Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects 2006 : Financial Markets in a New Age of Oil
This edtion of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reports highlights the recent key economic developments as well as the forces underlying the region's economic outcomes. It analyzes the region's m...
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Format: | Report |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
Washington, DC: World Bank
2016
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/01/7540124/2006-economic-developments-prospects-financial-markets-new-age-oil http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23971 |
Summary: | This edtion of the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) economic developments and prospects reports
highlights the recent key economic developments as well as
the forces underlying the region's economic outcomes.
It analyzes the region's medium term growth prospects
given global forecasts, and charts the region?s progress
with implementing comprehensive structural reforms needed
for longer-term growth. For the third year in a row, MENA
enjoyed a spectacular year of growth, buoyed by record high
growth rates among the region's oil exporters. As oil
prices continued their upward climb, the MENA region grew by
an average of 6.0 percent over 2005, up from 5.6 percent
over 2004, and compared with average growth of only 3.5
percent over the late 1990s. On an annual basis, MENA's
average economic growth over the last three years, at 6.2
percent per year, has been the highest three-year growth
period for the region since the late 1970s. MENA's
regional growth upturn has not been universally shared,
however, and resource poor economies are increasingly
feeling the adverse impact of higher oil prices. Growth
patterns among oil producers, on the other hand, have been
increasingly harmonized, reflecting a trend toward common
development strategies. Over the medium term, general
conditions for maintaining a solid pace for growth appear
promising. The oil shock MENA is experiencing has had
important financial spillovers. Over the last few years,
MENA has seen an upsurge in financial activity, as abundant
liquidity has fed a rapid rise in credit growth, surging
stock markets, and a booming real estate sector. A troubling
aspect about MENA's financial markets is the seeming
disconnect between the financial sector and the real private
economy, despite the appearance of a relatively deep
financial sector by macroeconomic indicators. Along with
across the board policy reform, MENA economies continue to
look to selective industrial policies designed to enhance
specific sector competitiveness and growth to complement
more broad-based structural reform. Although the views on
industrial policy are changing, and a variety of economic
justifications can be made for their use, MENA's own
unsuccessful history with industrial policies (and the
difficulty in transitioning out of them) should serve as a
cautious reminder that the most effective policies for
promoting growth rely on strategies to create a neutral and
internationally competitive business environment. |
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