVE FORCING GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CARBON CYCLE FEEDBACKS BIOSPHERE SOLAR RADIATION EMISSION REDUCTIONS LAND USE AIR GREENHOUSE GAS CARBON CYCLE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION OIL PALM EMISSIONS ABATEMENT CARBON CAPTURE LAND USE CHANGE EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS RADIATION BIOMASS CARBON NEUTRAL FOREST SECTOR CO2 GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION TROPICS ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE NEGATIVE IMPACT EMISSION INCREASE BIOMASS RESOURCES EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE CHANGE CARBON CAPTURE ENERGY SOURCES EMISSION LEVELS CAPACITY GHG GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTION FOREST MODEL EMISSION LEVELS GLOBAL WARMING EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE LAND USE CHANGE CARBON SEQUESTRATION SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORESTRY EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS TROPICAL FORESTS SUGAR CANE CARBON SINK CLIMATE CHANGE HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST LOSS FOREST CARBON STOCK GAS EMISSIONS ENERGY POLICY PRECIPITATION CULTIVATED LAND EMISSIONS REDUCTION CLIMATE SENSITIVITY GREENHOUSE GASES CARBON PRICES CARBON EMISSIONS LAND USE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON GREENHOUSE EMISSION CARBON PRICE LEAD ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS FOREST SECTORS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHT AIR MOISTURE EMISSION PATHWAYS LAND COVER CHANGE RADIATIVE FORCING FOREST DYNAMICS CLIMATE DEFORESTATION SOLAR RADIATION FORESTS EMISSIONS FROM LAND USE EMISSION PATHWAYS FOREST CARBON STOCKS ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE GAS CLIMATE SYSTEM TROPICAL DEFORESTATION CARBON PRICE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION OZONE CONCENTRATION GLOBAL EMISSIONS CARBON FLUXES FERTILIZATION GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS FOREST SECTOR ENERGY PRODUCTION WOODY BIOMASS PROTEINS ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOREST METEOROLOGY BIOMASS ENERGY CARBON PRICES ENERGY PRODUCTION COMBUSTION CARBON STOCK EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION NITROGEN OZONE ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE WOODY BIOMASS CARBON STOCKS TROPOSPHERIC OZONE ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE HUMIDITY RAIN CLIMATE SYSTEM FOREST PLANTATIONS GCM CARBON SINK SURFACE TEMPERATURE AIR MOISTURE GASES CARBON TAX FOREST AREA FOREST AREA GLOBAL FOREST AFFORESTATION LAND‐USE WIND SPEED PRICES NEGATIVE IMPACTS BENEFITS EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE SURFACE ALBEDO ENERGY This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest. 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z 2015-12-18T19:32:32Z 2015-11 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25250682/climate-change-impacts-mitigation-developing-world-integrated-assessment-agriculture-forestry-sectors http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23441 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7477 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research |