MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace

This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Devarajan, Shantayanan, Mottaghi, Lili
Format:	Serial
Language:	en_US
Published:	Washington, DC: World Bank 2016
Subjects:	civil war conflict development economics economic model economic policy growth investment nuclear talks oil prices oil-exporting countries sanctions trade volatility windfall
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23705

id	okr-10986-23705
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-237052021-04-23T14:04:16Z MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace Devarajan, Shantayanan Mottaghi, Lili civil war conflict development economics economic model economic policy growth investment nuclear talks oil prices oil-exporting countries sanctions trade volatility windfall This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries. 2016-02-01T23:00:24Z 2016-02-01T23:00:24Z 2016-02-03 Serial 978-1-4648-0822-7 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23705 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank Washington, DC: World Bank Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Publication Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	en_US
topic	civil war conflict development economics economic model economic policy growth investment nuclear talks oil prices oil-exporting countries sanctions trade volatility windfall
spellingShingle	civil war conflict development economics economic model economic policy growth investment nuclear talks oil prices oil-exporting countries sanctions trade volatility windfall Devarajan, Shantayanan Mottaghi, Lili MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Middle East North Africa
description	This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries.
format	Serial
author	Devarajan, Shantayanan Mottaghi, Lili
author_facet	Devarajan, Shantayanan Mottaghi, Lili
author_sort	Devarajan, Shantayanan
title	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
title_short	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
title_full	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
title_fullStr	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
title_full_unstemmed	MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace
title_sort	mena quarterly economic brief, january 2016 : the economic effects of war and peace
publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
publishDate	2016
url	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23705
_version_	1764454587381579776

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016 : The Economic Effects of War and Peace

Similar Items