Long-Term Energy Demand Forecasting in Romania : An End-Use Demand Modeling Approach
This study develops an end-use energy demand analysis model for Romania to project energy demand by sector and end-use for 2015-50. The study finds that Romania's energy demand in 2050 would be 34 percent higher than the level in 2013. The ind...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26442453/long-term-energy-demand-forecasting-romania-end-use-demand http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24535 |
| Summary: | This study develops an end-use energy
demand analysis model for Romania to project energy demand
by sector and end-use for 2015-50. The study finds that
Romania's energy demand in 2050 would be 34 percent
higher than the level in 2013. The industry sector would be
the largest final energy-consuming sector, surpassing the
residential sector from 2025 onward. The services sector
would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption in
line with the expected structural change from manufacturing
to services. Although population in the country is projected
to drop by 7 percent in 2050 from the 2013 level,
electricity demand would increase by 46 percent over the
same period, because of increased household income and the
expanded service sector, which is relatively electricity
intensive. Still, per capita electricity consumption in
Romania will be about half the European Union 28 average. At
the end-use level, thermal processes in the industry sector,
space heating in the residential and services sectors, and
road transportation in the transport sector would be
dominant throughout the study period. The study also shows
that improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system
would be the main channel to cut energy demand in the country. |
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