Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments
Long-term commitments to make output-based payments for infrastructure can encourage private investors to provide socially valuable services. Making good decisions about such commitments is difficult, however, unless the government understands the...
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| Format: | Working Paper |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/06/6421430/techniques-estimating-fiscal-costs-risks-long-term-output-based-payments http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23690 |
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okr-10986-236902021-04-23T14:04:16Z Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments Boyle, Glenn Irwin, Timothy CALCULATION DISCOUNT RATE EQUATIONS EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION KNOWING LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STATISTICIANS TELECOMMUNICATIONS VALUATION VARIABILITY Long-term commitments to make output-based payments for infrastructure can encourage private investors to provide socially valuable services. Making good decisions about such commitments is difficult, however, unless the government understands the fiscal costs and risks of possible commitments. Considering voucher schemes, shadow tolls, availability payments, and access, connection, and consumption subsidies, this paper considers measures of the fiscal risks of such commitments, including the excess-payment probability and cash-flow-at-risk. Then it illustrates techniques, based on modern finance theory, for valuing payment commitments by taking account of the timing of payments and their risk characteristics. Although the paper is inevitably mathematical, it focuses on practical applications and shows how the techniques can be implemented in spreadsheets. 2016-01-27T22:40:15Z 2016-01-27T22:40:15Z 2005-06 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/06/6421430/techniques-estimating-fiscal-costs-risks-long-term-output-based-payments http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23690 English en_US OBA working paper series;no. 5 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research :: Working Paper Publications & Research |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
| building |
World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
CALCULATION DISCOUNT RATE EQUATIONS EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION KNOWING LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STATISTICIANS TELECOMMUNICATIONS VALUATION VARIABILITY |
| spellingShingle |
CALCULATION DISCOUNT RATE EQUATIONS EXPECTED RETURN EXPECTED VALUE FORECASTS FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION KNOWING LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION MONTE CARLO SIMULATION PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION STANDARD DEVIATION STANDARD DEVIATIONS STATISTICIANS TELECOMMUNICATIONS VALUATION VARIABILITY Boyle, Glenn Irwin, Timothy Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| relation |
OBA working paper series;no. 5 |
| description |
Long-term commitments to make
output-based payments for infrastructure can encourage
private investors to provide socially valuable services.
Making good decisions about such commitments is difficult,
however, unless the government understands the fiscal costs
and risks of possible commitments. Considering voucher
schemes, shadow tolls, availability payments, and access,
connection, and consumption subsidies, this paper considers
measures of the fiscal risks of such commitments, including
the excess-payment probability and cash-flow-at-risk. Then
it illustrates techniques, based on modern finance theory,
for valuing payment commitments by taking account of the
timing of payments and their risk characteristics. Although
the paper is inevitably mathematical, it focuses on
practical applications and shows how the techniques can be
implemented in spreadsheets. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| author |
Boyle, Glenn Irwin, Timothy |
| author_facet |
Boyle, Glenn Irwin, Timothy |
| author_sort |
Boyle, Glenn |
| title |
Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| title_short |
Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| title_full |
Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| title_fullStr |
Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Techniques for Estimating the Fiscal Costs and Risks of Long-Term Output-Based Payments |
| title_sort |
techniques for estimating the fiscal costs and risks of long-term output-based payments |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/06/6421430/techniques-estimating-fiscal-costs-risks-long-term-output-based-payments http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23690 |
| _version_ |
1764454545201561600 |