Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses

This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3...

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Main Authors:	Ianchovichina, Elena, Devarajan, Shantayanan, Lakatos, Csilla
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	OIL IMPORTERS TIME HORIZON AUTOMOBILE AUTO PRODUCTION CANE ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURAL CHANGE VEHICLES ACTIVITIES TRADE BARRIERS OIL OUTPUT OIL SUPPLY EXPORTS WOOD PRODUCTS ELASTICITY EXPORTERS WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EQUILIBRIUM GAS BARRELS PER DAY CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION PRICE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT TAX DOMESTIC OIL INPUTS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION PAYMENTS MARKET ACCESS AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES CENTRAL BANK OILS OIL PRICES PETROLEUM TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OIL DEMAND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS COSTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES PER CAPITA INCOME OIL TRADE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS OIL ACCOUNTS TRADING BLOCS BASE YEAR PRODUCTIVITY WATER DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION GAS TECHNOLOGY MARKETS WTO OIL IMPORTS WORLD PRICES TRUE SUGAR CANE IMPORTS AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT UTILITY SUPPLY RESPONSE TAXES AUTOMOBILES BORDER TRADE CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DRIVING TRAVEL TRANSPORTATION OIL MARKET CAPITAL WAGES GLOBAL MARKET POLICIES FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE CARS POWER COMPETITIVENESS ELECTRICITY PRICE OF OIL PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION WORLD ECONOMY DEMAND OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES UTILITY FUNCTION OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE EXCESS DEMAND MOTOR VEHICLES CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OIL EXPORTS TARIFF BARRIERS NET OIL BENCHMARK EXPORT REVENUE CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL USE TRADE WORLD PRICE FOREIGN COMPETITION NATURAL GAS AIR TRANSPORT GDP GOODS THEORY BILATERAL TRADE OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT COAL TARIFF SUPPLY CRUDE OIL SEA TRANSPORT TARIFFS ON IMPORTS REGIME CHANGE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORT COSTS OUTCOMES TRADING PARTNERS OIL USE TRADE REGIME EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES APPROACH BENEFITS ECONOMIES ENERGY DEVELOPMENT POLICY
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25854542/lifting-economic-sanctions-iran-global-effects-strategic-responses http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726

id	okr-10986-23726
recordtype	oai_dc
spelling	okr-10986-237262021-04-23T14:04:16Z Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses Ianchovichina, Elena Devarajan, Shantayanan Lakatos, Csilla OIL IMPORTERS TIME HORIZON AUTOMOBILE AUTO PRODUCTION CANE ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURAL CHANGE VEHICLES ACTIVITIES TRADE BARRIERS OIL OUTPUT OIL SUPPLY EXPORTS WOOD PRODUCTS ELASTICITY EXPORTERS WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EQUILIBRIUM GAS BARRELS PER DAY CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION PRICE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT TAX DOMESTIC OIL INPUTS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION PAYMENTS MARKET ACCESS AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES CENTRAL BANK OILS OIL PRICES PETROLEUM TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OIL DEMAND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS COSTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES PER CAPITA INCOME OIL TRADE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS OIL ACCOUNTS TRADING BLOCS BASE YEAR PRODUCTIVITY WATER DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION GAS TECHNOLOGY MARKETS WTO OIL IMPORTS WORLD PRICES TRUE SUGAR CANE IMPORTS AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT UTILITY SUPPLY RESPONSE TAXES AUTOMOBILES BORDER TRADE CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DRIVING TRAVEL TRANSPORTATION OIL MARKET CAPITAL WAGES GLOBAL MARKET POLICIES FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE CARS POWER COMPETITIVENESS ELECTRICITY PRICE OF OIL PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION WORLD ECONOMY DEMAND OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES UTILITY FUNCTION OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE EXCESS DEMAND MOTOR VEHICLES CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OIL EXPORTS TARIFF BARRIERS NET OIL BENCHMARK EXPORT REVENUE CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL USE TRADE WORLD PRICE FOREIGN COMPETITION NATURAL GAS AIR TRANSPORT GDP GOODS THEORY BILATERAL TRADE OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT COAL TARIFF SUPPLY CRUDE OIL SEA TRANSPORT TARIFFS ON IMPORTS REGIME CHANGE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORT COSTS OUTCOMES TRADING PARTNERS OIL USE TRADE REGIME EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES APPROACH BENEFITS ECONOMIES ENERGY DEVELOPMENT POLICY This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off. 2016-02-03T20:00:34Z 2016-02-03T20:00:34Z 2016-02 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25854542/lifting-economic-sanctions-iran-global-effects-strategic-responses http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7549 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper Middle East and North Africa Iran, Islamic Republic of
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	OIL IMPORTERS TIME HORIZON AUTOMOBILE AUTO PRODUCTION CANE ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURAL CHANGE VEHICLES ACTIVITIES TRADE BARRIERS OIL OUTPUT OIL SUPPLY EXPORTS WOOD PRODUCTS ELASTICITY EXPORTERS WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EQUILIBRIUM GAS BARRELS PER DAY CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION PRICE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT TAX DOMESTIC OIL INPUTS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION PAYMENTS MARKET ACCESS AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES CENTRAL BANK OILS OIL PRICES PETROLEUM TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OIL DEMAND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS COSTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES PER CAPITA INCOME OIL TRADE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS OIL ACCOUNTS TRADING BLOCS BASE YEAR PRODUCTIVITY WATER DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION GAS TECHNOLOGY MARKETS WTO OIL IMPORTS WORLD PRICES TRUE SUGAR CANE IMPORTS AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT UTILITY SUPPLY RESPONSE TAXES AUTOMOBILES BORDER TRADE CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DRIVING TRAVEL TRANSPORTATION OIL MARKET CAPITAL WAGES GLOBAL MARKET POLICIES FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE CARS POWER COMPETITIVENESS ELECTRICITY PRICE OF OIL PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION WORLD ECONOMY DEMAND OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES UTILITY FUNCTION OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE EXCESS DEMAND MOTOR VEHICLES CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OIL EXPORTS TARIFF BARRIERS NET OIL BENCHMARK EXPORT REVENUE CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL USE TRADE WORLD PRICE FOREIGN COMPETITION NATURAL GAS AIR TRANSPORT GDP GOODS THEORY BILATERAL TRADE OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT COAL TARIFF SUPPLY CRUDE OIL SEA TRANSPORT TARIFFS ON IMPORTS REGIME CHANGE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORT COSTS OUTCOMES TRADING PARTNERS OIL USE TRADE REGIME EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES APPROACH BENEFITS ECONOMIES ENERGY DEVELOPMENT POLICY
spellingShingle	OIL IMPORTERS TIME HORIZON AUTOMOBILE AUTO PRODUCTION CANE ECONOMIC GROWTH OIL PRICE ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION STRUCTURAL CHANGE VEHICLES ACTIVITIES TRADE BARRIERS OIL OUTPUT OIL SUPPLY EXPORTS WOOD PRODUCTS ELASTICITY EXPORTERS WELFARE ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS EQUILIBRIUM GAS BARRELS PER DAY CRUDE OIL EXTRACTION PRICE EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT TAX DOMESTIC OIL INPUTS OIL CONSUMPTION OIL PRODUCTION PAYMENTS MARKET ACCESS AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES CENTRAL BANK OILS OIL PRICES PETROLEUM TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OIL DEMAND EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS GLOBAL ECONOMY ECONOMIC RESTRICTIONS COSTS AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES PER CAPITA INCOME OIL TRADE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS TRANSPORT REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS OIL ACCOUNTS TRADING BLOCS BASE YEAR PRODUCTIVITY WATER DOMESTIC OIL CONSUMPTION GAS TECHNOLOGY MARKETS WTO OIL IMPORTS WORLD PRICES TRUE SUGAR CANE IMPORTS AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT UTILITY SUPPLY RESPONSE TAXES AUTOMOBILES BORDER TRADE CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DRIVING TRAVEL TRANSPORTATION OIL MARKET CAPITAL WAGES GLOBAL MARKET POLICIES FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS INTERNATIONAL TRADE OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE CARS POWER COMPETITIVENESS ELECTRICITY PRICE OF OIL PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION WORLD ECONOMY DEMAND OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES UTILITY FUNCTION OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE EXCESS DEMAND MOTOR VEHICLES CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OIL EXPORTS TARIFF BARRIERS NET OIL BENCHMARK EXPORT REVENUE CAPITAL GOODS CAPITAL USE TRADE WORLD PRICE FOREIGN COMPETITION NATURAL GAS AIR TRANSPORT GDP GOODS THEORY BILATERAL TRADE OIL EXPORTERS INVESTMENT COAL TARIFF SUPPLY CRUDE OIL SEA TRANSPORT TARIFFS ON IMPORTS REGIME CHANGE PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORT COSTS OUTCOMES TRADING PARTNERS OIL USE TRADE REGIME EXPORT COMMODITY PRICES APPROACH BENEFITS ECONOMIES ENERGY DEVELOPMENT POLICY Ianchovichina, Elena Devarajan, Shantayanan Lakatos, Csilla Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
geographic_facet	Middle East and North Africa Iran, Islamic Republic of
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7549
description	This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5 percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms that enable a strong supply response, and increased market access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing, however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil exporters worse off.
format	Working Paper
author	Ianchovichina, Elena Devarajan, Shantayanan Lakatos, Csilla
author_facet	Ianchovichina, Elena Devarajan, Shantayanan Lakatos, Csilla
author_sort	Ianchovichina, Elena
title	Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
title_short	Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
title_full	Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
title_fullStr	Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
title_full_unstemmed	Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
title_sort	lifting economic sanctions on iran : global effects and strategic responses
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25854542/lifting-economic-sanctions-iran-global-effects-strategic-responses http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726
_version_	1764454644021460992

Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses

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