The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in...

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Main Authors:	Rozenberg, Julie, Hallegatte, Stephane
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2015
Subjects:	SANITATION POVERTY THRESHOLD INCOME ON FOOD JOBS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POOR PEOPLE INDICATORS FOR POVERTY FOOD PRICE RISKS IMPACT OF HURRICANES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY UNCERTAINTIES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY LINE IMPACT ON POVERTY SUBSTITUTION SECTORAL RESULTS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMISSION ABATEMENT POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES INCOME POVERTY RATES POVERTY ESTIMATES INCOME GROWTH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHANGES IN PRICES COUNTERFACTUAL EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOOD PRICES REVENUES POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS DEATH POVERTY DYNAMICS AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY LINE MODELS CLIMATE SCENARIOS PRICE GLOBAL POVERTY CROP YIELD MEASURES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA FOOD MARKETS HURRICANES EXTREME WEATHER DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SAVINGS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CLIMATE POLICIES FAT TAILS INCOME DISTRIBUTION EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION TOTAL CONSUMPTION LABOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS AGRICULTURAL WAGES MARKETS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CYCLONES CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD PRODUCTS CASH TRANSFERS EXTREME TEMPERATURE FINANCE AGRICULTURAL POLICY CROP YIELDS CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE POVERTY ERADICATION FOOD SECURITY ECONOMIC COSTS AGRICULTURAL WORKERS POLICIES INCOME REDISTRIBUTION CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT POLICY MAKERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES CLIMATE ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMAND ABATEMENT NATIONAL INCOME ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOOD EXPENDITURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION MALNUTRITION RURAL DEEP UNCERTAINTY NUTRITION HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE POLICY HUMAN HEALTH COST OF CARBON DRINKING WATER HURRICANE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS POOR HOUSEHOLDS POVERTY POOR FARMERS FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SUPPLY SUPPLY POLICY IMPLICATIONS LABOR SUPPLY POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXCHANGE RATE POVERTY IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRICES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BENEFITS INEQUALITY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447

id	okr-10986-23447
recordtype	oai_dc
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	SANITATION POVERTY THRESHOLD INCOME ON FOOD JOBS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POOR PEOPLE INDICATORS FOR POVERTY FOOD PRICE RISKS IMPACT OF HURRICANES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY UNCERTAINTIES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY LINE IMPACT ON POVERTY SUBSTITUTION SECTORAL RESULTS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMISSION ABATEMENT POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES INCOME POVERTY RATES POVERTY ESTIMATES INCOME GROWTH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHANGES IN PRICES COUNTERFACTUAL INCOME ON FOOD EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOOD PRICES REVENUES POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS DEATH POVERTY DYNAMICS POOR PEOPLE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY LINE MODELS CLIMATE SCENARIOS PRICE GLOBAL POVERTY CROP YIELD MEASURES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA FOOD MARKETS HURRICANES EXTREME WEATHER POVERTY REDUCTION DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CROP YIELD FOOD MARKETS SAVINGS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CLIMATE POLICIES FAT TAILS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION FOOD PRICE TOTAL CONSUMPTION GLOBAL POVERTY LABOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS AGRICULTURAL WAGES MARKETS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CYCLONES CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD PRODUCTS CASH TRANSFERS EXTREME TEMPERATURE FINANCE FOOD PRODUCTION IMPACT ON POVERTY AGRICULTURAL POLICY CROP YIELDS CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE POVERTY ERADICATION FOOD SECURITY ECONOMIC COSTS AGRICULTURAL WORKERS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME POVERTY LINE INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POVERTY RATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA POLICY MAKERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES CLIMATE ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMAND ABATEMENT NATIONAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOOD EXPENDITURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES MALNUTRITION RURAL DEEP UNCERTAINTY NUTRITION HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE POLICY HUMAN HEALTH CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURAL WORKERS COST OF CARBON DRINKING WATER POVERTY ERADICATION HURRICANE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS EXTREME POVERTY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS POOR HOUSEHOLDS FOOD PRODUCTS POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS POVERTY POOR FARMERS FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SUPPLY SUPPLY POLICY IMPLICATIONS LABOR SUPPLY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY FOOD SECURITY POVERTY DYNAMICS INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXCHANGE RATE POVERTY IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS FOOD PRICES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS AGRICULTURAL SECTOR POOR FARMERS POVERTY THRESHOLD ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRICES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BENEFITS INEQUALITY POOR HOUSEHOLDS INDICATORS FOR POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
spellingShingle	SANITATION POVERTY THRESHOLD INCOME ON FOOD JOBS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POOR PEOPLE INDICATORS FOR POVERTY FOOD PRICE RISKS IMPACT OF HURRICANES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY UNCERTAINTIES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY LINE IMPACT ON POVERTY SUBSTITUTION SECTORAL RESULTS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMISSION ABATEMENT POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES INCOME POVERTY RATES POVERTY ESTIMATES INCOME GROWTH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHANGES IN PRICES COUNTERFACTUAL INCOME ON FOOD EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOOD PRICES REVENUES POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS DEATH POVERTY DYNAMICS POOR PEOPLE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY LINE MODELS CLIMATE SCENARIOS PRICE GLOBAL POVERTY CROP YIELD MEASURES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA FOOD MARKETS HURRICANES EXTREME WEATHER POVERTY REDUCTION DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CROP YIELD FOOD MARKETS SAVINGS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CLIMATE POLICIES FAT TAILS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION FOOD PRICE TOTAL CONSUMPTION GLOBAL POVERTY LABOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS AGRICULTURAL WAGES MARKETS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CYCLONES CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD PRODUCTS CASH TRANSFERS EXTREME TEMPERATURE FINANCE FOOD PRODUCTION IMPACT ON POVERTY AGRICULTURAL POLICY CROP YIELDS CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE POVERTY ERADICATION FOOD SECURITY ECONOMIC COSTS AGRICULTURAL WORKERS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME POVERTY LINE INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POVERTY RATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA POLICY MAKERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES CLIMATE ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMAND ABATEMENT NATIONAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOOD EXPENDITURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES MALNUTRITION RURAL DEEP UNCERTAINTY NUTRITION HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE POLICY HUMAN HEALTH CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURAL WORKERS COST OF CARBON DRINKING WATER POVERTY ERADICATION HURRICANE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS EXTREME POVERTY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS POOR HOUSEHOLDS FOOD PRODUCTS POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS POVERTY POOR FARMERS FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SUPPLY SUPPLY POLICY IMPLICATIONS LABOR SUPPLY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY FOOD SECURITY POVERTY DYNAMICS INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXCHANGE RATE POVERTY IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS FOOD PRICES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS AGRICULTURAL SECTOR POOR FARMERS POVERTY THRESHOLD ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRICES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BENEFITS INEQUALITY POOR HOUSEHOLDS INDICATORS FOR POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7483
description	The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario).
format	Working Paper
author	Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_facet	Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane
author_sort	Rozenberg, Julie
title	The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
title_short	The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
title_full	The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
title_fullStr	The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
title_full_unstemmed	The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development
title_sort	impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2015
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447
_version_	1764453865503064064
spelling	okr-10986-234472021-04-23T14:04:15Z The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development Rozenberg, Julie Hallegatte, Stephane SANITATION POVERTY THRESHOLD INCOME ON FOOD JOBS IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE POOR PEOPLE INDICATORS FOR POVERTY FOOD PRICE RISKS IMPACT OF HURRICANES HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY UNCERTAINTIES POVERTY REDUCTION POVERTY LINE IMPACT ON POVERTY SUBSTITUTION SECTORAL RESULTS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMISSION ABATEMENT POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES INCOME POVERTY RATES POVERTY ESTIMATES INCOME GROWTH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHANGES IN PRICES COUNTERFACTUAL INCOME ON FOOD EMISSIONS EXTREME SCENARIOS COST‐BENEFIT ANALYSIS FOOD PRICES REVENUES POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS DEATH POVERTY DYNAMICS POOR PEOPLE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY LINE MODELS CLIMATE SCENARIOS PRICE GLOBAL POVERTY CROP YIELD MEASURES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA FOOD MARKETS HURRICANES EXTREME WEATHER POVERTY REDUCTION DEEP‐UNCERTAINTY AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CROP YIELD FOOD MARKETS SAVINGS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS SCENARIOS PER CAPITA INCOME DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS EXTREME POVERTY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CLIMATE POLICIES FAT TAILS INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GROWTH EMISSIONS‐REDUCTION FOOD PRICE TOTAL CONSUMPTION GLOBAL POVERTY LABOR PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS AGRICULTURAL WAGES MARKETS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CYCLONES CLIMATE CHANGE FOOD PRODUCTION FARMERS FAMINE FOOD PRODUCTS CASH TRANSFERS EXTREME TEMPERATURE FINANCE FOOD PRODUCTION IMPACT ON POVERTY AGRICULTURAL POLICY CROP YIELDS CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC IMPACT ECONOMIC RESILIENCE POVERTY ERADICATION FOOD SECURITY ECONOMIC COSTS AGRICULTURAL WORKERS POLICIES CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREME POVERTY LINE INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POVERTY RATES CLIMATIC CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA POLICY MAKERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CASH TRANSFERS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES CLIMATE ECONOMIC SECTORS DEMAND ABATEMENT NATIONAL INCOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION ABSOLUTE POVERTY AGRICULTURAL SECTOR FOOD EXPENDITURE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES MALNUTRITION RURAL DEEP UNCERTAINTY NUTRITION HOUSEHOLD BUDGET ENVIRONMENTAL CATASTROPHE ENERGY PRICES PRICE INCREASE POLICY HUMAN HEALTH CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURAL WORKERS COST OF CARBON DRINKING WATER POVERTY ERADICATION HURRICANE UNCERTAIN IMPACTS ECONOMIC IMPACTS EXTREME POVERTY CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS POOR HOUSEHOLDS FOOD PRODUCTS POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS POVERTY POOR FARMERS FOOD PRICE FLUCTUATIONS FOOD SUPPLY SUPPLY POLICY IMPLICATIONS LABOR SUPPLY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY FOOD SECURITY POVERTY DYNAMICS INCOME REDISTRIBUTION POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EXCHANGE RATE POVERTY IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS FOOD PRICES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS AGRICULTURAL SECTOR POOR FARMERS POVERTY THRESHOLD ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PRICES ECONOMIC CONDITIONS BENEFITS INEQUALITY POOR HOUSEHOLDS INDICATORS FOR POVERTY HOUSEHOLD SURVEY The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in 92 countries shows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ across countries. Two representative scenarios are selected from these hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding poverty and is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario is pessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios. By 2030, climate change is found to have a significant impact on poverty, especially through higher food prices and reduction of agricultural production in Africa and South Asia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitude of these impacts depends on development choices. In the prosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate change increases poverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. The increase in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122 million if development is delayed and less inclusive (the poverty scenario). 2015-12-18T20:01:44Z 2015-12-18T20:01:44Z 2015-11 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25257367/impacts-climate-change-poverty-2030-potential-rapid-inclusive-climate-informed-development http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23447 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7483 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Publications & Research

The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

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