Strengthening National Hydrometeorological Services through Cascading Forecasting : Investing for Sustainability and Impact across Global, Regional, and National Centers
Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often face considerable constraints in delivering the information needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation, which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather forec...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26089546/strengthening-national-hydrometeorological-services-through-cascading-forecasting-investing-sustainability-impact-across-global-regional-national-centers http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24151 |
| Summary: | Low-income countries’ hydrometeorological services often
face considerable constraints in delivering the information
needed to effectively drive early warning and climate adaptation,
which, if improved, could generate socioeconomic
benefits of about US$1.4 billion per year. Modern weather
forecasting adopts a cascading approach where numerical
products developed by global producing centers feed
regional and national models, with national forecasters
assimilating these and other data to produce information
customized for local users. The system depends on global
producing centers sharing their products, often through
voluntary action without dedicated financing, which is
not sustainable and does not fully leverage the capacity
of global producing centers to provide tailored information.
It would be economically viable for global producing
centers to provide their full suite of services to low-income
countries, producing likely global socioeconomic benefits of
US$200 million to US$500 million per year, outweighing
the costs by about 80 to one. Existing global producing
centers’ capacities and their potential benefits for lowincome
countries fulfill the utilitarian principal. Global
numerical weather prediction should therefore be treated
as a global public good. However, although recent global
development and climate agreements clearly suggest that
improving forecasting in low-income countries should
be a target of international cooperation, official development
assistance financing of high-income country global
producing centers to provide products to low-income
countries would be considered tied aid. Specialized mechanisms,
such as the Green Climate Fund, could provide
legitimate means to finance global producing centers to
provide global public services in support of low-income
countries. However, to realize the potential benefits, significant
investment is needed in regional and national
forecasting, early warning, and preparedness capacities. |
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