Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
Moldova’s recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by...
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24043 |
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okr-10986-24043 |
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oai_dc |
| repository_type |
Digital Repository |
| institution_category |
Foreign Institution |
| institution |
Digital Repositories |
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World Bank Open Knowledge Repository |
| collection |
World Bank |
| language |
English en_US |
| topic |
TARIFFS REGULATORY FRAMEWORK CUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION CUSTOMS UNION EXPORT MARKETS CURRENCY APPRECIATION MULTILATERAL TRADE PROFIT MARGINS EXPORT CAPACITY FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION PRODUCTION FOREIGN INVESTORS INCOME BARRIERS ON IMPORTS EXPECTATIONS TRADE BARRIERS REAL GDP PROPERTY RIGHTS PROTECTIONIST DOMESTIC MARKET EXPORTS NATIONAL TREATMENT STATISTICAL DATA ELASTICITY TRADE AREAS EXPORT PRICES ECONOMIC RELATIONS WELFARE TARIFF CONCESSIONS SPECIAL INCENTIVES OPTIMIZATION GROSS VALUE INCENTIVES FREE IMPORTS EQUILIBRIUM DISTRIBUTION INPUTS PAYMENTS FREE TRADE TECHNICAL REGULATIONS TRENDS PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TRADE AGREEMENTS CUSTOMS PROCEDURES CUSTOMS DUTIES TRADE IN GOODS INFLUENCE TRADE BALANCE FOREIGN TRADE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY SAVINGS IMPORT PRICES COSTS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS RENT CUSTOMS PRODUCTIVITY FREE ACCESS MONOPOLY IMPERFECT COMPETITION QUOTAS CRITERIA EXPORT VOLUME MARKETS WTO TARIFF REDUCTIONS IMPORTS PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS TRADE POLICY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL UTILITY TRADE AGREEMENT CUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TRADE COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT MARKET PRODUCTION INPUTS TAXES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS TRADE VOLUME EXPORT FACILITATION CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM TRADE IN SERVICES GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED TRAVEL CAPITAL WAGES TRADE PREFERENCES DEFLATORS INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS VALUE COMPETITIVENESS TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS TRADE DEFICIT PURCHASING POWER ECONOMIC SECTORS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES EXPORT PRODUCTS DEMAND NATIONAL INCOME DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTED VALUE ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE TAX RATES TRADE AREA TRADE FACILITATION TRADE LIBERALIZATION PRODUCTION FUNCTION PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT SKILLED LABOR TRADE DIVERSION TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION MUTUAL RECOGNITION GDP EXPORT PRICE GOODS ECONOMIES OF SCALE GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE MARGINAL REVENUE INVESTMENT SUPERMARKETS HOTELS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CUSTOMS UNIONS TARIFF TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SANCTIONS FREE TRADE AREA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX WORLD TRADE TARIFF CONCESSION MOST FAVORED NATION PREFERENTIAL TARIFF PRICE INDEXES FINANCIAL SECTOR OUTCOMES IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY TRADE REGIME CUSTOMS DECLARATIONS OUTSOURCING UNSKILLED LABOR TARIFF TREATMENT PRICES PRODUCTION COSTS BENEFITS ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS INEQUALITY |
| spellingShingle |
TARIFFS REGULATORY FRAMEWORK CUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION CUSTOMS UNION EXPORT MARKETS CURRENCY APPRECIATION MULTILATERAL TRADE PROFIT MARGINS EXPORT CAPACITY FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION PRODUCTION FOREIGN INVESTORS INCOME BARRIERS ON IMPORTS EXPECTATIONS TRADE BARRIERS REAL GDP PROPERTY RIGHTS PROTECTIONIST DOMESTIC MARKET EXPORTS NATIONAL TREATMENT STATISTICAL DATA ELASTICITY TRADE AREAS EXPORT PRICES ECONOMIC RELATIONS WELFARE TARIFF CONCESSIONS SPECIAL INCENTIVES OPTIMIZATION GROSS VALUE INCENTIVES FREE IMPORTS EQUILIBRIUM DISTRIBUTION INPUTS PAYMENTS FREE TRADE TECHNICAL REGULATIONS TRENDS PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TRADE AGREEMENTS CUSTOMS PROCEDURES CUSTOMS DUTIES TRADE IN GOODS INFLUENCE TRADE BALANCE FOREIGN TRADE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY SAVINGS IMPORT PRICES COSTS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS RENT CUSTOMS PRODUCTIVITY FREE ACCESS MONOPOLY IMPERFECT COMPETITION QUOTAS CRITERIA EXPORT VOLUME MARKETS WTO TARIFF REDUCTIONS IMPORTS PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS TRADE POLICY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL UTILITY TRADE AGREEMENT CUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TRADE COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT MARKET PRODUCTION INPUTS TAXES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS TRADE VOLUME EXPORT FACILITATION CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM TRADE IN SERVICES GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED TRAVEL CAPITAL WAGES TRADE PREFERENCES DEFLATORS INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS VALUE COMPETITIVENESS TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS TRADE DEFICIT PURCHASING POWER ECONOMIC SECTORS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES EXPORT PRODUCTS DEMAND NATIONAL INCOME DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTED VALUE ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE TAX RATES TRADE AREA TRADE FACILITATION TRADE LIBERALIZATION PRODUCTION FUNCTION PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT SKILLED LABOR TRADE DIVERSION TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION MUTUAL RECOGNITION GDP EXPORT PRICE GOODS ECONOMIES OF SCALE GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE MARGINAL REVENUE INVESTMENT SUPERMARKETS HOTELS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CUSTOMS UNIONS TARIFF TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SANCTIONS FREE TRADE AREA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX WORLD TRADE TARIFF CONCESSION MOST FAVORED NATION PREFERENTIAL TARIFF PRICE INDEXES FINANCIAL SECTOR OUTCOMES IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY TRADE REGIME CUSTOMS DECLARATIONS OUTSOURCING UNSKILLED LABOR TARIFF TREATMENT PRICES PRODUCTION COSTS BENEFITS ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS INEQUALITY World Bank Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| geographic_facet |
Europe and Central Asia Moldova |
| description |
Moldova’s recent Association Agreement
with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and
Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an
important opportunity, as well as challenges. This
analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank
Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the
DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a
Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model
calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing
the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and
the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as
well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration.
This section includes some additional facts and details that
complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the
second section, the paper presents the main elements of the
DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions
that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short
review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post
impact assessments of other Association Agreements between
the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE
models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE
and discusses the data used for assembling the Social
Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the
simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper
discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects
of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic
activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought
into discussion. The final section concludes and makes
several recommendations. |
| format |
Report |
| author |
World Bank |
| author_facet |
World Bank |
| author_sort |
World Bank |
| title |
Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_short |
Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_full |
Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_fullStr |
Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model |
| title_sort |
moldova trade study : note 2. is the dcfta good for moldova? analysis of moldova’s trade options using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model |
| publisher |
World Bank, Washington, DC |
| publishDate |
2016 |
| url |
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24043 |
| _version_ |
1764455522717663232 |
| spelling |
okr-10986-240432021-06-14T10:14:59Z Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model World Bank TARIFFS REGULATORY FRAMEWORK CUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION CUSTOMS UNION EXPORT MARKETS CURRENCY APPRECIATION MULTILATERAL TRADE PROFIT MARGINS EXPORT CAPACITY FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION PRODUCTION FOREIGN INVESTORS INCOME BARRIERS ON IMPORTS EXPECTATIONS TRADE BARRIERS REAL GDP PROPERTY RIGHTS PROTECTIONIST DOMESTIC MARKET EXPORTS NATIONAL TREATMENT STATISTICAL DATA ELASTICITY TRADE AREAS EXPORT PRICES ECONOMIC RELATIONS WELFARE TARIFF CONCESSIONS SPECIAL INCENTIVES OPTIMIZATION GROSS VALUE INCENTIVES FREE IMPORTS EQUILIBRIUM DISTRIBUTION INPUTS PAYMENTS FREE TRADE TECHNICAL REGULATIONS TRENDS PREFERENTIAL ACCESS TRADE AGREEMENTS CUSTOMS PROCEDURES CUSTOMS DUTIES TRADE IN GOODS INFLUENCE TRADE BALANCE FOREIGN TRADE TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY SAVINGS IMPORT PRICES COSTS TRADE RESTRICTIONS TELECOMMUNICATIONS RENT CUSTOMS PRODUCTIVITY FREE ACCESS MONOPOLY IMPERFECT COMPETITION QUOTAS CRITERIA EXPORT VOLUME MARKETS WTO TARIFF REDUCTIONS IMPORTS PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS TRADE POLICY ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL UTILITY TRADE AGREEMENT CUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT TRADE COMPETITIVENESS EXPORT MARKET PRODUCTION INPUTS TAXES PROTECTIONIST MEASURES INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS TRADE VOLUME EXPORT FACILITATION CONSUMPTION GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM TRADE IN SERVICES GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION VALUE ADDED TRAVEL CAPITAL WAGES TRADE PREFERENCES DEFLATORS INTERNATIONAL TRADE EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS VALUE COMPETITIVENESS TRADE ARRANGEMENTS PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS TRADE DEFICIT PURCHASING POWER ECONOMIC SECTORS DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES EXPORT PRODUCTS DEMAND NATIONAL INCOME DOMESTIC SALES EXPECTED VALUE ECONOMY CONSUMERS AGRICULTURE TAX RATES TRADE AREA TRADE FACILITATION TRADE LIBERALIZATION PRODUCTION FUNCTION PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT SKILLED LABOR TRADE DIVERSION TRADE ECONOMIC INTEGRATION MUTUAL RECOGNITION GDP EXPORT PRICE GOODS ECONOMIES OF SCALE GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES GROWTH RATE BILATERAL TRADE MARGINAL REVENUE INVESTMENT SUPERMARKETS HOTELS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CUSTOMS UNIONS TARIFF TRADE RELATIONS TRADE SANCTIONS FREE TRADE AREA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX WORLD TRADE TARIFF CONCESSION MOST FAVORED NATION PREFERENTIAL TARIFF PRICE INDEXES FINANCIAL SECTOR OUTCOMES IMPORT DUTIES IMPORT DUTY TRADE REGIME CUSTOMS DECLARATIONS OUTSOURCING UNSKILLED LABOR TARIFF TREATMENT PRICES PRODUCTION COSTS BENEFITS ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS INEQUALITY Moldova’s recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration. This section includes some additional facts and details that complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the second section, the paper presents the main elements of the DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post impact assessments of other Association Agreements between the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE and discusses the data used for assembling the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought into discussion. The final section concludes and makes several recommendations. 2016-04-11T19:42:18Z 2016-04-11T19:42:18Z 2016-01-30 Report http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24043 English en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Economic & Sector Work Economic & Sector Work :: Foreign Trade, FDI, and Capital Flows Study Europe and Central Asia Moldova |