Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Hallegatte, Stephane, Bangalore, Mook, Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	FLOODING LIVING STANDARDS TERRORISM POOR PEOPLE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS RISKS CASUALTIES POVERTY REDUCTION EARLY WARNING RISK REDUCTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DISASTER SITUATIONS EMERGENCY RESPONSE INCOME INTEREST DISASTER‐RISK DISASTER SITUATION EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES MORAL HAZARD DISCOUNT RATE COUNTERFACTUAL GDP PER CAPITA INFORMATION ELASTICITY HEALTH CARE DEATH FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS WELFARE HIGH INEQUALITY RISK‐SHARING FLOOD PROTECTION PREVENTIVE ACTIONS DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS DAMAGES WEALTH BENEFICIARIES RISK‐TAKING MEASURES VALUE OF OUTPUT DISASTER MANAGEMENT EARTHQUAKES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA EXTREME WEATHER SAFETY NETS DEVELOPMENT INFORMAL INSURANCE SAVINGS CREDIT RATINGS NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE‐CHANGE REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS INCOME INEQUALITY FLOODED PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS NATURAL DISASTERS MARKETS RATES DISASTERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME LEVELS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UTILITY DISCOUNTED VALUE INSURANCE CONTRACTS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES FLOOD INSURANCE UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOGY DROUGHTS CONSUMPTION REGULATIONS HUMAN CAPITAL EMERGENCY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY CAPITAL DISASTER RISK IMPACT OF DISASTER VALUE LOSSES BANK APPLICATIONS CREDIT EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES NATIONAL INCOME VICTIMS DAMAGE IMPACT OF DISASTERS DISASTER INSURANCE RURAL ASSETS RISK‐ TAKING FLOOD ECONOMIC SITUATION RISK TRANSFER POOR PERSON INSURANCE DEATH TOLL TARGETING LOSS TRADE GDP FOOD INTAKE HURRICANE RISK UNINSURED LOSSES WARNING SYSTEMS POVERTY FATALITIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EVACUATION AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY WEATHER EVENTS SAFETY MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL HAZARDS RECONSTRUCTION BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INEQUALITY POOR HOUSEHOLDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26361020/assessing-socioeconomic-resilience-floods-90-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24503

Description
Summary:	This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most promising policy options to reduce welfare losses due to floods. Calibrated with household surveys, the model suggests that welfare losses from the July 2005 floods in Mumbai were almost double the asset losses, because losses were concentrated on poor and vulnerable populations. Applied to river floods in 90 countries, the model provides estimates of country-level socioeconomic resilience. Because floods disproportionally affect poor people, each $1 of global flood asset loss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affected country's national income, on average. The model also assesses and ranks policy levers to reduce flood losses in each country. It shows that considering asset losses is insufficient to assess disaster risk management policies. The same reduction in asset losses results in different welfare gains depending on who benefits. And some policies, such as adaptive social protection, do not reduce asset losses, but still reduce welfare losses. Asset and welfare losses can even move in opposite directions: increasing by one percentage point the share of income of the bottom 20 percent in the 90 countries would increase asset losses by 0.6 percent, since more wealth would be at risk. But it would also reduce the impact of income losses on wellbeing, and ultimately reduce welfare losses by 3.4 percent.

Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

Similar Items