Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most...

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Main Authors:	Hallegatte, Stephane, Bangalore, Mook, Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
Format:	Working Paper
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:	FLOODING LIVING STANDARDS TERRORISM POOR PEOPLE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS RISKS CASUALTIES POVERTY REDUCTION EARLY WARNING RISK REDUCTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DISASTER SITUATIONS EMERGENCY RESPONSE INCOME INTEREST DISASTER‐RISK DISASTER SITUATION EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES MORAL HAZARD DISCOUNT RATE COUNTERFACTUAL GDP PER CAPITA INFORMATION ELASTICITY HEALTH CARE DEATH FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS WELFARE HIGH INEQUALITY RISK‐SHARING FLOOD PROTECTION PREVENTIVE ACTIONS DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS DAMAGES WEALTH BENEFICIARIES RISK‐TAKING MEASURES VALUE OF OUTPUT DISASTER MANAGEMENT EARTHQUAKES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA EXTREME WEATHER SAFETY NETS DEVELOPMENT INFORMAL INSURANCE SAVINGS CREDIT RATINGS NATURAL DISASTER CLIMATE‐CHANGE REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS INCOME INEQUALITY FLOODED PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS NATURAL DISASTERS MARKETS RATES DISASTERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME LEVELS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UTILITY DISCOUNTED VALUE INSURANCE CONTRACTS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES FLOOD INSURANCE UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOGY DROUGHTS CONSUMPTION REGULATIONS HUMAN CAPITAL EMERGENCY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY CAPITAL DISASTER RISK IMPACT OF DISASTER VALUE LOSSES BANK APPLICATIONS CREDIT EXTREME EVENTS POOR COUNTRIES NATIONAL INCOME VICTIMS DAMAGE IMPACT OF DISASTERS DISASTER INSURANCE RURAL ASSETS RISK‐ TAKING FLOOD ECONOMIC SITUATION RISK TRANSFER POOR PERSON INSURANCE DEATH TOLL TARGETING LOSS TRADE GDP FOOD INTAKE HURRICANE RISK UNINSURED LOSSES WARNING SYSTEMS POVERTY FATALITIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION RISK MANAGEMENT POOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS EVACUATION AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY WEATHER EVENTS SAFETY MARGINAL UTILITY NATURAL HAZARDS RECONSTRUCTION BENEFITS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INEQUALITY POOR HOUSEHOLDS
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26361020/assessing-socioeconomic-resilience-floods-90-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24503

id	okr-10986-24503
recordtype	oai_dc
repository_type	Digital Repository
institution_category	Foreign Institution
institution	Digital Repositories
building	World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
collection	World Bank
language	English en_US
topic	FLOODING LIVING STANDARDS TERRORISM POOR PEOPLE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS RISKS CASUALTIES POVERTY REDUCTION EARLY WARNING RISK REDUCTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DISASTER SITUATIONS EMERGENCY RESPONSE INCOME INTEREST DISASTER‐RISK DISASTER SITUATION EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES MORAL HAZARD DISCOUNT RATE COUNTERFACTUAL GDP PER CAPITA INFORMATION ELASTICITY DISASTER SITUATION HEALTH CARE DEATH FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS WELFARE HIGH INEQUALITY RISK‐SHARING POOR PEOPLE FLOOD PROTECTION PREVENTIVE ACTIONS DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS DAMAGES WEALTH BENEFICIARIES RISK‐TAKING MEASURES VALUE OF OUTPUT DISASTER MANAGEMENT EARTHQUAKES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA EXTREME WEATHER SAFETY NETS EARLY WARNING POVERTY REDUCTION DEVELOPMENT INFORMAL INSURANCE SAVINGS CREDIT RATINGS NATURAL DISASTER MORAL HAZARD CLIMATE‐CHANGE REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS INCOME INEQUALITY FLOODED PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS NATURAL DISASTERS MARKETS RATES DISASTERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS EMERGENCY RESPONSE CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME LEVELS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UTILITY DISCOUNTED VALUE INSURANCE CONTRACTS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES FLOOD INSURANCE UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOGY DROUGHTS CONSUMPTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS REGULATIONS HUMAN CAPITAL EMERGENCY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY REDUCING POVERTY CAPITAL DISASTER RISK CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INEQUALITY RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES IMPACT OF DISASTER VALUE LOSSES BANK APPLICATIONS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CREDIT EXTREME EVENTS INSURANCE CONTRACTS POOR COUNTRIES NATIONAL INCOME VICTIMS DAMAGE IMPACT OF DISASTERS DISASTER INSURANCE RURAL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY ASSETS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐ TAKING FLOOD ECONOMIC SITUATION RISK TRANSFER POOR PERSON HUMAN CAPITAL PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DEATH TOLL TARGETING HIGH INEQUALITY LOSS TRADE GDP FOOD INTAKE HURRICANE RISK UNINSURED LOSSES RISK REDUCTION WARNING SYSTEMS POVERTY FATALITIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION HEALTH CARE INFORMAL INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POOR DISASTER RISK EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS RISK MANAGEMENT EVACUATION AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY DISASTER SITUATIONS WEATHER EVENTS SAFETY MARGINAL UTILITY POOR COUNTRIES RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES NATURAL HAZARDS RECONSTRUCTION BENEFITS NATURAL DISASTERS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INEQUALITY POOR PERSON POOR HOUSEHOLDS EARLY WARNINGS
spellingShingle	FLOODING LIVING STANDARDS TERRORISM POOR PEOPLE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS RISKS CASUALTIES POVERTY REDUCTION EARLY WARNING RISK REDUCTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DISASTER SITUATIONS EMERGENCY RESPONSE INCOME INTEREST DISASTER‐RISK DISASTER SITUATION EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES MORAL HAZARD DISCOUNT RATE COUNTERFACTUAL GDP PER CAPITA INFORMATION ELASTICITY DISASTER SITUATION HEALTH CARE DEATH FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS WELFARE HIGH INEQUALITY RISK‐SHARING POOR PEOPLE FLOOD PROTECTION PREVENTIVE ACTIONS DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS DAMAGES WEALTH BENEFICIARIES RISK‐TAKING MEASURES VALUE OF OUTPUT DISASTER MANAGEMENT EARTHQUAKES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA EXTREME WEATHER SAFETY NETS EARLY WARNING POVERTY REDUCTION DEVELOPMENT INFORMAL INSURANCE SAVINGS CREDIT RATINGS NATURAL DISASTER MORAL HAZARD CLIMATE‐CHANGE REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS INCOME INEQUALITY FLOODED PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS NATURAL DISASTERS MARKETS RATES DISASTERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS EMERGENCY RESPONSE CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME LEVELS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UTILITY DISCOUNTED VALUE INSURANCE CONTRACTS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES FLOOD INSURANCE UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOGY DROUGHTS CONSUMPTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS REGULATIONS HUMAN CAPITAL EMERGENCY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY REDUCING POVERTY CAPITAL DISASTER RISK CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INEQUALITY RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES IMPACT OF DISASTER VALUE LOSSES BANK APPLICATIONS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CREDIT EXTREME EVENTS INSURANCE CONTRACTS POOR COUNTRIES NATIONAL INCOME VICTIMS DAMAGE IMPACT OF DISASTERS DISASTER INSURANCE RURAL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY ASSETS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐ TAKING FLOOD ECONOMIC SITUATION RISK TRANSFER POOR PERSON HUMAN CAPITAL PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DEATH TOLL TARGETING HIGH INEQUALITY LOSS TRADE GDP FOOD INTAKE HURRICANE RISK UNINSURED LOSSES RISK REDUCTION WARNING SYSTEMS POVERTY FATALITIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION HEALTH CARE INFORMAL INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POOR DISASTER RISK EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS RISK MANAGEMENT EVACUATION AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY DISASTER SITUATIONS WEATHER EVENTS SAFETY MARGINAL UTILITY POOR COUNTRIES RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES NATURAL HAZARDS RECONSTRUCTION BENEFITS NATURAL DISASTERS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INEQUALITY POOR PERSON POOR HOUSEHOLDS EARLY WARNINGS Hallegatte, Stephane Bangalore, Mook Vogt-Schilb, Adrien Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
relation	Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7663
description	This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most promising policy options to reduce welfare losses due to floods. Calibrated with household surveys, the model suggests that welfare losses from the July 2005 floods in Mumbai were almost double the asset losses, because losses were concentrated on poor and vulnerable populations. Applied to river floods in 90 countries, the model provides estimates of country-level socioeconomic resilience. Because floods disproportionally affect poor people, each $1 of global flood asset loss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affected country's national income, on average. The model also assesses and ranks policy levers to reduce flood losses in each country. It shows that considering asset losses is insufficient to assess disaster risk management policies. The same reduction in asset losses results in different welfare gains depending on who benefits. And some policies, such as adaptive social protection, do not reduce asset losses, but still reduce welfare losses. Asset and welfare losses can even move in opposite directions: increasing by one percentage point the share of income of the bottom 20 percent in the 90 countries would increase asset losses by 0.6 percent, since more wealth would be at risk. But it would also reduce the impact of income losses on wellbeing, and ultimately reduce welfare losses by 3.4 percent.
format	Working Paper
author	Hallegatte, Stephane Bangalore, Mook Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
author_facet	Hallegatte, Stephane Bangalore, Mook Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
author_sort	Hallegatte, Stephane
title	Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
title_short	Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
title_full	Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
title_fullStr	Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
title_full_unstemmed	Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries
title_sort	assessing socioeconomic resilience to floods in 90 countries
publisher	World Bank, Washington, DC
publishDate	2016
url	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26361020/assessing-socioeconomic-resilience-floods-90-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24503
_version_	1764456888945082368
spelling	okr-10986-245032021-06-14T10:15:18Z Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries Hallegatte, Stephane Bangalore, Mook Vogt-Schilb, Adrien FLOODING LIVING STANDARDS TERRORISM POOR PEOPLE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS RISKS CASUALTIES POVERTY REDUCTION EARLY WARNING RISK REDUCTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DISASTER SITUATIONS EMERGENCY RESPONSE INCOME INTEREST DISASTER‐RISK DISASTER SITUATION EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES MORAL HAZARD DISCOUNT RATE COUNTERFACTUAL GDP PER CAPITA INFORMATION ELASTICITY DISASTER SITUATION HEALTH CARE DEATH FOOD POLICY RURAL LIVELIHOODS WELFARE HIGH INEQUALITY RISK‐SHARING POOR PEOPLE FLOOD PROTECTION PREVENTIVE ACTIONS DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS DAMAGES WEALTH BENEFICIARIES RISK‐TAKING MEASURES VALUE OF OUTPUT DISASTER MANAGEMENT EARTHQUAKES HOUSEHOLD‐LEVEL DATA EXTREME WEATHER SAFETY NETS EARLY WARNING POVERTY REDUCTION DEVELOPMENT INFORMAL INSURANCE SAVINGS CREDIT RATINGS NATURAL DISASTER MORAL HAZARD CLIMATE‐CHANGE REDUCING POVERTY FLOODS INCOME INEQUALITY FLOODED PRODUCTIVITY TRANSFERS NATURAL DISASTERS MARKETS RATES DISASTERS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS EMERGENCY RESPONSE CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME LEVELS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE UTILITY DISCOUNTED VALUE INSURANCE CONTRACTS RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES FLOOD INSURANCE UNEMPLOYMENT TECHNOLOGY DROUGHTS CONSUMPTION SOCIAL SAFETY NETS REGULATIONS HUMAN CAPITAL EMERGENCY INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY REDUCING POVERTY CAPITAL DISASTER RISK CLIMATE CHANGE INCOME INEQUALITY RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES IMPACT OF DISASTER VALUE LOSSES BANK APPLICATIONS HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS CREDIT EXTREME EVENTS INSURANCE CONTRACTS POOR COUNTRIES NATIONAL INCOME VICTIMS DAMAGE IMPACT OF DISASTERS DISASTER INSURANCE RURAL INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY ASSETS DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK‐ TAKING FLOOD ECONOMIC SITUATION RISK TRANSFER POOR PERSON HUMAN CAPITAL PREVENTIVE ACTIONS INSURANCE SOCIAL SAFETY NETS DEATH TOLL TARGETING HIGH INEQUALITY LOSS TRADE GDP FOOD INTAKE HURRICANE RISK UNINSURED LOSSES RISK REDUCTION WARNING SYSTEMS POVERTY FATALITIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION HEALTH CARE INFORMAL INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION POOR DISASTER RISK EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS RISK MANAGEMENT EVACUATION AVERAGE PRODUCTIVITY DISASTER SITUATIONS WEATHER EVENTS SAFETY MARGINAL UTILITY POOR COUNTRIES RISK MANAGEMENT POLICIES NATURAL HAZARDS RECONSTRUCTION BENEFITS NATURAL DISASTERS DEVELOPMENT POLICY INEQUALITY POOR PERSON POOR HOUSEHOLDS EARLY WARNINGS This paper presents a model to assess the socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of an economy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact of disaster-related asset losses on welfare, and a tool to help decision makers identify the most promising policy options to reduce welfare losses due to floods. Calibrated with household surveys, the model suggests that welfare losses from the July 2005 floods in Mumbai were almost double the asset losses, because losses were concentrated on poor and vulnerable populations. Applied to river floods in 90 countries, the model provides estimates of country-level socioeconomic resilience. Because floods disproportionally affect poor people, each $1 of global flood asset loss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affected country's national income, on average. The model also assesses and ranks policy levers to reduce flood losses in each country. It shows that considering asset losses is insufficient to assess disaster risk management policies. The same reduction in asset losses results in different welfare gains depending on who benefits. And some policies, such as adaptive social protection, do not reduce asset losses, but still reduce welfare losses. Asset and welfare losses can even move in opposite directions: increasing by one percentage point the share of income of the bottom 20 percent in the 90 countries would increase asset losses by 0.6 percent, since more wealth would be at risk. But it would also reduce the impact of income losses on wellbeing, and ultimately reduce welfare losses by 3.4 percent. 2016-06-13T20:59:47Z 2016-06-13T20:59:47Z 2016-05 Working Paper http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/05/26361020/assessing-socioeconomic-resilience-floods-90-countries http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24503 English en_US Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7663 CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/ World Bank World Bank, Washington, DC Publications & Research Publications & Research :: Policy Research Working Paper

Assessing Socioeconomic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

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